TD 12 as of 7 PM 8/23/05
Hi all,
Tropical Depression #12 formed this afternoon over the southern Bahamas. It's 5 PMcoordinates were 23.2 N and 75.5 W with 35 mph winds and movement towards the NW @ 10 mph. Unfortunately and fortunately it is pretty close to us already which should prevent major strengthening before it is in our vicinity. It's center is currently ill defined with at least two low centers. The southern one appears to be dominating. The northern one however may help to draw it a little more to the north. It's current track would head it toward the West Palm Beacharea with landfall Thursday night- Friday AM. Expect the local media to go nuts because of the short warning. Try not to get too excited as it currently does not look like it will have enough time to be a major system. The steering forces currently are not too strong so it's still too early to make a strong prediction for site of landfall. Being a weak system as long as it passes to our north we should be OK. Recall again our coordinates here in Miami are approximately 25.6 N & 80.4 W. If it continues on it's current track Miami and points south should be OK. We should have a better idea by later tomorrow and I'll be writing another update then.
Take care, Matt.
Update 5PM 8-24-05
Good evening,
At 5 PM Tropical Storm Katrina was located @ 25.6 N & 77.2 W and was moving NW @ 9 mph with peak winds of 45 mph. It is currently due east of us here in Miami and is moving further north every hour. This is good for us in South Dade. The NHC is still calling for it to make landfall near Ft. Lauderdale. I suspect it will be north of that with the West Palm Beacharea, as per yesterday's Update, still the highest risk area at present. I suspect that the NHC will be revising their track to the north later tonight or tomorrow. On it's current track the primary concern will be a potential rain event. If it makes landfall @ >26.2 N we shouldn't experience winds over about 40-45 mph. If it's >27.0 we should not experience storm conditions. I am currently anticipating peak winds in South Dade of 20-30 mph with higher gusts in squalls and rainfall of 2-6 inches. (Potentially over 10 inches in Palm Beach Co.) We should have a better idea tomorrow AM as most of its northward movement should occur over the next 12 hours.
Until tomorrow, Matt.
Katrina as of 5 AM 8-25-05
Good morning,
At 5 AM Tropical Storm Katrina was centered @ 26.2 N & 78.7 W and was moving west @ 8 mph with 50 mph winds. At 5 PM Katrina was progressing nicely towards the NW towards a slight weakness in the high pressure ridge to its north, however just after 5 PM it took a decided wobble to the west and slowed. This gave time for that weakness to close. Subsequently high pressure has built in to its north and has actually pushed a little to the south. This should impede significant further movement to the north for the short term and could even move it a little to the south. It is currently about 90 miles due east of Boca Raton. The NHC is currently calling for landfall at 26.3 N which is between Boca and West Palm Beach. If this happens Palm Beach County should receive the worst of it, however it will still be close enough to cause tropical storm conditions in all of Miami-Dade County. The more westward track and anticipated slower movement could increase the rainfall projections. Shear from the north has slowed development with only minimal weather currently on the west side of the storm, though I anticipate strengthening when it crosses the Gulf Stream. The NHC is currently calling for it to be a Cat 1 storm at landfall. Due to a possible shift toward the south Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties should prepare for possible Cat 1 conditions. The real weather should occur late tonight and tomorrow. I will be writing another update this evening.
Take care, Matt.
Katrina as of 5 PM 8-25-05
Hi all, this is it.
At 5 PM Hurricane Katrina was located @ 26.1 N & 79.9 W with 75 mph winds and was moving SW at 6 mph. From 5 AM until 3 PM Katrina was heading due west along 26.2 degrees N. Over the past 2 hours Katrina has taken a decided move/wobble towards the SW. I discussed this possibility on this AMs forecast. This has brought Katrina closer to us in South Dade. It is currently just off shore of southern Broward County. Ft. Lauderdale area will probably receive the worst of it. The good news is that the winds on shore are not that bad so far. Peak winds in Miami the past hour have been 23 mph with gusts to 38 mph. In Ft. Lauderdale 30 & 44 mph respectively. We will probably experience higher gusts in squalls when the eastern side of the storm comes on shore later tonight. Maybe more if the Southwest track persists. Expect a windy rainy night. Winds will be slowly decreasing tomorrow. With the more southern track expect lots of rain.
