Good morning just a quick update.

The NHC is following a weak area of low pressure along the Yucatan Peninsula, Invest 93. It is giving it a 70% chance of tropical development over the next 2 days, 90% over the next 7 days. Steering forces are weak though the current models are in agreement in it moving towards the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend area. There is plenty of warm water in front of it though there is significant wind shear in front of it which should slow development. High pressure over the central and south central US has weakened as has the high pressure over the Atlantic. It should move slowly and a more westerly track is possible. We'll need to keep an eye on it however it currently does NOT pose a threat to South Florida. We may see enhanced rainfall associated with it on Monday and Tuesday.

We'll start to get a better feel for where it may go after it actually forms, if it does, though it is likely.

Until next time, 

                                       Matt.
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Good evening.

Just a quick note. As you can see below the tropics are starting to become active however none of the current systems pose a threat to Florida. Only one should affect the US, TD 9 which is expected to make landfall along the southern Texas coast as a weak, 45 mph, tropical storm bringing much needed rainfall. Flooding will be the main issue.

If you look at the Saharan Air layer Analysis below you can see that the previously extensive area of Saharan dust over the Tropical Atlantic is being eroded. This should allow more systems to start to develop.

If you look at the surface map, bottom diagram, you will notice a couple of changes. First is that strong high pressure is now covering much of the US and is currently protecting Florida, the Carolinas and the rest fo the US east Coast. Second notice that it has moved eastward, beyond the Appalachians. This is a sign that things are starting to change. As a result Florida is currently under the influence of fairly strong northeast and easterly winds. A weak pressure pattern is present over the Western Atlantic, this will allow systems coming off of Africa to move north and east into the open ocean, away from the US.

Note the storms out there at present are good, they all help to dissipate the built up heat in the ocean. In fact the more the better, as long as we have this protective high over us. Once that changes we may feel otherwise.

Until next time,
    
                                             Matt.

Good morning.

All is quiet on the Eastern Front.

I am writing to explain the unusual weather which we have been having so far this summer. There are two major drivers of our weather pattern this summer. First is an El Nino, with above average water temperatures in the eastern Pacific since early March. El Ninos usually last 6-18 month, average 12, and the  NHC is giving the current one a 90% chance of persisting through this coming winter. It may even persist into next summer. El Nino's are associated with increased shear across the Caribbean which we have been seeing this summer, though currently the shear has subsided some. The other main driver are the extensive fires in Canada. This has changed the weather pattern over Florida. Normally from early-mid July through August a strong Bermuda High tends to prevail with a predominant easterly wind flow. For the past 6+ weeks the Bermuda High has been displaced eastward by high pressure over the south central and south western US and the Gulf of Mexico due to this hot dry airmass. It has been blocked by the Appalachians from moving eastward. If you look at the surface map below, we have been roughly in the same pattern all summer, you can see that we have a light NW flow aloft coming down straight from Canada. This has been pumping this warm air towards us with little flow from over the cooling waters. Sea breezes along the coasts of course still occur which has been producing our showers thankfully.

Fortunately things always change. As fall approaches we should start to see cold fronts returning, ? late August/September. When that occurs we should get back to more normal weather patterns. Currently high pressure and dry air over the Gulf of Mexico have shut it down with regards to tropical development, however if you look at the sea surface temperature chart below, you can see that we have very hot water in the Gulf. I anticipate that once the dry air is displaced by frontal systems in the fall we will see at least 1-2 storms there late in the season, ? late September/October/November?

You will also notice high Heat Content (water temperatures to depth, 200') in the Caribbean. After the El Nino ends, that will be picked up by something too.

Wishing a good summer to all.

Until next time,

                                              Matt.

Good evening.

After a couple of challenging weeks I finally have my site back up. 

I am currently writing about a system in the South Central Tropical Atlantic which the NHC has designated AL 95. The NHC is giving a 60% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days and expects it to enter the Caribbean. Conditions there are not ideal with abundant dry air currently, see SAL diagram. I'll be watching it but am not overly concerned at present.

Matt.

PS. We have been experiencing unprecedented, scary hot temperatures in South Florida as well as other parts of the US the past 2-3 weeks. In fact last Thursday morning at 06:30 it was 87 degrees, something I've never seen before, 82 had been the highest. I believe this is largely due to the extensive fires in Canada (over 25 million acres) with a prolonged NW flow which is pumping a huge amount of particulate matter and CO2 into the atmosphere enhancing the greenhouse effect. Hopefully the effects will be temporary. A rain event is needed up there to stop the fires.
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I'm back !!!

