Monday, September 6, 2004
I just finished reviewing the data on Ivan. The National Weather Service is currently calling for it to hit Biscayne Bay. That's the good news, because this far in advance they're never right. There is an upper level low over the eastern Caribbean. Since yesterday it seems to have weakened. This is the main feature which should turn it more to the north. It should start to influence it tomorrow through Wed. By Thursday AM we should have a pretty good idea for its future track. If my hunch is correct I suspect we'll see a course south of the projected one. After that there's not much else out there to change it's course, UNLESS it slows down which could allow a frontal trough to move into the picture. The key will be just how much that low diverts it. In addition the subtropical high pressure ridge appears to have shifted a little to the south. This may or may not be good news. Anyway I'll keep you abreast of future developments, keep your fingers crossed.
Tuesday, September 7
Hi Guys, The upper level low in the eastern Caribbean has weakened further and is moving west. It therefore should have only a minimal impact on Ivan. Based on this my current track heads Ivan toward the Yucatan Channel, from there its course will depend on the presence or absence of a frontal system, either way it doesn't look like we'll get a direct hit and probably a total miss. My track is still south of the current NWS's. Only time will tell.
Until the next update.
Wednesday, September 8
Ivan has not significantly veered from yesterdays projected track, yet. The upper level low, now in the central Caribbean, is persisting and is now moving slower than Ivan. It should interact with Ivan tomorrow potentially moving "him" a little to the north. We'll know how much by Friday. The NHC is currently forecasting Ivan to pass just north of Jamaica and then to cross western Cuba near Havana and move into the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal system is supposed to be approaching by then which could shift it more to the north. The faster Ivan moves probably the better for us. If it slows it could potentially shift the course more to the north.
My track, still pretty much the same, toward the Yucatan Channel, may shift slightly to the east to near western Cuba. This should still be far enough to our west to keep us out of anything serious. We should have a better idea by Friday. A path south side of Jamaica would be encouraging.
Until tomorrow. Matt
Thursday, September 9
The NHC gave us a scare this AM by targeting Ivan to Flamingo, Florida Bay and South Florida. They have revised their track since then with Ivan heading toward Ft. Meyers @ 2 PM and now, 5 PM, towards the Panhandle. One of there models turns it north early into the Bahamas. The bottom line is that they don't know. There are numerous variables which could affect it and they are constantly changing and Ivan can affect the variables themselves. Their current track takes it across western Cuba near Havana very similar to yesterday's projection.
The reality is that Ivan has not changed course yet and is still headed towards the Yucatan Channel. A stalled frontal trough just to our north should start to affect it as soon as it gets north of Cuba. The further west it goes, probably the better for us. Our coordinates, in Miami, are 25.6 N and 80.5 W. It would be nice if it was less than or equal to 21.2 N when it crosses the 80th parallel.
Cross your toes!
Until tomorrow, Matt.
P.S. Realize the NHC's forecast track is an average of several computer models. Usually none of which are actually projecting the course they outline. Some are to the right, some to the left. They pick the middle. When storms are over 2 days out the amount of error in there forecast is huge so try not to get psyched out by local news coverage. In their defense some storms are easier to predict than others. This one will be more difficult due to very weak steering currents once it gets near Cuba. It should slow down as it approaches it.
Friday, September 10
Hi Everyone! Ivan continues on a WNW track and should hit the southern coast of Jamaica tonight. It appears to be turning slightly more to the NW. The NHC is currently projecting it to cross west-central Cuba near Havana and from there head toward the Panhandle. My track is a little west of theirs with Ivan crossing western Cuba near the Isle of Youth (Isle of Pines). The 5 PM coordinates are 17.0 N and 76.2 W. When it reaches our latitude, 25.6 N, we would like to see Ivan greater than or equal to 82.0 W to avoid hurricane conditions, if it reaches > 83.2 W we may even avoid tropical storm conditions. If it continues it's current course that may just happen. Unfortunately it's course could change without notice, though the further west it goes probably the better for us. It should pass the 80th parallel tomorrow (see yesterday's report) and hopefully the 82nd on Sunday. As it progresses further north I'll be able to better predict just what type of conditions we can expect. I currently do NOT anticipate Hurricane conditions for us.