Have a good night and be safe, Matt.
What happened. Katrina 8-26-05
Below is a synopsis which I wrote about Hurricane Katrina which you may find interesting. Katrina is currently headed in the direction of New Orleans as a Cat 5 and has the possibility of devastating the area and turning the city into an 18 foot deep lake. Anyone in that area should evacuate at once.
What Happened.?
Friday 8-26-05 7 PM
WOW!
What a night and what a surprise.
The following is a summary of what happened with Hurricane Katrina.
At 5 AM yesterday 8-25 while Katrina was @ 26.2 and due east of Boca Raton I was very much concerned by the high pressure ridge to the north of Katrina which was pushing southward and I mentioned the possibility of a more southern track in my Update. I feared a move more to the south and I had done some calculations and told myself that if it was going to occur it would occur by 5 PM. I came home early purposefully to get an update out early in the event that it did occur. When I reviewed the data @ noon and @ 3 PM Katrina was still @ 26.2N and still heading due west and @ 3PM was only 25 miles from shore and the NHC forecast track hadn’t changed. I was going to put an early update out stating that it looked like the NHC was going to be right, (and I really wanted them to be, maybe too much), but I told myself I have to give it until 5 PM. Besides historically Southwest moving storms are very unusual. When I reviewed the data again @ 5 PM Katrina had taken a sharp move to the southwest even though the NHC stated that it was @ 26.1 and was still moving west and hadn’t changed their track, it appeared to be @ more like 25.9 N. My 5 pm update talked about the move but it was already too late to do anything about it. Around 5:45 PM it made landfall @ North Miami Beach with the northern eye wall hitting Ft. Lauderdale. Then things got interesting. Energized by a more prolonged trip across the Gulf Stream with its southwest move it underwent rapid intensification with an eye wall replacement cycle and shrinkage of the eye from about a 20-mile wide eye to 10 miles with an increase in strength after landfall. It then with its heat source cut off underwent a rapid eye expansion back to 20+ miles pushing the southern eye wall rapidly across all of South Dade. Normally the strongest winds in a hurricane are in the northern and northeast eye wall. With Katrina, after landfall due to northern shear, the energy of the storm became concentrated in the expanding S and SE eye wall band, which hit us! To quote Jim Cantori of The Weather Channel, “That was the strongest Cat 1 I’ve ever been in!”
Just after 6:30 our power went out and I couldn’t get out a new advisory.
Katrina subsequently proceeded straight southwest across the southern peninsula exiting the state @ Cape Sable. Throughout it’s over 12-hour trip across South Florida and the Everglades it never lost hurricane strength. Gusts of 80-90 mph were wide spread across most of Miami-Dade County with highest wind recorded of 95 mph in Ft. Lauderdale. Rainfall amounts were 2-4 “ in N. Dade and Broward, 6-8” in Central Dade and 10-20” from Cutler Ridge to Florida City. Flooding is still extensive in Southern Miami- Dade.
I will always remember Katrina for the lessons that I’ve learned from her. 1) Don’t ignore my instincts. 2) Never underestimate the power of the Gulf Stream. 3) Being over land in southern Florida and the Everglades is not a significant weakener of storms. 4) Slow moving storms are more difficult to predict. 5) Expect the unexpected and be prepared.
Fortunately Katrina was only a Cat1 storm. If it had been a Cat 3 or 4 it could have been terrible. When Hurricane Charlie was approaching the Southwest Florida coast last year, 48 hours prior to landfall I saw a similar pressure pattern developing and while the NHC was calling for landfall in Tampa I had forecast landfall just north of Ft. Myers Beach. I’ve realized that it’s harder to be a contrarian when you are the target.
On the good side, at least we didn’t have to worry about it!
