Tropical Storm Danny
8/24/15  5 am EDT/4 am CDT 
Statistics:
Location: 11.3 North Latitude, 40.2 West Longitude or about 1445 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles.
Maximum Winds: 50 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 Millibars or 29.53 Inches.
Forward Movement: West at a forward speed of 14 mph.
 
Good morning. 
 
Tropical Storm Danny formed yesterday and at present the risk for a South Florida landfall appear to be low. High pressure to the north of it, see above should steer it toward the Caribbean however a trough of low pressure across the NE US could weaken that high early next week and allow it to turn to the NW into the Bahamas and from there N and NE away from the US. If the high pressure remains strong it should steer it into the Caribbean where conditions are very unfavorable with widespread sheer in the 30-40 mph range which would significantly weaken it or even cause it to dissipate. If it survived the Caribbean it could re-intensify in the Gulf of Mexico and potentially affect the northern Gulf coast.
 
Bottom line its still way too early to know for sure however both scenarios take it away from South Florida. I'll write another update as things develop but no reason to panic at this time.
 
My best to all,
Matt.
 
Tropical Storm Danny
8/25/15  5 am EDT/4 am CDT 
Statistics:
Location: 15.8 North Latitude, 60.5 West Longitude or about 60 miles to the east-southeast of Guadeloupe.
Maximum Winds: 40 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 Millibars or 29.74 Inches.
Forward Movement: West at a forward speed of 9 mph.
 
 Good morning.
 
High pressure over us has remained strong and as expected Danny and is heading toward the Caribbean. Conditions there remain unfavorable and Danny has weakened significantly and is currently a minimal tropical storm. It will likely be downgraded to a Tropical Depression later today and is forecast to dissipate in the next 2-3 days. Unless things change I do not anticipate needing to write further about  Danny
 
Elsewhere in the tropics a strong low pressure system, Invest 98L, centered near 13 degrees North and 44 degrees West will likely be upgraded to a tropical depression later today and become Tropical Storm Erika by tomorrow. It likely will turn NW into the mid Atlantic trough and if it does so would not likely be a threat to South Florida, see model forecasts below.
 
I'll let you know if things should change but so far so good.
 
My best to all,                                    
Matt.
 
Tropical Update 8/26/15, 5 am
 
Good morning.
 
At 5 am this AM Erika remains a minimal Tropical Storm. There are several factors which will affect its potential course and intensity. Firstly it missed the mid Atlantic trough and is being steered by high pressure to its north. (see 1st diagram). This will steer it towards the Bahamas. Next, 2nd diagram, it is presently in a fairly low shear environment which would favor development however between the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico it will encounter 20-30 mph of shear which will adversely affect it and could even cause it to dissipate as Danny did in the same environment; however Erika is a larger system than Danny and this is less likely to occur. Once it gets north of 20 degrees N it will encounter warm waters and low shear and will have potential for significant development. If the current pressure pattern would persist ,1st diagram, it would it would be steered NW, N and NE away from the US however weather is NOT static and a blocking high pressure is forecast to be in place over the SE US on Sunday (see 3rd diagram). This makes an encounter with the SE US likely early next week. The exact location of potential landfall(s) is uncertain at this time. The current NHC track brings it just east of SE Florida on Monday. My suspicion is that we will see a track similar to that of Hurricane David in '79 or Floyd with it passing to our east and from there tracking along, offshore, the Florida coast then slowing down with possible landfall between Jacksonville Fl and Myrtle Bch,SC.
 
Relative minor fluctuations in the location of the high and a trough in the Gulf of Mexico could significant impact where it goes. We're going to have to keep a close eye on this one as there is the potential for a South Florida landfall. Hopefully it will stay to our east as I suspect but it could get close. 
 
The next 2 d will be important as this is the time where it could potentially be disrupted. By Saturday we'll have a much better idea. 
 
I'll write again on Friday morning, sooner if needed, but we're just going to have to wait to see how things develop. If you need any supplies today and tomorrow would be the days to get them since if it does threaten this weekend will be crazy.
 
Until Friday,
Matt.
 
