Good morning.

There are a few systems out there, though only one poses any threat to the US. All of the current Atlantic systems should all move out to sea and miss the US. A very weak disturbance in the SW Caribbean the NHC is giving a 40% chance of development over the next 7 days. A low pressure center currently does not exist though it is over very warm water. If it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico it will encounter high shear and is unlikely to become a strong system. Its greatest threat would be to to potentially add to the historic rainfall from Helene in North Carolina. Western NC has been devastated by up to 30+ inches of rain. Whole towns have been wiped out, many are without power or phone service. Hundreds of roads are closed/washed out. Many people are stranded unable to get out to get food or water. Its unbelievable. 

Helene was a massive storm which contained an unprecedented amount of water. It traversed some extremely warm water with a broad circulation and tracked right over the Gulf Stream's Loop Current for almost its entire trip across the Gulf of Mexico capturing its enormous heat content from the hot Caribbean which contained some of the hottest water in the ocean not having had a significant storm there last year. (ie 2 years worth of heat). It was a massive vacuum cleaner that dropped the water temperatures across the Western Caribbean and much of the Gulf of Mexico by almost 10 degrees. It then converted all of that heat energy into wind energy and rain.

If you really want to be impressed look at the Sea Surface temperatures map from my 9/23/24 forecast a week ago and compare it to the Sea Surface Temperature map of today. That really sums up what happened.

Until next time,

                                                       Matt.

Good afternoon.

This is a non-weather report. Its an FYI.

The Rare Fruit Council International/ RFCI (a not for profit educational society /club of which I am the Vice President) is going to be sponsoring an event, a fruit jamboree at my farm on November 9th. We'll have farm tours, educational programs, fruit, plant and fruit tree sales, things for kids, food, a band and other vendors. It's going to be a fun event . The proceeds will be going to the RFCI.

Tickets will be limited so if you're interested I would recommend purchasing them sooner than later.

If you go to the Eventbrite.com site on the bottom of the flier and enter Redlands Jamboree you can get more information.
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Good morning. 

Helene made landfall last night around 11 pm in Florida's Big Bend over Perry Florida with 140 mph winds and an pressure of 938 mbs. It was a very large storm with a 30-40 mile wide eye and an unusually thick eye wall of over 10 miles. (Eye walls are usually only 3-5 miles wide.) The damage will be extensive.

Elsewhere there are a few systems out there which currently are not a threat to the US.

My best to all of those out there affected by this storm.

Until next time,

                                           Matt.

Good afternoon.

Hurricane Helene continues to move as forecast. Winds at 2 pm were up to 110 mph and some additional strengthening is forecast, The NHC is currently forecasting a 120 mph Cat 3 at landfall. It currently has a large eye clearly visible on radar below.. If it shrinks down it may even attain Cat 4 status. It is starting to accelerate to the NNE and should make landfall late tonight.

SE Florida has had little associated weather today.

Until next time,

                                    Matt.

Good morning.

TS Helene is currently approaching the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and should become a hurricane soon. It is becoming much better organized and at 5 am had a central pressure of 985 mbs. It usually takes a central pressure of 982-983 mbs to be a hurricane, ie it is close. It is moving NW and has slowed. This is a sign that it about to turn to the north. Systems almost always slow prior to a change in direction. If you look at the surface map below you can see the the high pressure over NW Florida has shifted eastward as anticipated in my last forecast. This should leave a clear path to the Florida Panhandle. We are unlikely to see a significant deviation from this track. It should start to accelerate northward tomorrow between the two strong high pressure systems, 1 over the Western Atlantic just east of N Florida and the other over the S Central US. If you look at the water vapor loop bottom diagram you can see the frontal boundary over the SE US very slowly moving eastward.

Helene is currently west of where it was anticipated to be at this time yesterday and as a result the NHC has shifted its track slightly to the west. There may be some further slight changes, but not a lot.

South Florida should experience some passing showers this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow morning however as it consolidates over the Gulf most of the weather will be drawn inward and affect primarily the West Coast of Florida. Shear has increased over the Gulf however Helene will be moving in the direction of the shear which will effectively lessen it. The intensity forecast will be tricky but in general the faster it moves the better. The NHC is currently forecasting it to be a 120 mph Cat 3 at landfall. It could be more, hopefully a little less.

Wishing everyone in its path the best.

Until next time,

                                                  Matt. 

Good evening.

I am writing about Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 which is likely to become Tropical Storm Helene tomorrow. The NHC is currently forecasting it to make landfall along the Florida Panhandle late Thursday. It is currently undergoing quite a bit of shear from the SW which is displacing most of its associated weather to its NE. Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico the shear will lessen and it will likely become a hurricane. (See Wind Shear Analysis below) It is in an area of extremely warm water, see Sea Surface temps below, and rapid intensification is forecast after it enters the Gulf.

If you look at the surface map below you will see that high pressure remains over Florida. If you look at the bottom water vapor loop you will notice a frontal system over the Mississippi Valley moving eastward as well as a large upper level low over the Western Atlantic with a trailing frontal boundary moving ESE. This will allow the high pressure over Florida to shift eastward. Just where that frontal boundary is late Thursday afternoon will determine where Helene makes landfall. The slower it moves the further east it may go. Conversely a faster motion could lead to a more westerly track.

This time of year cold fronts generally do not make it into South Florida and SE Florida is at low risk from this system.

With the low shear and warm waters beneath it it has the potential of becoming a major hurricane prior to landfall. A return of shear in the Northern Gulf may potentially slow or stop intensification the last few hours before landfall. The models are currently in fairly close agreement with the current NHC track however as alway things can change. As noted above timing will be the key.

The current Wind Field forecast is included, next to bottom diagram.

Until next time,

                                     Matt.

Good morning.

Another quick update. Tropical depression #6 will probably form today in the SW Gulf of Mexico. This is not unexpected, see Sea Surface Temps, bottom diagram. Nature always finds the heat.

A stalled frontal boundary across northern Florida will drift into Central Florida today which will increase rain chances across South Florida for the next several days until it drift back northward. High pressure over Florida has moved southward and is now over South Florida and the Florida Straits. This will continue to protect Florida. 

There are a couple of other waves out there however they should turn north, east of Florida.

Until next tme,

                                                         Matt.

Good morning.

Just a quick update. There are a couple of tropical waves out there but neither poses a threat to Florida. A broad trough over the Bahamas however, should move slowly west and lead to increased shower activity this Labor Day weekend.

High pressure over Florida is currently protecting the state.  We should be at low risk for anything for at least 2-3 weeks.

Until next time,

                                             Matt.
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Just a quick update.

TS Ernesto formed last night. If you look at the surface map below you can the window is open well to our east. It should turn north and move out to sea.

Until next time,

                                                 Matt.
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​Good morning.

Just a quick update. The NHC is tracking another tropical wave currently in the Central Tropical Atlantic. It is expecting it to become a tropical depression in about week. If you look at the Saharan Air Layer Analysis below you can see that it has abundant dry air to its north which will hamper development until it late in the forecast period. As it approaches the Caribbean shear will lessen as well. 

Just where it forms, if it does, will be key. If it forms and tracks north of the islands it would likely turn north over the Bahamas and miss the US. Conversely if it enters the Caribbean and tracks south of them and Cuba it could potentially threaten the West Coast of Florida. 

We're just going to have to wait and see how things evolve. Conditions in a week will likely be a little different than they are today. I'll likely post again in a few day.

Until next time,

                                                     Matt.

​P.S. Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee centered over the mouth of the Suwannee River (see 8-3-24, 5 am forecast) and is finally leaving the US.