Good morning.
With regards to TS Ian there have been a few changes. Most importantly it has been moving further west than forecast as noted yesterday evening. As a result its track will be longer and later in time. As a result it currently is not anticipated to make landfall until early Friday morning. This also affects the location of the frontal boundary which it will be drawn toward. Timing is everything and could still change. On Friday morning the stationary front is forecast to be across the Florida Panhandle, currently in the Big Bend region. A weak frontal boundary across South Florida, presently in the Ft Myers area is expected to dissipate and a new front will start approaching the area in 2 days.
See Surface Maps below.
Over the last 6 hours Ian has started to move WNW and should turn NW in response to the approaching front across the SE US. Wind shear is quite high over North Florida and the Northern Gulf of Mexico and though Ian is anticipated to become a Cat 3 or 4 Hurricane in the Southern Gulf of Mexico it is anticipated to weaken prior to landfall and is currently forecast to come ashore as a 90 mph Cat 1 storm. Intensity forecasts are difficult and less predictable however the further north it goes the likely weaker it should get. See Wind Shear Analysis below.
Until next time,
Matt.
With regards to TS Ian there have been a few changes. Most importantly it has been moving further west than forecast as noted yesterday evening. As a result its track will be longer and later in time. As a result it currently is not anticipated to make landfall until early Friday morning. This also affects the location of the frontal boundary which it will be drawn toward. Timing is everything and could still change. On Friday morning the stationary front is forecast to be across the Florida Panhandle, currently in the Big Bend region. A weak frontal boundary across South Florida, presently in the Ft Myers area is expected to dissipate and a new front will start approaching the area in 2 days.
See Surface Maps below.
Over the last 6 hours Ian has started to move WNW and should turn NW in response to the approaching front across the SE US. Wind shear is quite high over North Florida and the Northern Gulf of Mexico and though Ian is anticipated to become a Cat 3 or 4 Hurricane in the Southern Gulf of Mexico it is anticipated to weaken prior to landfall and is currently forecast to come ashore as a 90 mph Cat 1 storm. Intensity forecasts are difficult and less predictable however the further north it goes the likely weaker it should get. See Wind Shear Analysis below.
Until next time,
Matt.