Until tomorrow, Matt
Saturday, September 11
Hi ! The NHC models are finally coming into agreement with my Reality Based Model,(i.e. based on what it is actually doing rather than what it might do). The reality is that Ivan has not significantly changed course for 6 days. The only thing that has changed have been the weather service's projections with the local media jumping on any model which projected a move in our direction.
An upper level low in the central Atlantic, moving east, should help to keep the subtropical ridge strong enough to continue to steer Ivan toward the Yucatan Channel, the western tip of Cuba and the Isle of Youth. If this holds true we should be in good shape for avoiding any significant weather. Ivan should be crossing the 80th parallel soon and will likely be under 19.0 degrees N which is in good support of good weather for us.
Until tomorrow, Matt.
P.S. If people who have started to receive updates later would like
I can re-send earlier updates which started on 9/6.
Sunday, September 12, 2004 5:38 PM
Ivan as of 9/12/04 5 PM
Hi !
As of 5 PM Ivan was located @ 19.3 N and 82.5 W and continues to head WNW towards the Yucatan Channel and the western tip of Cuba. After entering the Gulf of Mexico it should turn north and eventually northeast toward a stalled frontal trough. It's exact location of landfall will depend upon the location of the trough when it gets there.
Southeast Florida is currently looking pretty good and though I would recommend waiting until Ivan is north of us, for what its worth for your peace of mind, I'll let you know that Claudia took our shutters down this AM.
Best wishes, Matt.
For Jeanne,
9/14/04 Hi everyone, I didn't want to report today and had hoped to be finished with Ivan but due to multiple requests I am writing an update.
At 5 PM Ivan was located at 24.2 N and 86.6 W and as expected is moving generally to the north. The frontal trough to it's north appears to have weakened which should allow Ivan to continue almost straight until landfall, which currently appears to be between Mobile Bay and Ft. Walton Beach, centered around the Alabama-Florida border / Pensacola area.
At 5 PM Jeanne was located at 16.8 N and 63.9 W. Though I feel it's too early to give a comfortable forecast for Jeanne since it hasn't been around long enough to establish any significant trends, it currently looks as if it should continue towards the W and WNW the next 1-2 days. It should then start to turn NW as it approaches the Bahamas as it moves around the periphery of an elongated high pressure ridge located between it and the Bahamas. If this ridge persists it should steer "her" away from us. Again I ideally like more time to observe storms for REAL trends before making stronger predictions.
Fortunately Ivan behaved as expected and hopefully so will Jeanne.
Until the next update, Matt.
9/16/04
Hi !
Ivan made landfall early this AM near the Alabama / Florida border bringing it's strongest winds and surge from Gulf Shores Alabama (near the state line) to Pensacola.
At 11 AM Jeanne was located at 18.8 N and 68.7 N, over the NE corner of the Dominican Republic. Jeanne should cross the northern half of the D.R. today in a general WNW direction. After it exits the coast, it should start to turn more toward the NW. The good news is that Jeanne is currently over land and encountering some shear which will make it slow to strengthen. There are several features which could influence Jeanne's future course. The primary factor is the elongated high pressure ridge to it's north. If Jeanne continues it's present speed of around 10 MPH or speeds up, it should persist long enough to steer Jeanne to the northwest and eventually north away from us, (if Ivan moves SLOWLY to the northeast this would help this to occur). This AM the southern portion of this ridge looked attenuated with the potential to collapse or move north. With time this will probably occur. If Jeanne slows she may be stranded until an new ridge builds to its north pushing it in a more westward direction. This does NOT mean it will hit us. A track to our south toward the Florida straits or to parts of Florida to our north are possible, depending on the timing.
Isn't chaos theory great ! ? I'll keep you posted. Matt
9/17/04
Hi everyone!