Tropical Update 5 am  8/28/15
Tropical Storm Erika:
5 am EDT/4 am CDT 
Statistics:
Location: 17.7 North Latitude, 67.7 West Longitude or about 155 miles to the east-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Maximum Winds: 50 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 Millibars or 29.71 Inches.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 17 mph
 
Good morning at 5 AM Erika was located just SW of Puerto Rico. See below. There are several factors which will affect Erika. High pressure to its north, a high shear environment for the next 48 hrs, Hispaniola, possibly Cuba , a frontal trough over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level low over central Cuba. Erika is very poorly organized this am with little weather near its center, NO storm force winds are west of its center and most of its weather is displaced SE of the center. It is encountering significant shear as discussed in previous forecasts. It should cross Hispaniola tonight and shear is expected to increase further. After that it may even track down the spine of Cuba. If that should happen it is likely that it would dissipate or be only a tropical depression. If Erika was stronger it would be steered to our east; however it is not. Since yesterday the NHC models have been shifting to the west. It is likely that that trend will continue. Currently the NHC models center on Miami. Note these are just lines on a graph and have NO influence on the storm itself. Erika has numerous significant obstacles in front of it. The upper level low over Cuba could be its death nail as well as they are arch enemies of tropical systems and if it doesn't move it could take it out in its weakened state.
 
Bottom line. There is probably a 50-60% chance that Erika will dissipate or be down graded to a Depression. Miami will not likely be the center of its track. If it does manage to stay together it is unlikely that it would approach South Florida as more than a 50-60 mph Tropical Storm. Tropical storms are tree storms and rain events not structure events. The main risk would be potentially tornados if it remains intact and passes to our SW.
 
At this point there is no reason to panic. This is NOT an Andrew. It is unlikely that we will get significant wind. IF it holds together we COULD get a lot of rain. But we'll likely get some rain either way due to the frontal trough across north-central Florida.
 
I'll write again tomorrow but I am encouraged by what I see today.  

Matt.
 
Tropical Update 8/29/15
9:30 AM EDT Sat Aug 29, 2015
Location: 21.5°N 75.9°W
Moving: WNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
 
Good morning.
 
At 9:30 this am the NHC issued a special weather statement announcing the official dissipation of Erika. At 5 am they could not locate the center of circulation. When the Hurricane hunter aircraft entered it this am they could not find a closed circulation and declared that it had degenerated into a trough of low pressure. 
 
It however is not completely gone. Out of its dissipation 2 competing low level circulations remain, both w/o associated thunderstorm activity over them currently. One is south of the island of Cuba, which was the old center and a new one located just along the northern coast of Cuba at the coordinates noted above. The southern one should move along the southern coast and eventually enter the SE Gulf of Mexico and due to unfavorable conditions never regenerate. The northern one has potential to regenerate however its proximity to land, shear, and competition for moisture with the southern center will make any development slow to occur.  It is forecast to move along the north coast of Cuba and enter the extreme SE Gulf of Mexico near the SW Florida coast. The NHC will not be issuing further advisories unless regeneration occurs.
 
A stalled frontal system to our north will draw the moisture from both toward the Florida Peninsula and lead to enhanced rainfall with possibly some squalls. This will occur Sun night thru Tuesday. Expect a rainy Monday but hopefully not much else. If a depression should reform maybe a little wind. This has potential to help our current drought and to recharge Lake Okeechobee.
 
 Have a great weekend and IF needed I'll write again,
 
Matt.

Greetings All !
 
2012 was an unusual year for weather for us in South Florida. For my over 23+ year history of daily weather/rainfall recordings and observations we had the wettest year that I have recorded with 84.55 " of rainfaill at my house with 70.37 inches falling in the 6 months of April through September. Many places in the Redlands had over 100" with one total of about 120" recorded. In contrast we also had some of the driest months with no measurable rainfall in January (the first month in over 23 years with none), the driest May I've recorded with 0.78" (contrast that with this year's 14.95") along with 4 months with < 1.00 inch of rain (January, May, November and December). My 23 year running average rainfall at my house is 68.14".  The 2011 total was 63.31".
 
The Tropical activity in our vicinity included TS Debbie with 45 mph winds off the Gulf coast which made landfall in the Panhandle/Big Bend area leaving us with about 4 and 1/2 " of rain 6/21-26. TS Issac passed near the Dry Tortugas 8/24-26 giving us 20-30 mph winds and dumping 6.83" of rain at my house. Lastly was Hurricane Sandy a massive slow moving system which devastated the New Jersey coast with an expansive storm surge; though not a lot of wind. 
 
