Good morning.

Melissa has begun its NNE move. If you look at the water vapor loop below you can see a cold front sweeping across South Florida. This will prevent any further westward movement. Melissa will be picking up forward speed and will cross Western Jamaica today. This unfortunately will be a devastating event.

My thought and prayers are with everyone on the island and their friends and families elsewhere.

Until next time,           

                                        Matt.
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Good evening.

There have been a few interesting developments with Melissa since yesterday evening. The most significant is that it is currently located south and west of where the NHC had anticipated it to be at this time yesterday. The NHC's track still takes it right over Jamaica however there is a significant chance that if this more westerly motion persists that it may pass just to the west of the island. That would be very significant. H Melissa is currently a very intense yet compact storm with an eye of 10 nm wide. Hurricane force winds extend only 20-25 miles from the center and the eye wall extends up to 10 miles from the center, (Where the Cat 4 and 5 winds extend). If it should pass 20 miles off shore Jamaica could be spared from the worst of its winds. Its slow speed however will lead to extensive flooding, landslides and other serious damaging effects.

My current track takes it just to the west of Jamaica about 10 miles offshore. The NHC is currently not forecasting any further western movement, if it moves even a little more to the west it could make a big difference. Every mile to the west could be very significant with regards to wind damage. I would love to see it pass >20 west of the island. It should start to turn to the NNE tomorrow morning.

I have my fingers crossed and an hoping that this short term trend continues.

Until next time,

                                         Matt.
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Good evening.

Melissa became a hurricane today and appears to be undergoing rapid intensification. An eye should become visible soon. Melissa has been drifting for the past few days and hasn't moved very much. The NHC is currently forecasting it to become a Cat 4 hurricane and make landfall over Jamaica on Tuesday. This will be both a wind and rain event. Hispaniola may be spared the wind however widespread flooding and land slides will be a problem for Jamaica, Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba.

High pressure continues to protect Florida.

Until next time,

                                         Matt.

Good afternoon.

Tropical Storm Melissa formed earlier today and is expected to slow down tomorrow and then drift northward for 4-5 days. This could become a huge rain event for Hispaniola.

​After that current conditions would favor a move to the N and NE across Eastern Cuba and then through the Southeastern Bahamas.   The wild card however will be its slow motion. It may even stall. This could allow conditions to change. We're going to have to wait on this one as slow moving systems are more difficult to predict for just that reason. For example, if the high pressure currently over the Western Gulf and Mexico should strengthen and move eastward it could move it towards Central America.

SE Florida currently appears to be a low risk from this system. Hopefully a frontal system will continue to remain to our south.

It is over very warm water however abundant shear to its north should slow development.

Until next time, 
 
                                                        Matt.
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Just an announcement. The Rare Fruit Council International will be sponsoring an event on Saturday, November 8th in Redland. For those of you who attended last year it was a lot of fun. It will be an even bigger event this year with more vendors and food. The Groove Brother's will be playing again which is a great band. The proceeds will benefit the RFCI a not for profit educational club. 

The property is located on Krome Avenue immediately south of By Brothers, look for the Fruteria Los Mendez sign and the yellow Roasted Corn sign.

There are a limited number of tickets available and the event will likely sell out so if interested I would recommend buying tickets earlier rather than late.

I will be at the event and hope to see you there,

                                                 Matt.
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Good morning.

​Our first cold front of the season is pushing through SE Florida as we speak. This will continue to protect the state as well as the east coast of the US.

I'll be continuing to  watch closely however we're still looking good.

Until next time,

                                                Matt.

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Good evening.

The last area of disturbed weather that I talked about has become H Humberto which is moving out to sea. A second area is showing signs of slow development and may be come TS Imelda tomorrow. 

The weak frontal boundary that was over and just south of South Florida for the past 3 plus weeks has dissipated, however a new frontal system ,currently over north central Florida, is slowly moving SE and will likely replace it. This should help to protect Florida from potential Imelda however as it is still to our west it will allow the system to come closer, however it should still miss the state. The area at potential risk are the Coastal Carolinas, however I suspect that it will stall just off the coast and then move NE along the  advancing front, out to sea. 

Elsewhere a couple of weak waves are about to move off the coast of Africa which I'll be watching.

Until next time,
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                                        Matt.

Good morning.

The NHC is tracking a couple of systems out there however neither currently pose a threat to the US. The stalled frontal boundary currently just east of Florida and the SE US has pushed a little eastward.
This is the feature which has keep South Florida in a very rainy pattern for the past 3 weeks. This will continue to protect the US. Both Gabrielle and the potential system behind should follow a similar path out to sea.

As noted previously I do not anticipate anything of significant for the US until October.

The Saharan dust and dry air are still out there but are becoming more fragmented, however they continue to hamper tropical development.

Until next time,

                                              Matt.
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Good morning.

Another quick update. The weak wave which I discussed in my last 2 updates, not unexpectedly has succumbed to the Saharan dust and dry air surrounding it.

There are a couple of waves over Africa. One should come off the coast tomorrow at around 17 degrees north (too far north to likely affect Florida-likely move out to sea) and will encounter even more dry, air, ie likely be slow to develop or fade and another at around 5 degrees N is about 6 days from emerging off the coast however is too far south to develop.

We may not see anything of significance until October.

Until next time,

                                       Matt.

Good afternoon.

​The weak tropical wave which I wrote about last has been moving slowly westward since my last update. I am writing now because it is currently well south of where the NHC had forecast to be at this point in time. It should still miss Florida however its more southerly track could bring it closer to South Florida  and the Bahamas.

The key will be if it should enter the Caribbean or not. If it moves north of the Virgin Islands it should miss the US and the Bahamas.

If it should enter the Caribbean a track through the Bahamas would become more likely. It is currently encountering a lot of dry air and Saharan dust and development will be slow to occur. 

A stalled frontal boundary just South of Florida will hopefully keep it away from Florida however of note is that it is moving very slowly, currently 10mph, and over time conditions will change. The slower it goes the less certainty in any forecast. 

Hopefully in a few days we'll see a shift in its track to the NW as many of the models are forecasting.

I'll be watching it.

Until next time, 

                                                 Matt.