Good morning.

Milton has continued to intensify overnight. If you look at the water vapor image below you will notice a few things. First is that the cold front has moved further south and now spans across North Florida. Next notice that Milton has not moved very much since yesterday. Lastly notice that it has moved ESE and is well south of where the NHC had forecast it to be at this time. It remains in an area of low shear though notice that the shear has moved south as well.

The NHC's track hasn't changed much. Based on its current position I suspect that a more southerly track will be more likely and my current track takes it mid way between Tampa and Ft Myers, currently centered near Oaks Club, FL, a little north of where Ian made landfall. The NHC is still forecasting it to be a Cat 3 at landfall. The intensity forecast will be difficult with this one due to the increasing shear. In general the further south it goes the potentially stronger it may me, as shear will steadily increase the further north it gets. Timing will also be a factor. The slower if goes the potentially weaker it may become due to a longer time in the high shear environment. I currently suspect it will arrive a little later that currently forecast due to how slow it is moving now.

Where it is tomorrow night will be key.

I'll Be watching it closely.

Until next time,

                                                    Matt.

Good evening.

Just a quick update. Milton has been steadily intensifying all day and is currently an 85 mph Cat 1 Hurricane. The NHC's track and reasoning have not changed since this morning. The only  thing that has changed is their intensity forecast. They expect it to become a major hurricane tomorrow and peak out with winds of 145 mph, and then weaken to a 120 mph Cat 3 at landfall. Intensity forecasts are very difficult and both a stronger or weaker system could come ashore as discussed this am.

Milton is currently a very small storm with hurricane fore winds only extending 15-20 miles south of the center, none to its north. With a stronger storm forecast the wind field is also forecast to expand and Milton is expected to be much larger at landfall on Wednesday. As things become clearer I will give a more detailed analysis of what people in Florida can expect.

Until next time,

                                                            Matt.

​

Good morning.

Since yesterday a couple of things have changed with regards to TS Milton's forecast. The biggest is the increasing uncertainty as to its projected intensity at landfall. If you look at the Wind Shear Analysis below you can see that Milton is currently in a low shear environment however once it starts to move more to the north it will encounter significant shear. Since yesterday Milton has moved little. If formed yesterday shortly after my forecast about 2 d prior to when the NHC had originally anticipated it to. This is going to give it more time over water. Unlike Helene, Milton is a very small system, this makes it potentially more susceptible to shear, however, rapidly strengthening small systems can sometimes overcome the affects of shear due to the rapid outflow above them while they are intensifying.

Milton is currently moving slowly eastward towards a stationary front across South Florida. A cold front over the SE US is forecast to move southward to over North Florida as Milton approaches Florida and the weaker stationary front is forecast to dissipate, this will allow Milton to be drawn further north. How much time it has in the low shear environment, before it turns NE will be key in how strong it becomes. The NHC expects it to become a major hurricane on Tuesday however it may rapidly weaken prior to landfall, or as noted above it may not. The intensity models vary from Cat 1 to Cat 5 with mean currently forecasting a 110-120 mph hurricane. It will be a tough call. It will start to accelerate to the NE as it approaches Florida.

The models as you can see are all over the place and vary as to when Milton starts to perceive the northern front, for Florida the sooner the better as the intensity will likely level off or decline once it gets north of around 25 degrees.

I will be writing at least daily until Milton passes. Areas from Ft Myers to the Southern Big Bend need to prepare for possible hurricane conditions.

Until next time,

                                                          Matt.

,Good morning.

I am writing about the area of disturbed weather that I last wrote about on Tuesday, 10/1/24. At that time the NHC was watching a broad area of shower activity in the SW caribbean which was slowly moving norhtward and they had their watch area covering the entire Gulf of Mexico. Since then an area of low pressure has formed however it is well west of where they had anticipated, in the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico right along the Mexican coast. See satellite and water vapor images below. Wind shear remains extremely high across the Gulf, see Wind Shear Analysis below, and it is unlikely that this will become a strong system. Then NHC however is giving it a 80% chance of tropical development within the next 7 days. The most likely scenario is that we will see a Tropical Storm making landfall along the west central Florida coast late Wednesday or Thursday. The timing currently is highly variable as it has not formed yet.

The most important diagram which I have included is the 72 hour forecasted Surface Map. An old frontal boundary and stationary front is forecast to cross Florida in the region of Lake Okeechobee. This will be the guiding force for this system. Where exactly it is on Wednesday will predict just where the center of the system makes landfall. That said as only a tropical storm is being forecast, weather is not usually focused in those systems and a fairly broad area will receive a lot of rain and modest winds. Just how much, its too early to say. Central and South Florida should see the most of it. With a stalled front in this region intermittent waves of moisture and rain will pass over these same areas for the next several days until after the system moves off into the Atlantic.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, all of the systems out there continue to be forecast to move out to sea.

I am not overly concerned at this time but will be watching it closely.

I have included a current visible satellite loop where you can all of the current lightning in the pre dawn hours. Notice Lake Maricaibo, the lightning capital of the world, along northwestern Venezuela.

Until next time,

                                               Matt.

​

Good morning.

