Good afternoon.

Hurricane Helene continues to move as forecast. Winds at 2 pm were up to 110 mph and some additional strengthening is forecast, The NHC is currently forecasting a 120 mph Cat 3 at landfall. It currently has a large eye clearly visible on radar below.. If it shrinks down it may even attain Cat 4 status. It is starting to accelerate to the NNE and should make landfall late tonight.

SE Florida has had little associated weather today.

Until next time,

                                    Matt.

Good morning.

TS Helene is currently approaching the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and should become a hurricane soon. It is becoming much better organized and at 5 am had a central pressure of 985 mbs. It usually takes a central pressure of 982-983 mbs to be a hurricane, ie it is close. It is moving NW and has slowed. This is a sign that it about to turn to the north. Systems almost always slow prior to a change in direction. If you look at the surface map below you can see the the high pressure over NW Florida has shifted eastward as anticipated in my last forecast. This should leave a clear path to the Florida Panhandle. We are unlikely to see a significant deviation from this track. It should start to accelerate northward tomorrow between the two strong high pressure systems, 1 over the Western Atlantic just east of N Florida and the other over the S Central US. If you look at the water vapor loop bottom diagram you can see the frontal boundary over the SE US very slowly moving eastward.

Helene is currently west of where it was anticipated to be at this time yesterday and as a result the NHC has shifted its track slightly to the west. There may be some further slight changes, but not a lot.

South Florida should experience some passing showers this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow morning however as it consolidates over the Gulf most of the weather will be drawn inward and affect primarily the West Coast of Florida. Shear has increased over the Gulf however Helene will be moving in the direction of the shear which will effectively lessen it. The intensity forecast will be tricky but in general the faster it moves the better. The NHC is currently forecasting it to be a 120 mph Cat 3 at landfall. It could be more, hopefully a little less.

Wishing everyone in its path the best.

Until next time,

                                                  Matt. 

Good evening.

I am writing about Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 which is likely to become Tropical Storm Helene tomorrow. The NHC is currently forecasting it to make landfall along the Florida Panhandle late Thursday. It is currently undergoing quite a bit of shear from the SW which is displacing most of its associated weather to its NE. Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico the shear will lessen and it will likely become a hurricane. (See Wind Shear Analysis below) It is in an area of extremely warm water, see Sea Surface temps below, and rapid intensification is forecast after it enters the Gulf.

If you look at the surface map below you will see that high pressure remains over Florida. If you look at the bottom water vapor loop you will notice a frontal system over the Mississippi Valley moving eastward as well as a large upper level low over the Western Atlantic with a trailing frontal boundary moving ESE. This will allow the high pressure over Florida to shift eastward. Just where that frontal boundary is late Thursday afternoon will determine where Helene makes landfall. The slower it moves the further east it may go. Conversely a faster motion could lead to a more westerly track.

This time of year cold fronts generally do not make it into South Florida and SE Florida is at low risk from this system.

With the low shear and warm waters beneath it it has the potential of becoming a major hurricane prior to landfall. A return of shear in the Northern Gulf may potentially slow or stop intensification the last few hours before landfall. The models are currently in fairly close agreement with the current NHC track however as alway things can change. As noted above timing will be the key.

The current Wind Field forecast is included, next to bottom diagram.

Until next time,

                                     Matt.

Good morning.

Another quick update. Tropical depression #6 will probably form today in the SW Gulf of Mexico. This is not unexpected, see Sea Surface Temps, bottom diagram. Nature always finds the heat.

A stalled frontal boundary across northern Florida will drift into Central Florida today which will increase rain chances across South Florida for the next several days until it drift back northward. High pressure over Florida has moved southward and is now over South Florida and the Florida Straits. This will continue to protect Florida. 

There are a couple of other waves out there however they should turn north, east of Florida.

Until next tme,

                                                         Matt.

Good morning.

Just a quick update. There are a couple of tropical waves out there but neither poses a threat to Florida. A broad trough over the Bahamas however, should move slowly west and lead to increased shower activity this Labor Day weekend.

High pressure over Florida is currently protecting the state.  We should be at low risk for anything for at least 2-3 weeks.

Until next time,

                                             Matt.
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Just a quick update.

TS Ernesto formed last night. If you look at the surface map below you can the window is open well to our east. It should turn north and move out to sea.

