Good evening.

Since my last post not much has changed with now Hurricane Oscar. Strong west-southwesterly shear remains over Florida and should continue to protect the state.

Until next time , 

                                   Matt.

Good evening.

Just a quick update. The NHC is currently tracking a weak disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic and is giving a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. It is unlikely to affect the US. If you look at the surface map below you will see high pressure over the Central Atlantic as well as over the Gulf of Mexico. In addition if you look at the wind shear analysis below you will see strong WSW winds/ shear, over Florida. It will likely turn away from the US as it approaches the Bahamas. I do not expect to need to write further about this system. 

If things should change, I'll let you know.
FYI even most of the models are in agreement  with me on this.

Until next time,

                                             Matt. 

​Good afternoon.

This is a non-weather report. Its an FYI.

The Rare Fruit Council International/ RFCI (a not for profit educational society /club of which I am the Vice President) is going to be sponsoring an event, a fruit jamboree at my farm on November 9th. We'll have farm tours, educational programs, fruit, plant and fruit tree sales, things for kids, food, a band and other vendors. It's going to be a fun event . The proceeds will be going to the RFCI.

Tickets will be limited so if you're interested I would recommend purchasing them sooner than later.

If you go to the Eventbrite.com site on the bottom of the flier and enter Redlands Jamboree you can get more information.

Good morning.

Milton is currently moving off into the Atlantic. Dry air is moving into the state with fair weather which should aid in the recovery efforts.

Data reports are coming in, this is what we have so far.

Peak winds :

Venice 107
Sarasota 102
St Pete 93
Tampa 85
Daytona 76
Orlando 74

Rainfall:

St Pete 15.31
Tampa 10.48
Bradenton 7.46.
Orlando 6.00
Osprey 5.10
Ft. Myers 3.67
Sarasota 3.16
West Plam Bch 1.65
Ft Lauderdale 0.24
Miami 0.04

Until next time,

​                                                  Matt.

Good evening.

Milton is currently making landfall at 27.21 degrees N & 82.50 W  centered over Osprey and Oaks Club, FL. Tampa is currently in the northern eye wall with winds out of the east. We'll know more tomorrow.

                                                Matt.
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Good evening.

Since this morning there have been several changes with Milton. Most importantly it is encountering significant shear and it is weakening. During the day it has been moving faster and well north of where the NHC had anticipated it to be at this time. The models and the NHC track now take the center just south of Tampa Bay, near Sarasota and Bradenton.

If you look at the radar below you notice first is that the eye now is very large, probably 40-50 miles across and all of the areas which we've been talking about the past few days will probably receive eye wall. The pressures have been rising steadily all day and have risen from 909 mbs this am to 948 mbs at 5 pm. They will continue to rise and Milton will continue to weaken. The center is around 70 miles from shore however with the large eye, the eye wall will arrive much sooner than the center. Most of the weather due to shear is now north of the center and the SW eye wall is now open. This will lead to further weakening. ? will it be enough, probably not however every little bit will help to reduce the extent of damage and injuries. The NHC is currently forecasting peak sustained winds to be around 115 mph, 100-110 may be more likely however it will still be enough to to cause extensive damage particularly to wooden structures. At least it is not the 165 mph Cat 5 we saw this morning.

SE Florida will likely experience little effects, especially with almost all of the weather now north of the center.

If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice a lot of dry air behind it, yellows and blues. This is also helping to weaken it. After it passes this will move into the state.

Elsewhere everything else is moving out to sea.

Hoping everyone out there is safe.

Until next time,

                                                           Matt.

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Good morning.

Since yesterday Milton's track hasn't changed nor the reasoning, however if you look at the water vapor loop below you can see that Milton's eye has gotten smaller which has allowed it to fend off the shear north of it. You can see dry air moving in behind it however it has not yet begun to wrap into it. In light of this the NHC has adjusted their intensity forecast upwards and is now predicting it to be a 130 mph Cat 4 at landfall. They expect the shear to start affecting it today however, we still need to see that happen. The only other difference in their forecast is that they now anticipate the hurricane force winds to extend up to 35 miles on either side of the eye. In other words a 70 mile wide swath could experience hurricane conditions. Major hurricane conditions will be in the eye wall, the breath of which will depend on the size of the eye at landfall. At the intensity forecast I would expect a 20-30 mile wide eye, with an eye wall 3-5 miles wide, which means you would need to be within 20 miles of the center to get the major hurricane, a 40 mile wide swath. It will start to weaken after landfall.

It's forward speed has increased to 14 mph and it should approach the coast tonight.

I'll write again this evening.

Until next time,
                                                            Matt.
​

Good evening.

