Good morning.

Since Monday the NHC's track on Rafael has changed. It moved faster than anticipated and the high pressure over the SE US coast has elongated and the NHC is now expecting it to move further west and south. If you look at the models, bottom graphic, you can see that the models are really all over the place. This is a low probability forecast. Someone anywhere from Southern Mexico to Alabama is likely to get a tropical storm next week. Its really too early to say where. The good news is that it should remove much of the remaining heat in the Gulf and due to dry air, wind shear and cooler waters should weaken. The longer it takes to make landfall likely the better as it will have more time to weaken.

Elsewhere a tropical disturbance just north of the NE Caribbean will need to be watched. The NHC is currently giving it a 30% chance of tropical development over the next week. Wind shear and dry air ahead of it should slow development. I'll be watching. Currently a track through the Florida Straits would appear most likely. Hopefully it won't develop or if it does, after it is past South Florida.

Until next time.

                                               Matt.

​

Good morning.

The NHC has been watching an area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean for about a week now. This morning it designated it Potential Tropical Cyclone # 18. They anticipate that it will become Tropical Storm Rafael later today. 

IF you look at the Surface Map below you will notice strong high pressure just off the SE US coast. This will tend to steer it toward the Northern Gulf Coast. This high pressure is forecast to move a little to the east. Currently it would tend to move it toward Louisiana, however timing will be the key. A faster motion could move it closer to Texas where as slower motion could steer towards Alabama or even the Florida Panhandle.

It is currently forecast to track over some of the warmest waters left in the Atlantic Basin (the northern and western Caribbean) and it is forecast to become a hurricane.

The good new however is that there is abundant dry air, cooler waters and significant shear over the Gulf of Mexico and the NHC currently forecasting it to be a tropical storm at landfall. It is way too early to predict intensity at this point in time and we'll just have to see how things evolve. South Florida may experience some associated showers Wednesday to Thursday morning however it should be far enough away to avoid any significant weather.

Until next time,

                                                     Matt.
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Good evening.

Since my last post not much has changed with now Hurricane Oscar. Strong west-southwesterly shear remains over Florida and should continue to protect the state.

Until next time , 

                                   Matt.

Good evening.

Just a quick update. The NHC is currently tracking a weak disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic and is giving a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. It is unlikely to affect the US. If you look at the surface map below you will see high pressure over the Central Atlantic as well as over the Gulf of Mexico. In addition if you look at the wind shear analysis below you will see strong WSW winds/ shear, over Florida. It will likely turn away from the US as it approaches the Bahamas. I do not expect to need to write further about this system. 

If things should change, I'll let you know.
FYI even most of the models are in agreement  with me on this.

Until next time,

                                             Matt. 

​Good afternoon.

This is a non-weather report. Its an FYI.

The Rare Fruit Council International/ RFCI (a not for profit educational society /club of which I am the Vice President) is going to be sponsoring an event, a fruit jamboree at my farm on November 9th. We'll have farm tours, educational programs, fruit, plant and fruit tree sales, things for kids, food, a band and other vendors. It's going to be a fun event . The proceeds will be going to the RFCI.

Tickets will be limited so if you're interested I would recommend purchasing them sooner than later.

If you go to the Eventbrite.com site on the bottom of the flier and enter Redlands Jamboree you can get more information.

Good morning.

Milton is currently moving off into the Atlantic. Dry air is moving into the state with fair weather which should aid in the recovery efforts.

Data reports are coming in, this is what we have so far.

Peak winds :

Venice 107
Sarasota 102
St Pete 93
Tampa 85
Daytona 76
Orlando 74

Rainfall:

St Pete 15.31
Tampa 10.48
Bradenton 7.46.
Orlando 6.00
Osprey 5.10
Ft. Myers 3.67
Sarasota 3.16
West Plam Bch 1.65
Ft Lauderdale 0.24
Miami 0.04

Until next time,

​                                                  Matt.

Good evening.

Milton is currently making landfall at 27.21 degrees N & 82.50 W  centered over Osprey and Oaks Club, FL. Tampa is currently in the northern eye wall with winds out of the east. We'll know more tomorrow.

                                                Matt.
​

Good evening.