At 5 PM Tropical DEPRESSION Jeanne was located at 20.2 N & 71.8 W, over the north central coast of the Dominican Republic. It has been disrupted significantly by being over land and by upper level shearing winds. The remnants of Ivan appear to be having a beneficial affect on maintaining the southern end of the elongated subtropical ridge. Once Jeanne emerges from the coast of the D.R. it should continue to move along the periphery of this ridge. This should take the storm NW and eventually N. If this occurs South Florida should be OK. (I'll breath easier however when it's to our north, but things look significantly better now.)
Karl in the far eastern Atlantic should be steered N, away from land, as it encounters a trough in the central Atlantic in a few days.
So far , so good. Matt
9/22/04
Hi everyone!
At 5 PM Jeanne was located @ 26.1 N & 69.0 W and was moving WSW @ 5 mph. With regard to Jeanne there's good news and bad news. The bad news is that Jeanne moved too slowly and yesterday morning the subtropical ridge retreated to the east stranding Jeanne approximately 150 miles north and 750 miles east of us, (see Th. 9/16/04 update). Since then it has been meandering waiting for a new ridge to build in to direct it. Fortunately, thanks to Ivan, this occurred after it was to our north. Unfortunately it has subsequently drifted southward. The good news however is that it looks like it should still miss us. High pressure over us and upper level westerly winds should deflect it to the north. It may impact northern parts of the state or the Carolinas.
Karl is heading N and is no threat to the US. Lisa should encounter a trough in the central Atlantic in a couple of days and start turning to the NW and eventually N too.
The one we'll have to watch, which hasn't even formed yet, is Matthew !!
Until the next time, Matt.
9/23/04 Jeanne as of 11 AM 9/23/04
Hi all !
I have already begun to receive distress calls and emails regarding Jeanne. Please do NOT panic. Jeanne's current motion is NOT unexpected. I anticipated this to happen in the 9/16/04 update. Yesterday's forecast so far still holds true. Currently I would not anticipate a landfall south of Ft. Pierce. Unlike Frances, Jeanne is a compact storm with hurricane force winds extending only 30 miles SW (our side of the storm)from the center and storm force wind 100 miles to the SW. If it's latitude is > or equal to 27.0 N when it reaches 80.0 W longitude we should not experience any major weather. The NHC is currently calling for it to be @ 27.3 N when it reaches 80.2 W. I am currently in agreement with that. At 11 AM today it was located @ 25.6 N & 69.7 W, again our coordinates are approximately 25.6 N & 80.5 W (each degree is approximately 70 miles).
Claudia requests that you please turn off local TV stations.
Until next time, Matt.
9/24/04 5 AM
At 5 AM Jeanne was located @ 26.1 N & 71.6 W and was moving W @ 8 mph. Jeanne is now following the perimeter of a large high pressure system over the Atlantic. Currently this ridge turns NW just to our east. Jeanne should do the same. The question will be where this edge will be on Sunday morning. The NHC is currently forecasting it to be approximately where it is now. If that is the case Miami should experience similar conditions as we had with Frances, occasional squalls with gusts to 40-60 mph. Boca could receive more. A direct hit is not predicted for them but if the turn occurs later they could receive significant weather and they should prepare. The key will be just when the turn occurs. If necessary I'll make updates twice a day for the next couple of days as Jeanne approaches and things get clearer. With short term forecasting the NHC is usually very good and you can view their data @ www.nhc.noaa.gov or watch the weather channel. Local news often project their own tracks which invariable point at us.
Until this evening, Matt.
9/24/04 5PM
At 5 PM Jeanne was located @ 26.4 N & 73.5 W and was moving west @ 12 mph. My current track has not changed from yesterday's.
The timing of when Jeanne starts to turn to the NW will be the main factor in determining how much, if any, fringe affects we may receive. I anticipate that this move should start by this time tomorrow. I will be writing an update tomorrow morning and around 5 PM.
Matt
9/25 5 AM
At 5 AM Jeanne was located @ 26.5 N & 76.2 W and was moving west @ 14 mph. In looking at the water vapor loops this morning Jeanne appears to be starting to encounter some upper level shear from the west and southwest. This should help to attenuate the SW side of the storm and I anticipate that it will start to nudge a little more to the north soon. My forecast track, which now looks similar to the NHC's, has not changed since 9/23. Yesterday's projections still hold. We'll just have to wait and see when the turn starts to know how much wind we'll get. I do not anticipate hurricane conditions for Miami and south. Look for what ever weather we do get to occur tonight and early tomorrow morning.