Here we go. Milton has remained south of where the NHC had forecast it to be at most of the day today. This has allowed it to re-intensity back to Cat 5 status. Over the past 3 hour however it finally appear to have begun its NE move and if its current trajectory holds it should make landfall along the west central Florida coast in the vicinity of Oaks Club/ Osprey Florida. (27.21 degrees north). The NHC has moved the center of its track a little southward though theirs still remains a little north of mine, towards Sarasota. 

Due to its intensity and small 10 mile wide eye it has been fending off the shear to its north. As it moves further north it should start to weaken, however it may not weaken enough. Only time will tell. The longer it maintains its compact structure, the less time it will have to weaken, however it will be encountering ever increasing shear as it moves northward. I really want to see how it does overnight.

The current forecast wind fields for when it makes landfall are as are as follows:

Hurricane force winds to extend 35 miles to the NE and SE of the center
Strong storm force winds (50-70 mph) to extend 80 NE and 60 miles SE of the center.
Weak storm force winds (40-50 mph) to extend 230 miles to the NE and 140 miles to the SE of the center.

On the NHC's track it would pass
35 miles south of Tampa.   (50 miles N of my track)
60 miles south of Orlando
200 miles north of Miami
35 miles north of Ft Myers ( 20 miles N of my track)
140 miles north of Boca Raton

SE Florida should experience winds in the 20s with gusts in the 30s in squalls. 1-3" of rain.
Those closer to the center of the path could receive up to 4-8 inches of rain. Potentially more including the pre storm rain tomorrow.
​
Ft Myers to Sarasota will probably receive the most weather. My best wishes extend to everyone in its path. I'm still hoping for a white knight to come in late in the forecast period and weaken it, every bit will help.

I will continue to monitor it closely and update as needed.

Until next time,

                                                              Matt.

Good morning.

If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice a few things. Most obvious is that Milton is starting to become more asymmetric and wobbling more, its eye is fluctuating and larger. It is also gaining latitude. It is starting to feel the affects of the shear to its north. It has weakened some and is currently a strong Cat 4 hurricane. Further weakening is anticipated and the NHC is currently forecasting a 125 mph Cat 3 at landfall, which is currently at the high end of their guidance. That would be a very strong hurricane and everyone in its path should be making preparations and plans.

My track has not changed since yesterday. If you look at the wind shear analysis below you can see that Milton will be steadily encountering increasing shear as it gains latitude. We can only hope that it weakens as much as possible. We'll know more about intensity tomorrow.

I will write tonight about what specific regions can expect.

Until next time,

                                                       Matt.

​

Good evening.

Today has been a historic day in the tropic with Hurricane Milton going from a 100 mph Cat 2 at 5 am to a 180 mph Cat 5 at 8 PM. Its barometric pressure of 897 mbs is the 4th lowest recorded in the Atlantic basin. (The lowest ever recorded was with Hurricane Wilma on 10/16/05 of 882 mbs.) Fortunately it will NOT be a Cat 5 at landfall along the West Coast of Florida early Thursday. The longest any hurricane has maintained Cat 5 intensity is around 24 hrs. Conditions have to be perfect for Cat 5s to exist. Conditions will not be perfect for Milton on Wednesday and Thursday.

If you look a the water vapor loop below you will notice a few things. First you will notice Milton's eye during its incredible intensification period. Watch it shrink. Like a ballerina folding in her arms the eye tightens as it intensifies. It goes from approximately 10 miles across to probably less than 3 miles, incredibly small. Next notice that it is starting to gain latitude. This is good news because the sooner it gets further north the sooner it will start to encounter significant shear. As it does so the eye should start to expand and the winds should start to lessen, just how much we will have to see.
 Also notice the dry air, yellow, to its north. This should start to entrain into the system tomorrow as it moves further north which should also tend to weaken it. 

If you look at the models below you will notice extremely tight agreement amongst them over the next 24 hours after that there is a little spread. The models are currently pretty much in line with the track I noted this morning. The official NHC track continues to point to towards Tampa. 

Tomorrow will be key in predicting Milton's precise path. We should have a better idea by about this time tomorrow. The NHC is currently calling for landfall around 1 am Thursday morning. Timing will also be key. The slower it goes the better as it will give the shear more time to weaken it, ie if it arrives sooner it will be stronger, the later the weaker. In addition centripetal forces will tend to expand the wind field with time at the expense of intensity which along with widening of the eye should lead to some more weakening. All we can hope for is as weak a system as possible at landfall, though it will not be weak. By Wednesday morning we should have better idea as to just what we can expect. This is likely to be a significant hurricane. 

I'll be writing again tomorrow.

Until then,

                                                      Matt.

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