Good morning.

The NHC is tracking a couple of systems out there however neither currently pose a threat to the US. The stalled frontal boundary currently just east of Florida and the SE US has pushed a little eastward.
This is the feature which has keep South Florida in a very rainy pattern for the past 3 weeks. This will continue to protect the US. Both Gabrielle and the potential system behind should follow a similar path out to sea.

As noted previously I do not anticipate anything of significant for the US until October.

The Saharan dust and dry air are still out there but are becoming more fragmented, however they continue to hamper tropical development.

Until next time,

                                              Matt.
​

Good morning.

Another quick update. The weak wave which I discussed in my last 2 updates, not unexpectedly has succumbed to the Saharan dust and dry air surrounding it.

There are a couple of waves over Africa. One should come off the coast tomorrow at around 17 degrees north (too far north to likely affect Florida-likely move out to sea) and will encounter even more dry, air, ie likely be slow to develop or fade and another at around 5 degrees N is about 6 days from emerging off the coast however is too far south to develop.

We may not see anything of significance until October.

Until next time,

                                       Matt.

Good afternoon.

​The weak tropical wave which I wrote about last has been moving slowly westward since my last update. I am writing now because it is currently well south of where the NHC had forecast to be at this point in time. It should still miss Florida however its more southerly track could bring it closer to South Florida  and the Bahamas.

The key will be if it should enter the Caribbean or not. If it moves north of the Virgin Islands it should miss the US and the Bahamas.

If it should enter the Caribbean a track through the Bahamas would become more likely. It is currently encountering a lot of dry air and Saharan dust and development will be slow to occur. 

A stalled frontal boundary just South of Florida will hopefully keep it away from Florida however of note is that it is moving very slowly, currently 10mph, and over time conditions will change. The slower it goes the less certainty in any forecast. 

Hopefully in a few days we'll see a shift in its track to the NW as many of the models are forecasting.

I'll be watching it.

Until next time, 

                                                 Matt.

Good morning.

​Another quick update. So far so good.

A weak disturbance off the coast of Africa is encountering abundant dry air and Saharan dust and is unlikely to become a hurricane and even if it does it would miss the US. 

A strong wave over Africa is about a week from coming off the coast and is over 2 weeks away, that will be the next one to watch. 

South Florida is currently under the influence of a weak pressure pattern with light W to SW winds aloft and an old frontal boundary in our vicinity. This will lead to afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the next several days.

There probably won't be much to write about for the next 1-2 weeks, possibly longer.

Until next time,

                                               Matt.

Good evening.

Just another quick update. Erin is moving out to sea after fortunately missing the US.
A wave behind it should miss the US as well.
 A third wave wave over the central Tropical Atlantic is heading towards the Caribbean however it will encounter significant dry air along the way as well as shear as it enters the Caribbean. It if does manage develop in spite of those obstacles high pressure over Cuba and South Florida would likely steer it towards Belize.

The waves which we will need to watch are currently over tropical Africa, see bottom infrared image of Africa. I'll be watching them as they make their way westward over the next couple of weeks.

Until next time,
​
                                            Matt.

Good afternoon.

Just a quick update. Erin has been proceeding as forecast. All the models are in strong agreement with it missing the US. Erin underwent rapid intensification yesterday and went from a 75 mph Cat 1 to a 165 mph Cat 5 in less than a day. It is currently down to a 125 mph Cat 3. Conditions have to be perfect for storms to maintain Cat 5 status. In fact the longest any storm has been at Cat 5 is around 24 hours.

Though intense Erin is a very compact storm with hurricane force winds extending only 20 miles from the center. Yesterday at peak intensity the eye was only 6 miles across.

Over the next several days due to centripetal force its wind field should expand.

Elsewhere a weak potential wave will probably follow a path similar to Erin's.

Note Erin on it's current track is actually a very good things as it should remove a lot of heat from a key part of the ocean, reducing the risk of stronger storms near its path. 

Until next time,

                                                   Matt.
​

Good morning.

Erin is forecast to become a hurricane today. It is still expected to turn NW, then N then NE and miss the US. Its main impact is that as it intensifies over the next 5 day it will likely significantly erode the Saharan dust and dry air that has been protecting the US since May. This will potentially lead to more storms developing in the Tropical Atlantic. It won't affect where they go. See Saharan Air Layer Analysis below. High pressure over Florida currently should protect the state.

Until next time,

                                                  Matt.

Good morning.

Just a quick update. Tropical storm Erin is currently headed generally toward Florida however it is not likely to hit the state nor the US. If you look at the SAL diagram 3 below you can see that is encountering a lot of dry air and has a lot more to pass through. Next notice the forecast surface map for 4 days out as it approaches the Bahamas. It will likely turn north before reaching the Bahamas and then NE towards a stalled frontal boundary extending from the Carolinas out into the Atlantic. 

I'll be watching it however it is not likely to threaten the US. After it passes through the dry air it should intensify and hopefully pull a lot of heat out of the ocean in the process.

Until next time,

                                                      Matt.
​

Good morning.

Just a quick update. As expected the 2025 tropical season has been off to a slow start due to large amounts of Sharan dust and shear however things are starting to change. There are currently 2 potential systems out there however neither poses a threat to the US.

The main things to note, see graphic below, are that the Saharan dust and dry air continue to cover a large part of the Tropical Atlantic however it's breadth is starting to thin.
Next notice on the surface map that high pressure that had been centered over the central Gulf and Florida most of the summer to date, has now shifted westward and the Bermuda High has shifted westward opening a window from the tropics into Florida. This is why we have been seeing more rainfall the past few days.

Next notice that wind shear has markedly decreased across the Caribbean and the Western Atlantic. Once the Saharan layer further erodes we are likely to see an uptick in storms. Hopefully the current dust will delay thing until the window moves away from Florida.

Next notice sea surface temperatures and heat content. The Caribbean the Gulf and the Bahamas currently have the warmest waters. The eastern Atlantic waters are relative cooler which will hopefully lead to fewer Cape Verde storms this year. 
The Caribbean and Gulf season usually starts mid-late September thru October. 

We currently look good but in a couple of weeks things may change. I'll be watching.

Until next time,

                                                   Matt.

​

Good morning.

Just a quick update. Currently very unfavorable conditions exist across the Atlantic Basin with abundant Saharan Dust, dry air and high shear.

It will probably be a while before we see any significant tropical development.

Until next time,

                                                    Matt.