Until this afternoon, Matt.
9/25 2 PM
At 1 PM Jeanne was located @ 26.8 N and 77.9 W. It's 2:15 PM now and over the past 3 hours Jeanne has taken a decided wobble to the WNW and is probably close to 27.0 degrees north latitude now. This is good news for us in Miami and could translate into a less severe storm for our friends and family in Boca. Though it may just be a simple wobble, this close to land it may have a major impact as to where ultimate landfall takes place. We will still probably experience some squally weather with gusts to 40-60 mph primarily out of the north and northwest. Cross your fingers, I'll send another report around 5 PM.
Matt.
9/25 5 PM
At 5 PM Jeanne was located @ 27.1 N & 78.8 W and was moving to the W-WNW @ 14 mph. A gradual turn more to the WNW is anticipated over night. After landfall it should turn toward the NW and eventually N. My track for Jeanne is unchanged from 9/23 with landfall expected north of Ft. Pierce (? Vero vicinity). Though the ridge didn't move much the upper level shear from the SW has nudged Jeanne slightly to the north. It appears that Boca may just miss the southern eyewall and I anticipate Category 1 conditions for them similar to what they experienced with Frances.
Good luck to everyone tonight, take care, Matt.
9/26 5/AM
Jeanne made landfall around 1 AM at 27.3 north latitude, just north of Ft. Pierce with the greatest surge and winds affecting the Vero Beach to Sebastian area. My heart felt concerns go out to our friends with family in Sebastian. At 5 AM Jeanne was located @ 27.4 n & 81.1 W. It should move up through the state today and may even emerge briefly into the Gulf of Mexico in the Cedar Key - Steinhatchee area. This will hopefully be my last update on Jeanne. Elsewhere in the tropics, things are quiet for now.
Best wishes, Matt.
I think that's it Matt.
I just finished reviewing the data on Ivan. The National Weather Service is currently calling for it to hit Biscayne Bay. That's the good news, because this far in advance they're never right. There is an upper level low over the eastern Caribbean. Since yesterday it seems to have weakened. This is the main feature which should turn it more to the north. It should start to influence it tomorrow through Wed. By Thursday AM we should have a pretty good idea for its future track. If my hunch is correct I suspect we'll see a course south of the projected one. After that there's not much else out there to change it's course, UNLESS it slows down which could allow a frontal trough to move into the picture. The key will be just how much that low diverts it. In addition the subtropical high pressure ridge appears to have shifted a little to the south. This may or may not be good news. Anyway I'll keep you abreast of future developments, keep your fingers crossed.
Tuesday, September 7
Hi Guys, The upper level low in the eastern Caribbean has weakened further and is moving west. It therefore should have only a minimal impact on Ivan. Based on this my current track heads Ivan toward the Yucatan Channel, from there its course will depend on the presence or absence of a frontal system, either way it doesn't look like we'll get a direct hit and probably a total miss. My track is still south of the current NWS's. Only time will tell.
Until the next update.
Wednesday, September 8
Ivan has not significantly veered from yesterdays projected track, yet. The upper level low, now in the central Caribbean, is persisting and is now moving slower than Ivan. It should interact with Ivan tomorrow potentially moving "him" a little to the north. We'll know how much by Friday. The NHC is currently forecasting Ivan to pass just north of Jamaica and then to cross western Cuba near Havana and move into the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal system is supposed to be approaching by then which could shift it more to the north. The faster Ivan moves probably the better for us. If it slows it could potentially shift the course more to the north.
My track, still pretty much the same, toward the Yucatan Channel, may shift slightly to the east to near western Cuba. This should still be far enough to our west to keep us out of anything serious. We should have a better idea by Friday. A path south side of Jamaica would be encouraging.