Once again the National Weather Service is forecasting an above average season for tropical activity. See below:

NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season
Era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes continuesMay 23, 2013

Hurricane Sandy as seen from NOAA's GOES-13 satellite on October 28, 2012.
Download here (Credit:NOAA/NASA)
In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued 5/23/13, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year.

For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
 
Despite the forecast it is still not likely that we will get a storm this year. On average we have a 14% chance of getting a hurricane any given year. Even if there are 11 hurricanes our odds would only increase to about 25%. Keep in mind that major storm occurs about 1 in 50 years and Cat 5s < 1/100 years. This does not mean that we should not prepare because the reality is that statistics are meaningless once a storm is out there. What counts is the particular environmental conditions that exist at the time it is in our vicinity and that is something we we cannot predict at this time. I am planning on pruning the trees in my yard this summer sometime before mid August. 
 
Have a great summer and know I'll be keeping an eye out to what's going on out there.

TD 12   as of 7 PM 8/23/05
Hi all,
 
            Tropical Depression #12 formed this afternoon over the southern Bahamas. It's 5 PMcoordinates were 23.2 N and 75.5 W with 35 mph winds and movement towards the NW @ 10 mph. Unfortunately and fortunately it is pretty close to us already which should prevent major strengthening before it is in our vicinity. It's center is currently ill defined with at least two low centers. The southern one appears to be dominating. The northern one however may help to draw it a little more to the north. It's current track would head it toward the West Palm Beacharea with landfall Thursday night- Friday AM. Expect the local media to go nuts because of the short warning. Try not to get too excited as it currently does not look like it will have enough time to be a major system. The steering forces currently are not too strong so it's still too early to make a strong prediction for site of landfall. Being a weak system as long as it passes to our north we should be OK. Recall again our coordinates here in Miami are  approximately 25.6 N & 80.4 W. If it continues on it's current track Miami and points south should be OK. We should have a better idea by later tomorrow and I'll be writing another update then.         

Take care,                  Matt.
 
Update  5PM     8-24-05
Good evening,
 
         At 5 PM Tropical Storm Katrina was located @ 25.6 N & 77.2 W  and was moving NW @ 9 mph with peak winds of 45 mph. It is currently due east of us here in Miami and is moving further north every hour. This is good for us in South Dade. The NHC is still calling for it to make landfall near Ft. Lauderdale. I suspect it will be north of that with the West Palm Beacharea, as per yesterday's Update, still the highest risk area at present. I suspect that the NHC will be revising their track to the north later tonight or tomorrow. On it's current track the primary concern will be a potential rain event. If it makes landfall @ >26.2 N we shouldn't experience winds over about 40-45 mph. If it's >27.0 we should not experience storm conditions. I am currently anticipating peak winds in South Dade of 20-30 mph with higher gusts in squalls and rainfall of 2-6 inches. (Potentially over 10 inches in Palm Beach Co.)  We should have a better idea tomorrow AM as most of its northward movement should occur over the next 12 hours.
         Until tomorrow,         Matt.
 
Katrina  as of 5 AM  8-25-05
Good morning,
 
       At 5 AM Tropical Storm Katrina was centered  @ 26.2 N & 78.7 W and was moving west @ 8 mph with 50 mph winds. At 5 PM Katrina was progressing nicely towards the NW towards a slight weakness in the high pressure ridge to its north, however just after 5 PM it took a decided wobble to the west and slowed. This gave time for that weakness to close. Subsequently high pressure has built in to its north and has actually pushed a little to the south. This should impede significant further movement to the north for the short term and could even move it a little to the south. It is currently about 90 miles due east of Boca Raton. The NHC is currently calling for landfall at 26.3 N which is between Boca and West Palm Beach. If this happens Palm Beach County should receive the worst of it, however it will still be close enough to cause tropical storm conditions in all of Miami-Dade County. The more westward track and anticipated slower movement could increase the rainfall projections. Shear from the north has slowed development with only minimal weather currently on the west side of the storm, though I anticipate strengthening when it crosses the Gulf Stream. The NHC is currently calling for it to be a Cat 1 storm at landfall. Due to a possible shift toward the south Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties should prepare for possible Cat 1 conditions. The real weather should occur late tonight and tomorrow. I will be writing another update this evening.
         Take care,                              Matt.
 
Katrina as of 5 PM  8-25-05
  Hi all, this is it.
 