Until next time,

                                                 Matt.
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​Good morning.

Just a quick update. The NHC is tracking another tropical wave currently in the Central Tropical Atlantic. It is expecting it to become a tropical depression in about week. If you look at the Saharan Air Layer Analysis below you can see that it has abundant dry air to its north which will hamper development until it late in the forecast period. As it approaches the Caribbean shear will lessen as well. 

Just where it forms, if it does, will be key. If it forms and tracks north of the islands it would likely turn north over the Bahamas and miss the US. Conversely if it enters the Caribbean and tracks south of them and Cuba it could potentially threaten the West Coast of Florida. 

We're just going to have to wait and see how things evolve. Conditions in a week will likely be a little different than they are today. I'll likely post again in a few day.

Until next time,

                                                     Matt.

​P.S. Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee centered over the mouth of the Suwannee River (see 8-3-24, 5 am forecast) and is finally leaving the US.

Good morning.

Hurricane Debby is about to make land fall on Florida's Big Bend. Rapid intensification never happened and peak winds are currently 80 mph. Little additional strengthening is likely. Winds should drop off rapidly after landfall though it is expected to maintain tropical storm status. It's main effects will be rainfall and flooding as previously stated.

If you look at the rainfall forecast, bottom diagram, rainfall of 20-30 inches is forecast for the Savannah/ Bluffton area. It will certainly vary from this projection, however some areas will experience significant flooding which could take several days to weeks to subside.

Elsewhere a weak tropical wave is entering the Caribbean. The NHC is currently giving it only a 10-20% chance for development, and it is expected to stay well south of Florida.

Until next time,

                                                 Matt.
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Good afternoon.

TS Debby is currently west of the Tampa Bay area and continues to head towards the Big Bend area of Florida. At 11 am peak winds had increased to 65 mph and the NHC is currently forecasting it to be a 90 mph Cat one at landfall tomorrow morning. It is even possible that it will be a 100-120 mph Cat 2 or 3 at landfall, due to the lack of shear and very warm waters. Since yesterday Debby has become much better organized with intense convection currently near its center. Rapid intensification is expected. The limiting factor will be time. The longer it is over the water the stronger it will get.  After landfall it will start to encounter shear which will help it to weaken.

If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice that the cold front over the SE US is no longer advancing, it is stationary. The NHC is forecasting it to move NE tomorrow and strand Debby over SE Georgia and Coastal South Carolina. This could lead to historic flooding for SE GA and Coastal SC, with greatest accumulations likely in the Savannah, GA and Bluffton, SC areas. If it re-emerges into the Atlantic even more rainfall can be expected.

With its consolidation strong winds should be limited to the Big Bend area. Its biggest effects will be heavy rainfall and flooding after landfall. The best we can hope for is that it arrives sooner than forecast and has less time to intensify. Fortunately it will miss Tampa. 

Until next time,

​                                                   Matt.

PS. Rainfall yesterday at my house totaled 2.19". None so far today.

Good morning.

Late last night our tropical wave was designated TD #4 with the development of a clear circulation south of Cuba noted on radar images. The system remains poorly organized. Yesterday the NHC had expected a center to have formed along the North Coast of Cuba, in the Florida Straits. Its more southern location has shifted the NHC's track and the models to the west. It is expected to cross Western Cuba today and enter the Gulf of Mexico late this afternoon, early evening. This will lead to a more prolonged track over very warm water. If it can become better organized it definitely has the potential to become a hurricane prior to landfall.

The NHC is currently forecasting it to be a 70 mph tropical storm at land fall along the Big Bend area of Florida. ? Near the mouth of the Suwannee River? There is currently not a lot of weather associated with it though I would expect that to change after it enters the Gulf. The more western track will keep it further away from South Florida and I would anticipate little weather along the SE Florida coast.

If you look at the Surface Map below you can see that the window between the Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico highs has now shifted westward with the center in the Steinhatchee area along the Big Bend of Florida.

If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice TD #4 with high pressure developing over it with clockwise rotation of high clouds above it, a large upper level low south of Bermuda moving slowing to the NE and a cold front along the SE US continuing to push SE. This will prevent it from moving further west.

I will write again tomorrow when we'll have a better idea of just what type of storm to expect along the Florida West Coast.

Until next time,

                                                     Matt.

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