Until tomorrow. Matt
Thursday, September 9
The NHC gave us a scare this AM by targeting Ivan to Flamingo, Florida Bay and South Florida. They have revised their track since then with Ivan heading toward Ft. Meyers @ 2 PM and now, 5 PM, towards the Panhandle. One of there models turns it north early into the Bahamas. The bottom line is that they don't know. There are numerous variables which could affect it and they are constantly changing and Ivan can affect the variables themselves. Their current track takes it across western Cuba near Havana very similar to yesterday's projection.
The reality is that Ivan has not changed course yet and is still headed towards the Yucatan Channel. A stalled frontal trough just to our north should start to affect it as soon as it gets north of Cuba. The further west it goes, probably the better for us. Our coordinates, in Miami, are 25.6 N and 80.5 W. It would be nice if it was less than or equal to 21.2 N when it crosses the 80th parallel.
Cross your toes!
Until tomorrow, Matt.
P.S. Realize the NHC's forecast track is an average of several computer models. Usually none of which are actually projecting the course they outline. Some are to the right, some to the left. They pick the middle. When storms are over 2 days out the amount of error in there forecast is huge so try not to get psyched out by local news coverage. In their defense some storms are easier to predict than others. This one will be more difficult due to very weak steering currents once it gets near Cuba. It should slow down as it approaches it.
Friday, September 10
Hi Everyone! Ivan continues on a WNW track and should hit the southern coast of Jamaica tonight. It appears to be turning slightly more to the NW. The NHC is currently projecting it to cross west-central Cuba near Havana and from there head toward the Panhandle. My track is a little west of theirs with Ivan crossing western Cuba near the Isle of Youth (Isle of Pines). The 5 PM coordinates are 17.0 N and 76.2 W. When it reaches our latitude, 25.6 N, we would like to see Ivan greater than or equal to 82.0 W to avoid hurricane conditions, if it reaches > 83.2 W we may even avoid tropical storm conditions. If it continues it's current course that may just happen. Unfortunately it's course could change without notice, though the further west it goes probably the better for us. It should pass the 80th parallel tomorrow (see yesterday's report) and hopefully the 82nd on Sunday. As it progresses further north I'll be able to better predict just what type of conditions we can expect. I currently do NOT anticipate Hurricane conditions for us.
Until tomorrow, Matt
Saturday, September 11
Hi ! The NHC models are finally coming into agreement with my Reality Based Model,(i.e. based on what it is actually doing rather than what it might do). The reality is that Ivan has not significantly changed course for 6 days. The only thing that has changed have been the weather service's projections with the local media jumping on any model which projected a move in our direction.
An upper level low in the central Atlantic, moving east, should help to keep the subtropical ridge strong enough to continue to steer Ivan toward the Yucatan Channel, the western tip of Cuba and the Isle of Youth. If this holds true we should be in good shape for avoiding any significant weather. Ivan should be crossing the 80th parallel soon and will likely be under 19.0 degrees N which is in good support of good weather for us.
Until tomorrow, Matt.
P.S. If people who have started to receive updates later would like
I can re-send earlier updates which started on 9/6.
Sunday, September 12, 2004 5:38 PM
Ivan as of 9/12/04 5 PM
Hi !
As of 5 PM Ivan was located @ 19.3 N and 82.5 W and continues to head WNW towards the Yucatan Channel and the western tip of Cuba. After entering the Gulf of Mexico it should turn north and eventually northeast toward a stalled frontal trough. It's exact location of landfall will depend upon the location of the trough when it gets there.
Southeast Florida is currently looking pretty good and though I would recommend waiting until Ivan is north of us, for what its worth for your peace of mind, I'll let you know that Claudia took our shutters down this AM.
Best wishes, Matt.
For Jeanne,
9/14/04 Hi everyone, I didn't want to report today and had hoped to be finished with Ivan but due to multiple requests I am writing an update.
At 5 PM Ivan was located at 24.2 N and 86.6 W and as expected is moving generally to the north. The frontal trough to it's north appears to have weakened which should allow Ivan to continue almost straight until landfall, which currently appears to be between Mobile Bay and Ft. Walton Beach, centered around the Alabama-Florida border / Pensacola area.