        At 5 PM Hurricane Katrina was located @ 26.1 N & 79.9 W with 75 mph winds and was moving SW at 6 mph. From 5 AM until 3 PM Katrina was heading due west along 26.2 degrees N. Over the past 2 hours Katrina has taken a decided move/wobble towards the SW. I discussed this possibility on this AMs forecast. This has brought Katrina closer to us in South Dade. It is currently just off shore of southern Broward County. Ft. Lauderdale area will probably receive the worst of it. The good news is that the winds on shore are not that bad so far. Peak winds in Miami the past hour have been 23 mph with gusts to 38 mph. In Ft. Lauderdale 30 & 44 mph respectively. We will probably experience higher gusts in squalls when the eastern side of the storm comes on shore later tonight. Maybe more if the Southwest track persists. Expect a windy rainy night. Winds will be slowly decreasing tomorrow. With the more southern track expect lots of rain.
    
          Have a good night and be safe,     Matt. 
 
What happened. Katrina 8-26-05
Below is a synopsis which I wrote about Hurricane Katrina which you may find interesting. Katrina is currently headed in the direction of New Orleans as a Cat 5 and has the possibility of devastating the area and turning the city into an 18 foot deep lake. Anyone in that area should evacuate at once.

What Happened.?
Friday   8-26-05    7 PM
 
WOW!
What a night and what a surprise.
 
The following is a summary of what happened with Hurricane Katrina.
 
At 5 AM yesterday 8-25 while Katrina was @ 26.2 and due east of Boca Raton I was very much concerned by the high pressure ridge to the north of Katrina which was pushing southward and I mentioned the possibility of a more southern track in my Update. I feared a move more to the south and I had done some calculations and told myself that if it was going to occur it would occur by 5 PM. I came home early purposefully to get an update out early in the event that it did occur. When I reviewed the data @ noon and @ 3 PM Katrina was still @ 26.2N and still heading due west and @ 3PM was only 25 miles from shore and the NHC forecast track hadn’t changed. I was going to put an early update out stating that it looked like the NHC was going to be right, (and I really wanted them to be, maybe too much), but I told myself I have to give it until 5 PM. Besides historically Southwest moving storms are very unusual. When I reviewed the data again @ 5 PM Katrina had taken a sharp move to the southwest even though the NHC stated that it was @ 26.1 and was still moving west and hadn’t changed their track, it appeared to be @ more like 25.9 N. My 5 pm update talked about the move but it was already too late to do anything about it. Around 5:45 PM it made landfall @ North Miami Beach with the northern eye wall hitting Ft. Lauderdale. Then things got interesting. Energized by a more prolonged trip across the Gulf Stream with its southwest move it underwent rapid intensification with an eye wall replacement cycle and shrinkage of the eye from about a 20-mile wide eye to 10 miles with an increase in strength after landfall. It then with its heat source cut off underwent a rapid eye expansion back to 20+ miles pushing the southern eye wall rapidly across all of South Dade. Normally the strongest winds in a hurricane are in the northern and northeast eye wall. With Katrina, after landfall due to northern shear, the energy of the storm became concentrated in the expanding S and SE eye wall band, which hit us! To quote Jim Cantori of The Weather Channel, “That was the strongest Cat 1 I’ve ever been in!”

       Just after 6:30 our power went out and I couldn’t get out a new advisory.

       Katrina subsequently proceeded straight southwest across the southern peninsula exiting the state @ Cape Sable. Throughout it’s over 12-hour trip across South Florida and the Everglades it never lost hurricane strength. Gusts of 80-90 mph were wide spread across most of Miami-Dade County with highest wind recorded of 95 mph in Ft. Lauderdale. Rainfall amounts were 2-4 “ in N. Dade and Broward, 6-8” in Central Dade and 10-20” from Cutler Ridge to Florida City. Flooding is still extensive in Southern Miami- Dade.
 
       I will always remember Katrina for the lessons that I’ve learned from her. 1) Don’t ignore my instincts. 2) Never underestimate the power of the Gulf Stream. 3) Being over land in southern Florida and the Everglades is not a significant weakener of storms. 4) Slow moving storms are more difficult to predict. 5) Expect the unexpected and be prepared.
 