Best wishes, Matt.
Hi all,
Tropical Depression #12 formed this afternoon over the southern Bahamas. It's 5 PMcoordinates were 23.2 N and 75.5 W with 35 mph winds and movement towards the NW @ 10 mph. Unfortunately and fortunately it is pretty close to us already which should prevent major strengthening before it is in our vicinity. It's center is currently ill defined with at least two low centers. The southern one appears to be dominating. The northern one however may help to draw it a little more to the north. It's current track would head it toward the West Palm Beacharea with landfall Thursday night- Friday AM. Expect the local media to go nuts because of the short warning. Try not to get too excited as it currently does not look like it will have enough time to be a major system. The steering forces currently are not too strong so it's still too early to make a strong prediction for site of landfall. Being a weak system as long as it passes to our north we should be OK. Recall again our coordinates here in Miami are approximately 25.6 N & 80.4 W. If it continues on it's current track Miami and points south should be OK. We should have a better idea by later tomorrow and I'll be writing another update then.
Take care, Matt.
Update 5PM 8-24-05
Good evening,
At 5 PM Tropical Storm Katrina was located @ 25.6 N & 77.2 W and was moving NW @ 9 mph with peak winds of 45 mph. It is currently due east of us here in Miami and is moving further north every hour. This is good for us in South Dade. The NHC is still calling for it to make landfall near Ft. Lauderdale. I suspect it will be north of that with the West Palm Beacharea, as per yesterday's Update, still the highest risk area at present. I suspect that the NHC will be revising their track to the north later tonight or tomorrow. On it's current track the primary concern will be a potential rain event. If it makes landfall @ >26.2 N we shouldn't experience winds over about 40-45 mph. If it's >27.0 we should not experience storm conditions. I am currently anticipating peak winds in South Dade of 20-30 mph with higher gusts in squalls and rainfall of 2-6 inches. (Potentially over 10 inches in Palm Beach Co.) We should have a better idea tomorrow AM as most of its northward movement should occur over the next 12 hours.
Until tomorrow, Matt.
Katrina as of 5 AM 8-25-05
Good morning,
At 5 AM Tropical Storm Katrina was centered @ 26.2 N & 78.7 W and was moving west @ 8 mph with 50 mph winds. At 5 PM Katrina was progressing nicely towards the NW towards a slight weakness in the high pressure ridge to its north, however just after 5 PM it took a decided wobble to the west and slowed. This gave time for that weakness to close. Subsequently high pressure has built in to its north and has actually pushed a little to the south. This should impede significant further movement to the north for the short term and could even move it a little to the south. It is currently about 90 miles due east of Boca Raton. The NHC is currently calling for landfall at 26.3 N which is between Boca and West Palm Beach. If this happens Palm Beach County should receive the worst of it, however it will still be close enough to cause tropical storm conditions in all of Miami-Dade County. The more westward track and anticipated slower movement could increase the rainfall projections. Shear from the north has slowed development with only minimal weather currently on the west side of the storm, though I anticipate strengthening when it crosses the Gulf Stream. The NHC is currently calling for it to be a Cat 1 storm at landfall. Due to a possible shift toward the south Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties should prepare for possible Cat 1 conditions. The real weather should occur late tonight and tomorrow. I will be writing another update this evening.
Take care, Matt.
Katrina as of 5 PM 8-25-05
Hi all, this is it.
At 5 PM Hurricane Katrina was located @ 26.1 N & 79.9 W with 75 mph winds and was moving SW at 6 mph. From 5 AM until 3 PM Katrina was heading due west along 26.2 degrees N. Over the past 2 hours Katrina has taken a decided move/wobble towards the SW. I discussed this possibility on this AMs forecast. This has brought Katrina closer to us in South Dade. It is currently just off shore of southern Broward County. Ft. Lauderdale area will probably receive the worst of it. The good news is that the winds on shore are not that bad so far. Peak winds in Miami the past hour have been 23 mph with gusts to 38 mph. In Ft. Lauderdale 30 & 44 mph respectively. We will probably experience higher gusts in squalls when the eastern side of the storm comes on shore later tonight. Maybe more if the Southwest track persists. Expect a windy rainy night. Winds will be slowly decreasing tomorrow. With the more southern track expect lots of rain.