At 5 PM Jeanne was located at 16.8 N and 63.9 W. Though I feel it's too early to give a comfortable forecast for Jeanne since it hasn't been around long enough to establish any significant trends, it currently looks as if it should continue towards the W and WNW the next 1-2 days. It should then start to turn NW as it approaches the Bahamas as it moves around the periphery of an elongated high pressure ridge located between it and the Bahamas. If this ridge persists it should steer "her" away from us. Again I ideally like more time to observe storms for REAL trends before making stronger predictions.
Fortunately Ivan behaved as expected and hopefully so will Jeanne.
Until the next update, Matt.
9/16/04
Hi !
Ivan made landfall early this AM near the Alabama / Florida border bringing it's strongest winds and surge from Gulf Shores Alabama (near the state line) to Pensacola.
At 11 AM Jeanne was located at 18.8 N and 68.7 N, over the NE corner of the Dominican Republic. Jeanne should cross the northern half of the D.R. today in a general WNW direction. After it exits the coast, it should start to turn more toward the NW. The good news is that Jeanne is currently over land and encountering some shear which will make it slow to strengthen. There are several features which could influence Jeanne's future course. The primary factor is the elongated high pressure ridge to it's north. If Jeanne continues it's present speed of around 10 MPH or speeds up, it should persist long enough to steer Jeanne to the northwest and eventually north away from us, (if Ivan moves SLOWLY to the northeast this would help this to occur). This AM the southern portion of this ridge looked attenuated with the potential to collapse or move north. With time this will probably occur. If Jeanne slows she may be stranded until an new ridge builds to its north pushing it in a more westward direction. This does NOT mean it will hit us. A track to our south toward the Florida straits or to parts of Florida to our north are possible, depending on the timing.
Isn't chaos theory great ! ? I'll keep you posted. Matt
9/17/04
Hi everyone!
At 5 PM Tropical DEPRESSION Jeanne was located at 20.2 N & 71.8 W, over the north central coast of the Dominican Republic. It has been disrupted significantly by being over land and by upper level shearing winds. The remnants of Ivan appear to be having a beneficial affect on maintaining the southern end of the elongated subtropical ridge. Once Jeanne emerges from the coast of the D.R. it should continue to move along the periphery of this ridge. This should take the storm NW and eventually N. If this occurs South Florida should be OK. (I'll breath easier however when it's to our north, but things look significantly better now.)
Karl in the far eastern Atlantic should be steered N, away from land, as it encounters a trough in the central Atlantic in a few days.
So far , so good. Matt
9/22/04
Hi everyone!
At 5 PM Jeanne was located @ 26.1 N & 69.0 W and was moving WSW @ 5 mph. With regard to Jeanne there's good news and bad news. The bad news is that Jeanne moved too slowly and yesterday morning the subtropical ridge retreated to the east stranding Jeanne approximately 150 miles north and 750 miles east of us, (see Th. 9/16/04 update). Since then it has been meandering waiting for a new ridge to build in to direct it. Fortunately, thanks to Ivan, this occurred after it was to our north. Unfortunately it has subsequently drifted southward. The good news however is that it looks like it should still miss us. High pressure over us and upper level westerly winds should deflect it to the north. It may impact northern parts of the state or the Carolinas.
Karl is heading N and is no threat to the US. Lisa should encounter a trough in the central Atlantic in a couple of days and start turning to the NW and eventually N too.
The one we'll have to watch, which hasn't even formed yet, is Matthew !!
Until the next time, Matt.
9/23/04 Jeanne as of 11 AM 9/23/04
Hi all !
I have already begun to receive distress calls and emails regarding Jeanne. Please do NOT panic. Jeanne's current motion is NOT unexpected. I anticipated this to happen in the 9/16/04 update. Yesterday's forecast so far still holds true. Currently I would not anticipate a landfall south of Ft. Pierce. Unlike Frances, Jeanne is a compact storm with hurricane force winds extending only 30 miles SW (our side of the storm)from the center and storm force wind 100 miles to the SW. If it's latitude is > or equal to 27.0 N when it reaches 80.0 W longitude we should not experience any major weather. The NHC is currently calling for it to be @ 27.3 N when it reaches 80.2 W. I am currently in agreement with that. At 11 AM today it was located @ 25.6 N & 69.7 W, again our coordinates are approximately 25.6 N & 80.5 W (each degree is approximately 70 miles).