         Fortunately Katrina was only a Cat1 storm. If it had been a Cat 3 or 4 it could have been terrible. When Hurricane Charlie was approaching the Southwest Florida coast last year, 48 hours prior to landfall I saw a similar pressure pattern developing and while the NHC was calling for landfall in Tampa I had forecast landfall just north of Ft. Myers Beach. I’ve realized that it’s harder to be a contrarian when you are the target.
 
        On the good side, at least we didn’t have to worry about it!
 
                         Best wishes,                     Matt.

Perspective
 
With the start of the 2005 Hurricane Season it is important to keep things in perspective. On average South Florida experiences a hurricane about every 7 years, however all hurricanes are not created equal. On average we get a major hurricane (Category 3 or >) about every 50 years. Every year our chances of having a storm are about 14%, i.e. we have an 86% chance this year of NOT seeing hurricane conditions. In 1998 & 1999 we had 3 Cat 1 hurricanes, Mitch, Irene and Harvey though hardly anyone remembers them, that’s because they all approached from the west and Cat. 1 storms are not that bad. The one which we all remember was Andrew which was a Cat.5. The last Cat 5 to hit South Florida was the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which devastated the Middle Keys, these occur < 1/100 years. There have only been 3 Cat. 5s this century to hit the entire US. The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Camille 1969 and Andrew 1992.
     
In retrospect 2004 was a very unusual year for weather. What spared us in Miami and what plagued the rest of the state was an extremely unusual northern displacement of the Bermuda High which steered storms, instead of through the Florida Straits, into the center of the state. It also lead us to have a well below average year for rainfall, 53.94” at my house, compared to my last 15 year average of 69.34”.
 
I usually will only track and forecast storms which present potential threats to South Florida. Last year I tracked 4 storms.

Hurricane Charlie which hit Captiva/Sanibel and Punta Gorda on 8/13 as a Cat.4 with 145mph winds by reconnisance plane, highest wind recorded on the ground was 127mph (Cat.3), in Punta Gorda. In Miami we received only 1 minor squall. Charlie was a very compact storm.

Hurricane Frances, 9/3-5, which made landfall just north of West Palm Beach as a Cat.2 with 100 mph winds. A huge storm with an over 400 mile wide storm force or greater wind shield which just prior to landfall produced tropical storm force winds simultaneously from Key West to Jacksonville (the entire East Coast)! It had a 70 mile wide eye spanning Boca to Vero Beach! Miami experienced 40-50 mph winds, Boca Cat.1 conditions.

Hurricane Ivan which made landfall on 9/16 near the Alabama - Florida state line as a Cat 3 storm, 130mph winds, bringing it’s strongest winds and surge from the state line to Pensicola. Nothing here.

Hurricane Jeanne which made landfall as a Cat.2 storm,110mph winds, 9/25-26 , just north of Ft. Pierce, bringing peak winds of 36mph to Miami.
 
Statistically we’re not due, but remember Chance Has No Memory.
 
Have a great year and remember, despite the local media, very few storms actually hit us. In addition they usually need to pass within 25 miles of you (usually less) to be affected by the eye wall, the true heart of the hurricane.
 
Best wishes,                                       Matt.

Monday, September 6, 2004
I just finished reviewing the data on Ivan. The National Weather Service is currently calling for it to hit Biscayne Bay. That's the good news, because this far in advance they're never right. There is an upper level low over the eastern Caribbean. Since yesterday it seems to have weakened. This is the main feature which should turn it more to the north. It should start to influence it tomorrow through Wed. By Thursday AM we should have a pretty good idea for its future track. If my hunch is correct I suspect we'll see a course south of the projected one. After that there's not much else out there to change it's course, UNLESS it slows down which could allow a frontal trough to move into the picture. The key will be just how much that low diverts it. In addition the subtropical high pressure ridge appears to have shifted a little to the south. This may or may not be good news. Anyway I'll keep you abreast of future developments, keep your fingers crossed.
 
Tuesday, September 7
Hi Guys, The upper level low in the eastern Caribbean has weakened further and is moving west. It therefore should have only a minimal impact on Ivan. Based on this my current track heads Ivan toward the Yucatan Channel, from there its course will depend on the presence or absence of a frontal system, either way it doesn't look like we'll get a direct hit and probably a total miss. My track is still south of the current NWS's. Only time will tell.
Until the next update.
 
