Good afternoon.
Tropical Storm Idalia was named this morning and is currently in the NW Caribbean Sea, right along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Since this time yesterday Idalia has drifted about 70 miles to the south and is currently essentially stationary wobbling around. It is in a area of extremely weak steering forces. Light northerly surface flow is being off set by weak Coriolis forces which want to move it northward. The net effect is little motion. This is expected to persist for another 24-36 hours. After that time high pressure in the Atlantic is forecast to strengthen which should result in southerly winds aloft and a northward motion. A stationary front along the Gulf Coast should then turn it to the NE as it approaches the Northern Gulf Coast. The models are currently in good agreement on this scenario. The wild card will be its slow motion. If it stalls longer than expected conditions could change. We'll know more once it starts it northern motion. Wobbles and drifts to the east or west could have significant impacts on just where it makes landfall.
The NHC is currently forecasting it to be a strong Cat 1 at landfall, however the longer it remains over water the more time it will have to develop. There is moderate shear to its north however it is a small system. Sometimes small systems, with small eyes/centers can undergo rapid intensification with such strong updrafts and outflows that they can shield the core from the effects of the shear.
We're just going to have to see.
Until next time,
Matt.
Tropical Storm Idalia was named this morning and is currently in the NW Caribbean Sea, right along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Since this time yesterday Idalia has drifted about 70 miles to the south and is currently essentially stationary wobbling around. It is in a area of extremely weak steering forces. Light northerly surface flow is being off set by weak Coriolis forces which want to move it northward. The net effect is little motion. This is expected to persist for another 24-36 hours. After that time high pressure in the Atlantic is forecast to strengthen which should result in southerly winds aloft and a northward motion. A stationary front along the Gulf Coast should then turn it to the NE as it approaches the Northern Gulf Coast. The models are currently in good agreement on this scenario. The wild card will be its slow motion. If it stalls longer than expected conditions could change. We'll know more once it starts it northern motion. Wobbles and drifts to the east or west could have significant impacts on just where it makes landfall.
The NHC is currently forecasting it to be a strong Cat 1 at landfall, however the longer it remains over water the more time it will have to develop. There is moderate shear to its north however it is a small system. Sometimes small systems, with small eyes/centers can undergo rapid intensification with such strong updrafts and outflows that they can shield the core from the effects of the shear.
We're just going to have to see.
Until next time,
Matt.