Claudia requests that you please turn off local TV stations.
Until next time, Matt.
9/24/04 5 AM
At 5 AM Jeanne was located @ 26.1 N & 71.6 W and was moving W @ 8 mph. Jeanne is now following the perimeter of a large high pressure system over the Atlantic. Currently this ridge turns NW just to our east. Jeanne should do the same. The question will be where this edge will be on Sunday morning. The NHC is currently forecasting it to be approximately where it is now. If that is the case Miami should experience similar conditions as we had with Frances, occasional squalls with gusts to 40-60 mph. Boca could receive more. A direct hit is not predicted for them but if the turn occurs later they could receive significant weather and they should prepare. The key will be just when the turn occurs. If necessary I'll make updates twice a day for the next couple of days as Jeanne approaches and things get clearer. With short term forecasting the NHC is usually very good and you can view their data @ www.nhc.noaa.gov or watch the weather channel. Local news often project their own tracks which invariable point at us.
Until this evening, Matt.
9/24/04 5PM
At 5 PM Jeanne was located @ 26.4 N & 73.5 W and was moving west @ 12 mph. My current track has not changed from yesterday's.
The timing of when Jeanne starts to turn to the NW will be the main factor in determining how much, if any, fringe affects we may receive. I anticipate that this move should start by this time tomorrow. I will be writing an update tomorrow morning and around 5 PM.
Matt
9/25 5 AM
At 5 AM Jeanne was located @ 26.5 N & 76.2 W and was moving west @ 14 mph. In looking at the water vapor loops this morning Jeanne appears to be starting to encounter some upper level shear from the west and southwest. This should help to attenuate the SW side of the storm and I anticipate that it will start to nudge a little more to the north soon. My forecast track, which now looks similar to the NHC's, has not changed since 9/23. Yesterday's projections still hold. We'll just have to wait and see when the turn starts to know how much wind we'll get. I do not anticipate hurricane conditions for Miami and south. Look for what ever weather we do get to occur tonight and early tomorrow morning.
Until this afternoon, Matt.
9/25 2 PM
At 1 PM Jeanne was located @ 26.8 N and 77.9 W. It's 2:15 PM now and over the past 3 hours Jeanne has taken a decided wobble to the WNW and is probably close to 27.0 degrees north latitude now. This is good news for us in Miami and could translate into a less severe storm for our friends and family in Boca. Though it may just be a simple wobble, this close to land it may have a major impact as to where ultimate landfall takes place. We will still probably experience some squally weather with gusts to 40-60 mph primarily out of the north and northwest. Cross your fingers, I'll send another report around 5 PM.
Matt.
9/25 5 PM
At 5 PM Jeanne was located @ 27.1 N & 78.8 W and was moving to the W-WNW @ 14 mph. A gradual turn more to the WNW is anticipated over night. After landfall it should turn toward the NW and eventually N. My track for Jeanne is unchanged from 9/23 with landfall expected north of Ft. Pierce (? Vero vicinity). Though the ridge didn't move much the upper level shear from the SW has nudged Jeanne slightly to the north. It appears that Boca may just miss the southern eyewall and I anticipate Category 1 conditions for them similar to what they experienced with Frances.
Good luck to everyone tonight, take care, Matt.
9/26 5/AM
Jeanne made landfall around 1 AM at 27.3 north latitude, just north of Ft. Pierce with the greatest surge and winds affecting the Vero Beach to Sebastian area. My heart felt concerns go out to our friends with family in Sebastian. At 5 AM Jeanne was located @ 27.4 n & 81.1 W. It should move up through the state today and may even emerge briefly into the Gulf of Mexico in the Cedar Key - Steinhatchee area. This will hopefully be my last update on Jeanne. Elsewhere in the tropics, things are quiet for now.
Best wishes, Matt.
I think that's it Matt.