Wednesday, September 8
Ivan has not significantly veered from yesterdays projected track, yet. The upper level low, now in the central Caribbean, is persisting and is now moving slower than Ivan. It should interact with Ivan tomorrow potentially moving "him" a little to the north. We'll know how much by Friday. The NHC is currently forecasting Ivan to pass just north of Jamaica and then to cross western Cuba near Havana and move into the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal system is supposed to be approaching by then which could shift it more to the north. The faster Ivan moves probably the better for us. If it slows it could potentially shift the course more to the north.
My track, still pretty much the same, toward the Yucatan Channel, may shift slightly to the east to near western Cuba. This should still be far enough to our west to keep us out of anything serious. We should have a better idea by Friday. A path south side of Jamaica would be encouraging.
Until tomorrow. Matt
 
Thursday, September 9
The NHC gave us a scare this AM by targeting Ivan to Flamingo, Florida Bay and South Florida. They have revised their track since then with Ivan heading toward Ft. Meyers @ 2 PM and now, 5 PM, towards the Panhandle. One of there models turns it north early into the Bahamas. The bottom line is that they don't know. There are numerous variables which could affect it and they are constantly changing and Ivan can affect the variables themselves. Their current track takes it across western Cuba near Havana very similar to yesterday's projection.
The reality is that Ivan has not changed course yet and is still headed towards the Yucatan Channel. A stalled frontal trough just to our north should start to affect it as soon as it gets north of Cuba. The further west it goes, probably the better for us. Our coordinates, in Miami, are 25.6 N and 80.5 W. It would be nice if it was less than or equal to 21.2 N when it crosses the 80th parallel.
Cross your toes!
Until tomorrow, Matt.
P.S. Realize the NHC's forecast track is an average of several computer models. Usually none of which are actually projecting the course they outline. Some are to the right, some to the left. They pick the middle. When storms are over 2 days out the amount of error in there forecast is huge so try not to get psyched out by local news coverage. In their defense some storms are easier to predict than others. This one will be more difficult due to very weak steering currents once it gets near Cuba. It should slow down as it approaches it.
 
Friday, September 10
Hi Everyone! Ivan continues on a WNW track and should hit the southern coast of Jamaica tonight. It appears to be turning slightly more to the NW. The NHC is currently projecting it to cross west-central Cuba near Havana and from there head toward the Panhandle. My track is a little west of theirs with Ivan crossing western Cuba near the Isle of Youth (Isle of Pines). The 5 PM coordinates are 17.0 N and 76.2 W. When it reaches our latitude, 25.6 N, we would like to see Ivan greater than or equal to 82.0 W to avoid hurricane conditions, if it reaches > 83.2 W we may even avoid tropical storm conditions. If it continues it's current course that may just happen. Unfortunately it's course could change without notice, though the further west it goes probably the better for us. It should pass the 80th parallel tomorrow (see yesterday's report) and hopefully the 82nd on Sunday. As it progresses further north I'll be able to better predict just what type of conditions we can expect. I currently do NOT anticipate Hurricane conditions for us.
Until tomorrow, Matt
 
Saturday, September 11
Hi ! The NHC models are finally coming into agreement with my Reality Based Model,(i.e. based on what it is actually doing rather than what it might do). The reality is that Ivan has not significantly changed course for 6 days. The only thing that has changed have been the weather service's projections with the local media jumping on any model which projected a move in our direction.
An upper level low in the central Atlantic, moving east, should help to keep the subtropical ridge strong enough to continue to steer Ivan toward the Yucatan Channel, the western tip of Cuba and the Isle of Youth. If this holds true we should be in good shape for avoiding any significant weather. Ivan should be crossing the 80th parallel soon and will likely be under 19.0 degrees N which is in good support of good weather for us.
Until tomorrow, Matt.
P.S. If people who have started to receive updates later would like
I can re-send earlier updates which started on 9/6.
 
Sunday, September 12, 2004 5:38 PM
Ivan as of 9/12/04 5 PM
Hi !
As of 5 PM Ivan was located @ 19.3 N and 82.5 W and continues to head WNW towards the Yucatan Channel and the western tip of Cuba. After entering the Gulf of Mexico it should turn north and eventually northeast toward a stalled frontal trough. It's exact location of landfall will depend upon the location of the trough when it gets there.
Southeast Florida is currently looking pretty good and though I would recommend waiting until Ivan is north of us, for what its worth for your peace of mind, I'll let you know that Claudia took our shutters down this AM.
Best wishes, Matt.
 