There are a few systems out there, though only one poses any threat to the US. All of the current Atlantic systems should all move out to sea and miss the US. A very weak disturbance in the SW Caribbean the NHC is giving a 40% chance of development over the next 7 days. A low pressure center currently does not exist though it is over very warm water. If it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico it will encounter high shear and is unlikely to become a strong system. Its greatest threat would be to to potentially add to the historic rainfall from Helene in North Carolina. Western NC has been devastated by up to 30+ inches of rain. Whole towns have been wiped out, many are without power or phone service. Hundreds of roads are closed/washed out. Many people are stranded unable to get out to get food or water. Its unbelievable. 

Helene was a massive storm which contained an unprecedented amount of water. It traversed some extremely warm water with a broad circulation and tracked right over the Gulf Stream's Loop Current for almost its entire trip across the Gulf of Mexico capturing its enormous heat content from the hot Caribbean which contained some of the hottest water in the ocean not having had a significant storm there last year. (ie 2 years worth of heat). It was a massive vacuum cleaner that dropped the water temperatures across the Western Caribbean and much of the Gulf of Mexico by almost 10 degrees. It then converted all of that heat energy into wind energy and rain.

If you really want to be impressed look at the Sea Surface temperatures map from my 9/23/24 forecast a week ago and compare it to the Sea Surface Temperature map of today. That really sums up what happened.

Until next time,

                                                       Matt.

Good afternoon.

This is a non-weather report. Its an FYI.

The Rare Fruit Council International/ RFCI (a not for profit educational society /club of which I am the Vice President) is going to be sponsoring an event, a fruit jamboree at my farm on November 9th. We'll have farm tours, educational programs, fruit, plant and fruit tree sales, things for kids, food, a band and other vendors. It's going to be a fun event . The proceeds will be going to the RFCI.

Tickets will be limited so if you're interested I would recommend purchasing them sooner than later.

If you go to the Eventbrite.com site on the bottom of the flier and enter Redlands Jamboree you can get more information.
​

Good morning. 

Helene made landfall last night around 11 pm in Florida's Big Bend over Perry Florida with 140 mph winds and an pressure of 938 mbs. It was a very large storm with a 30-40 mile wide eye and an unusually thick eye wall of over 10 miles. (Eye walls are usually only 3-5 miles wide.) The damage will be extensive.

Elsewhere there are a few systems out there which currently are not a threat to the US.

My best to all of those out there affected by this storm.

Until next time,

                                           Matt.

Good afternoon.

Hurricane Helene continues to move as forecast. Winds at 2 pm were up to 110 mph and some additional strengthening is forecast, The NHC is currently forecasting a 120 mph Cat 3 at landfall. It currently has a large eye clearly visible on radar below.. If it shrinks down it may even attain Cat 4 status. It is starting to accelerate to the NNE and should make landfall late tonight.

SE Florida has had little associated weather today.

Until next time,

                                    Matt.

Good morning.

TS Helene is currently approaching the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and should become a hurricane soon. It is becoming much better organized and at 5 am had a central pressure of 985 mbs. It usually takes a central pressure of 982-983 mbs to be a hurricane, ie it is close. It is moving NW and has slowed. This is a sign that it about to turn to the north. Systems almost always slow prior to a change in direction. If you look at the surface map below you can see the the high pressure over NW Florida has shifted eastward as anticipated in my last forecast. This should leave a clear path to the Florida Panhandle. We are unlikely to see a significant deviation from this track. It should start to accelerate northward tomorrow between the two strong high pressure systems, 1 over the Western Atlantic just east of N Florida and the other over the S Central US. If you look at the water vapor loop bottom diagram you can see the frontal boundary over the SE US very slowly moving eastward.

Helene is currently west of where it was anticipated to be at this time yesterday and as a result the NHC has shifted its track slightly to the west. There may be some further slight changes, but not a lot.

South Florida should experience some passing showers this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow morning however as it consolidates over the Gulf most of the weather will be drawn inward and affect primarily the West Coast of Florida. Shear has increased over the Gulf however Helene will be moving in the direction of the shear which will effectively lessen it. The intensity forecast will be tricky but in general the faster it moves the better. The NHC is currently forecasting it to be a 120 mph Cat 3 at landfall. It could be more, hopefully a little less.

Wishing everyone in its path the best.

Until next time,

                                                  Matt. 

Good evening.

I am writing about Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 which is likely to become Tropical Storm Helene tomorrow. The NHC is currently forecasting it to make landfall along the Florida Panhandle late Thursday. It is currently undergoing quite a bit of shear from the SW which is displacing most of its associated weather to its NE. Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico the shear will lessen and it will likely become a hurricane. (See Wind Shear Analysis below) It is in an area of extremely warm water, see Sea Surface temps below, and rapid intensification is forecast after it enters the Gulf.

If you look at the surface map below you will see that high pressure remains over Florida. If you look at the bottom water vapor loop you will notice a frontal system over the Mississippi Valley moving eastward as well as a large upper level low over the Western Atlantic with a trailing frontal boundary moving ESE. This will allow the high pressure over Florida to shift eastward. Just where that frontal boundary is late Thursday afternoon will determine where Helene makes landfall. The slower it moves the further east it may go. Conversely a faster motion could lead to a more westerly track.

This time of year cold fronts generally do not make it into South Florida and SE Florida is at low risk from this system.

With the low shear and warm waters beneath it it has the potential of becoming a major hurricane prior to landfall. A return of shear in the Northern Gulf may potentially slow or stop intensification the last few hours before landfall. The models are currently in fairly close agreement with the current NHC track however as alway things can change. As noted above timing will be the key.

The current Wind Field forecast is included, next to bottom diagram.

Until next time,

                                     Matt.