Have a good night and be safe, Matt.
What happened. Katrina 8-26-05
Below is a synopsis which I wrote about Hurricane Katrina which you may find interesting. Katrina is currently headed in the direction of New Orleans as a Cat 5 and has the possibility of devastating the area and turning the city into an 18 foot deep lake. Anyone in that area should evacuate at once.
What Happened.?
Friday 8-26-05 7 PM
WOW!
What a night and what a surprise.
The following is a summary of what happened with Hurricane Katrina.
At 5 AM yesterday 8-25 while Katrina was @ 26.2 and due east of Boca Raton I was very much concerned by the high pressure ridge to the north of Katrina which was pushing southward and I mentioned the possibility of a more southern track in my Update. I feared a move more to the south and I had done some calculations and told myself that if it was going to occur it would occur by 5 PM. I came home early purposefully to get an update out early in the event that it did occur. When I reviewed the data @ noon and @ 3 PM Katrina was still @ 26.2N and still heading due west and @ 3PM was only 25 miles from shore and the NHC forecast track hadn’t changed. I was going to put an early update out stating that it looked like the NHC was going to be right, (and I really wanted them to be, maybe too much), but I told myself I have to give it until 5 PM. Besides historically Southwest moving storms are very unusual. When I reviewed the data again @ 5 PM Katrina had taken a sharp move to the southwest even though the NHC stated that it was @ 26.1 and was still moving west and hadn’t changed their track, it appeared to be @ more like 25.9 N. My 5 pm update talked about the move but it was already too late to do anything about it. Around 5:45 PM it made landfall @ North Miami Beach with the northern eye wall hitting Ft. Lauderdale. Then things got interesting. Energized by a more prolonged trip across the Gulf Stream with its southwest move it underwent rapid intensification with an eye wall replacement cycle and shrinkage of the eye from about a 20-mile wide eye to 10 miles with an increase in strength after landfall. It then with its heat source cut off underwent a rapid eye expansion back to 20+ miles pushing the southern eye wall rapidly across all of South Dade. Normally the strongest winds in a hurricane are in the northern and northeast eye wall. With Katrina, after landfall due to northern shear, the energy of the storm became concentrated in the expanding S and SE eye wall band, which hit us! To quote Jim Cantori of The Weather Channel, “That was the strongest Cat 1 I’ve ever been in!”
Just after 6:30 our power went out and I couldn’t get out a new advisory.
Katrina subsequently proceeded straight southwest across the southern peninsula exiting the state @ Cape Sable. Throughout it’s over 12-hour trip across South Florida and the Everglades it never lost hurricane strength. Gusts of 80-90 mph were wide spread across most of Miami-Dade County with highest wind recorded of 95 mph in Ft. Lauderdale. Rainfall amounts were 2-4 “ in N. Dade and Broward, 6-8” in Central Dade and 10-20” from Cutler Ridge to Florida City. Flooding is still extensive in Southern Miami- Dade.
I will always remember Katrina for the lessons that I’ve learned from her. 1) Don’t ignore my instincts. 2) Never underestimate the power of the Gulf Stream. 3) Being over land in southern Florida and the Everglades is not a significant weakener of storms. 4) Slow moving storms are more difficult to predict. 5) Expect the unexpected and be prepared.
Fortunately Katrina was only a Cat1 storm. If it had been a Cat 3 or 4 it could have been terrible. When Hurricane Charlie was approaching the Southwest Florida coast last year, 48 hours prior to landfall I saw a similar pressure pattern developing and while the NHC was calling for landfall in Tampa I had forecast landfall just north of Ft. Myers Beach. I’ve realized that it’s harder to be a contrarian when you are the target.
On the good side, at least we didn’t have to worry about it!
Best wishes, Matt.