For Jeanne,
 9/14/04 Hi everyone, I didn't want to report today and had hoped to be finished with Ivan but due to multiple requests I am writing an update.
At 5 PM Ivan was located at 24.2 N and 86.6 W and as expected is moving generally to the north. The frontal trough to it's north appears to have weakened which should allow Ivan to continue almost straight until landfall, which currently appears to be between Mobile Bay and Ft. Walton Beach, centered around the Alabama-Florida border / Pensacola area.
At 5 PM Jeanne was located at 16.8 N and 63.9 W. Though I feel it's too early to give a comfortable forecast for Jeanne since it hasn't been around long enough to establish any significant trends, it currently looks as if it should continue towards the W and WNW the next 1-2 days. It should then start to turn NW as it approaches the Bahamas as it moves around the periphery of an elongated high pressure ridge located between it and the Bahamas. If this ridge persists it should steer "her" away from us. Again I ideally like more time to observe storms for REAL trends before making stronger predictions.
Fortunately Ivan behaved as expected and hopefully so will Jeanne.
Until the next update, Matt.
 
9/16/04
Hi !
Ivan made landfall early this AM near the Alabama / Florida border bringing it's strongest winds and surge from Gulf Shores Alabama (near the state line) to Pensacola.
At 11 AM Jeanne was located at 18.8 N and 68.7 N, over the NE corner of the Dominican Republic. Jeanne should cross the northern half of the D.R. today in a general WNW direction. After it exits the coast, it should start to turn more toward the NW. The good news is that Jeanne is currently over land and encountering some shear which will make it slow to strengthen. There are several features which could influence Jeanne's future course. The primary factor is the elongated high pressure ridge to it's north. If Jeanne continues it's present speed of around 10 MPH or speeds up, it should persist long enough to steer Jeanne to the northwest and eventually north away from us, (if Ivan moves SLOWLY to the northeast this would help this to occur). This AM the southern portion of this ridge looked attenuated with the potential to collapse or move north. With time this will probably occur. If Jeanne slows she may be stranded until an new ridge builds to its north pushing it in a more westward direction. This does NOT mean it will hit us. A track to our south toward the Florida straits or to parts of Florida to our north are possible, depending on the timing.
Isn't chaos theory great ! ? I'll keep you posted. Matt
 
9/17/04
Hi everyone!
At 5 PM Tropical DEPRESSION Jeanne was located at 20.2 N & 71.8 W, over the north central coast of the Dominican Republic. It has been disrupted significantly by being over land and by upper level shearing winds. The remnants of Ivan appear to be having a beneficial affect on maintaining the southern end of the elongated subtropical ridge. Once Jeanne emerges from the coast of the D.R. it should continue to move along the periphery of this ridge. This should take the storm NW and eventually N. If this occurs South Florida should be OK. (I'll breath easier however when it's to our north, but things look significantly better now.)
Karl in the far eastern Atlantic should be steered N, away from land, as it encounters a trough in the central Atlantic in a few days.
So far , so good. Matt
 
9/22/04
Hi everyone!
At 5 PM Jeanne was located @ 26.1 N & 69.0 W and was moving WSW @ 5 mph. With regard to Jeanne there's good news and bad news. The bad news is that Jeanne moved too slowly and yesterday morning the subtropical ridge retreated to the east stranding Jeanne approximately 150 miles north and 750 miles east of us, (see Th. 9/16/04 update). Since then it has been meandering waiting for a new ridge to build in to direct it. Fortunately, thanks to Ivan, this occurred after it was to our north. Unfortunately it has subsequently drifted southward. The good news however is that it looks like it should still miss us. High pressure over us and upper level westerly winds should deflect it to the north. It may impact northern parts of the state or the Carolinas.
Karl is heading N and is no threat to the US. Lisa should encounter a trough in the central Atlantic in a couple of days and start turning to the NW and eventually N too.
The one we'll have to watch, which hasn't even formed yet, is Matthew !!
Until the next time, Matt.
 