Since this morning there have been several changes with Milton. Most importantly it is encountering significant shear and it is weakening. During the day it has been moving faster and well north of where the NHC had anticipated it to be at this time. The models and the NHC track now take the center just south of Tampa Bay, near Sarasota and Bradenton.

If you look at the radar below you notice first is that the eye now is very large, probably 40-50 miles across and all of the areas which we've been talking about the past few days will probably receive eye wall. The pressures have been rising steadily all day and have risen from 909 mbs this am to 948 mbs at 5 pm. They will continue to rise and Milton will continue to weaken. The center is around 70 miles from shore however with the large eye, the eye wall will arrive much sooner than the center. Most of the weather due to shear is now north of the center and the SW eye wall is now open. This will lead to further weakening. ? will it be enough, probably not however every little bit will help to reduce the extent of damage and injuries. The NHC is currently forecasting peak sustained winds to be around 115 mph, 100-110 may be more likely however it will still be enough to to cause extensive damage particularly to wooden structures. At least it is not the 165 mph Cat 5 we saw this morning.

SE Florida will likely experience little effects, especially with almost all of the weather now north of the center.

If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice a lot of dry air behind it, yellows and blues. This is also helping to weaken it. After it passes this will move into the state.

Elsewhere everything else is moving out to sea.

Hoping everyone out there is safe.

Until next time,

                                                           Matt.

​

Good morning.

Since yesterday Milton's track hasn't changed nor the reasoning, however if you look at the water vapor loop below you can see that Milton's eye has gotten smaller which has allowed it to fend off the shear north of it. You can see dry air moving in behind it however it has not yet begun to wrap into it. In light of this the NHC has adjusted their intensity forecast upwards and is now predicting it to be a 130 mph Cat 4 at landfall. They expect the shear to start affecting it today however, we still need to see that happen. The only other difference in their forecast is that they now anticipate the hurricane force winds to extend up to 35 miles on either side of the eye. In other words a 70 mile wide swath could experience hurricane conditions. Major hurricane conditions will be in the eye wall, the breath of which will depend on the size of the eye at landfall. At the intensity forecast I would expect a 20-30 mile wide eye, with an eye wall 3-5 miles wide, which means you would need to be within 20 miles of the center to get the major hurricane, a 40 mile wide swath. It will start to weaken after landfall.

It's forward speed has increased to 14 mph and it should approach the coast tonight.

I'll write again this evening.

Until next time,
                                                            Matt.
​

Good evening.

Here we go. Milton has remained south of where the NHC had forecast it to be at most of the day today. This has allowed it to re-intensity back to Cat 5 status. Over the past 3 hour however it finally appear to have begun its NE move and if its current trajectory holds it should make landfall along the west central Florida coast in the vicinity of Oaks Club/ Osprey Florida. (27.21 degrees north). The NHC has moved the center of its track a little southward though theirs still remains a little north of mine, towards Sarasota. 

Due to its intensity and small 10 mile wide eye it has been fending off the shear to its north. As it moves further north it should start to weaken, however it may not weaken enough. Only time will tell. The longer it maintains its compact structure, the less time it will have to weaken, however it will be encountering ever increasing shear as it moves northward. I really want to see how it does overnight.

The current forecast wind fields for when it makes landfall are as are as follows:

Hurricane force winds to extend 35 miles to the NE and SE of the center
Strong storm force winds (50-70 mph) to extend 80 NE and 60 miles SE of the center.
Weak storm force winds (40-50 mph) to extend 230 miles to the NE and 140 miles to the SE of the center.

On the NHC's track it would pass
35 miles south of Tampa.   (50 miles N of my track)
60 miles south of Orlando
200 miles north of Miami
35 miles north of Ft Myers ( 20 miles N of my track)
140 miles north of Boca Raton

SE Florida should experience winds in the 20s with gusts in the 30s in squalls. 1-3" of rain.
Those closer to the center of the path could receive up to 4-8 inches of rain. Potentially more including the pre storm rain tomorrow.
​
Ft Myers to Sarasota will probably receive the most weather. My best wishes extend to everyone in its path. I'm still hoping for a white knight to come in late in the forecast period and weaken it, every bit will help.

I will continue to monitor it closely and update as needed.

Until next time,

                                                              Matt.