9/23/04   Jeanne as of 11 AM 9/23/04
Hi all !
I have already begun to receive distress calls and emails regarding Jeanne. Please do NOT panic. Jeanne's current motion is NOT unexpected. I anticipated this to happen in the 9/16/04 update. Yesterday's forecast so far still holds true. Currently I would not anticipate a landfall south of Ft. Pierce. Unlike Frances, Jeanne is a compact storm with hurricane force winds extending only 30 miles SW (our side of the storm)from the center and storm force wind 100 miles to the SW. If it's latitude is > or equal to 27.0 N when it reaches 80.0 W longitude we should not experience any major weather. The NHC is currently calling for it to be @ 27.3 N when it reaches 80.2 W. I am currently in agreement with that. At 11 AM today it was located @ 25.6 N & 69.7 W, again our coordinates are approximately 25.6 N & 80.5 W (each degree is approximately 70 miles).
Claudia requests that you please turn off local TV stations.
Until next time, Matt.
 
9/24/04 5 AM
At 5 AM Jeanne was located @ 26.1 N & 71.6 W and was moving W @ 8 mph. Jeanne is now following the perimeter of a large high pressure system over the Atlantic. Currently this ridge turns NW just to our east. Jeanne should do the same. The question will be where this edge will be on Sunday morning. The NHC is currently forecasting it to be approximately where it is now. If that is the case Miami should experience similar conditions as we had with Frances, occasional squalls with gusts to 40-60 mph. Boca could receive more. A direct hit is not predicted for them but if the turn occurs later they could receive significant weather and they should prepare. The key will be just when the turn occurs. If necessary I'll make updates twice a day for the next couple of days as Jeanne approaches and things get clearer. With short term forecasting the NHC is usually very good and you can view their data @ www.nhc.noaa.gov or watch the weather channel. Local news often project their own tracks which invariable point at us.
Until this evening, Matt.
 
9/24/04 5PM
At 5 PM Jeanne was located @ 26.4 N & 73.5 W and was moving west @ 12 mph. My current track has not changed from yesterday's.
The timing of when Jeanne starts to turn to the NW will be the main factor in determining how much, if any, fringe affects we may receive. I anticipate that this move should start by this time tomorrow. I will be writing an update tomorrow morning and around 5 PM.
Matt
 
9/25 5 AM
At 5 AM Jeanne was located @ 26.5 N & 76.2 W and was moving west @ 14 mph. In looking at the water vapor loops this morning Jeanne appears to be starting to encounter some upper level shear from the west and southwest. This should help to attenuate the SW side of the storm and I anticipate that it will start to nudge a little more to the north soon. My forecast track, which now looks similar to the NHC's, has not changed since 9/23. Yesterday's projections still hold. We'll just have to wait and see when the turn starts to know how much wind we'll get. I do not anticipate hurricane conditions for Miami and south. Look for what ever weather we do get to occur tonight and early tomorrow morning.
Until this afternoon, Matt.
 
9/25 2 PM
At 1 PM Jeanne was located @ 26.8 N and 77.9 W. It's 2:15 PM now and over the past 3 hours Jeanne has taken a decided wobble to the WNW and is probably close to 27.0 degrees north latitude now. This is good news for us in Miami and could translate into a less severe storm for our friends and family in Boca. Though it may just be a simple wobble, this close to land it may have a major impact as to where ultimate landfall takes place. We will still probably experience some squally weather with gusts to 40-60 mph primarily out of the north and northwest. Cross your fingers, I'll send another report around 5 PM.
Matt.
 
9/25 5 PM
At 5 PM Jeanne was located @ 27.1 N & 78.8 W and was moving to the W-WNW @ 14 mph. A gradual turn more to the WNW is anticipated over night. After landfall it should turn toward the NW and eventually N. My track for Jeanne is unchanged from 9/23 with landfall expected north of Ft. Pierce (? Vero vicinity). Though the ridge didn't move much the upper level shear from the SW has nudged Jeanne slightly to the north. It appears that Boca may just miss the southern eyewall and I anticipate Category 1 conditions for them similar to what they experienced with Frances.
Good luck to everyone tonight, take care, Matt.
 
9/26 5/AM
Jeanne made landfall around 1 AM at 27.3 north latitude, just north of Ft. Pierce with the greatest surge and winds affecting the Vero Beach to Sebastian area. My heart felt concerns go out to our friends with family in Sebastian. At 5 AM Jeanne was located @ 27.4 n & 81.1 W. It should move up through the state today and may even emerge briefly into the Gulf of Mexico in the Cedar Key - Steinhatchee area. This will hopefully be my last update on Jeanne. Elsewhere in the tropics, things are quiet for now.
Best wishes, Matt.
I think that's it Matt.