I had written a great post 3 d ago stating that TD # 2, which became Bret, despite the NHC's initial track, was not going to affect South Florida, however my website went down and I've been in repeated contact with IT at BlueHost the past 3 days trying to get it back up. Fortunately they just fixed the problem.

Currently Bret and Cindy are out there and neither should pose a threat to Florida or the US. Bret is going to pass just north of Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela tomorrow and should enhance the Catatumbo Lightning Phenomenon, (the worlds largest ozone generator).

Elsewhere all is quiet. High pressure over and just to the east of Florida continues to protect the state.

Until next time,
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                                                Matt.

Preseason Tropical Update 4/15/23

Good morning.

2022 started slow but ended with 2 Hurricanes hitting Florida. Ian to the Ft Myers area on 9/28 as a strong Cat 4 and H. Nicole to the east central coast as a minimal Cat 1 on 11/10.

In 2022 the Tropical Atlantic was in a weak La Nina, usually associated with increased tropical activity. Currently we have neutral El Nino conditions, however over the past month sea surface temperatures have been steadily warming along the western Pacific Coast of South America. NOAA is currently forecasting El Nino conditions to develop between May and July (62% chance) with a 40% chance of a strong El Nino and 10% chance of no El Nino. El Ninos are usually associated with below average tropical activity due to increased shear across the Caribbean and Western Tropical Atlantic. 

Colorado State University released their forecast on Thursday for the 2023 Hurricane Season. Their forecast is for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. (Which is for around average season activity.)

One of the main drivers this season is going to be the oncoming El Nino, which should quell the number of storms some, as compared to if we had a season with either neutral ENSO conditions or La Nina conditions. That said, it was noted in the forecast that the eastern and central Tropical Atlantic and the sub-tropical Atlantic is much warmer than average. This warmth could offset the negative effects of the El Nino conditions and thus we could still see a fairly active hurricane season in the Atlantic, despite the oncoming El Nino conditions.


This season the areas at greatest risk appear to be the Carolinas, the Central Gulf Coast, The Bahamas and the East Coast of Florida.


2022 unlike 2021 saw above average rainfall due to 3 rain events. Rainfall at my house totaled 73.68 inches above my 33 year running average of 67.00 inches.

Remember the absolute number of storms is not what is important, it's where they go. If there are 30 and they all go out to sea it would be a good year. Conversely if there is one and it hits you, it's not. Predicting where exactly they will go is not predictable at this time. It all comes down to the conditions that exist at the time they form.

Hoping for a quiet 2023 Tropical Season,

Matt.

Good morning.

TS Nicole has changed little since yesterday. If you look at the Water Vapor Loop (WVL) and the Surface Map below you will notice a few things. First it has moved a little south of where it was forecast to be at this time yesterday. Next the upper level low that it was embedded in has now moved to the south and Nicole is now moving along it's northern periphery. Next on the WVL notice there is not a lot of green (convection) associated with it at present, mostly just white which is water vapor. The latest convection, near the center now appears to be moving to the west. There is not a lot of weather to the south of the center. On its current track it should make landfall in the Jupiter area with greatest wind and surge from Jupiter to Melbourne. Tropical storms conditions will be likely along the Florida East Coast from Palm Beach County northward. Peak winds are forecast to be in the 70-75 mph range, (Jupiter to Melbourne) with 40-60 mph elsewhere. Miami-Dade County should see winds in the 20s with passing showers. Areas north of the center could see a fair amount of rainfall. Its tropical storm wind field should arrive around 5 pm this evening for areas closest to its path with landfall anticipated around 1 am tomorrow morning.

Dry air and shear have continued to hamper Nicole and the NHC is not forecasting much if any further strengthening.

Best wishes to those in its path, though this should not be an extreme event like Ian.

Until next time,
                                                    Matt.

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Good morning.

At 1 am Sub-Tropical Storm Nicole was located at 27.3 N and 71.2 W. Nicole remains embedded in a broad upper level low. (ULL). ULLs are the nemesis of tropical systems as they rotate counter clockwise in the upper levels, the opposite of tropical system. This has hampered development so far, however the NHC is now forecasting the ULL to decay tomorrow and for Nicole to move away from it. This would allow Nicole to transition into a tropical system with more convection near its center as opposed to well removed from its center as we saw yesterday and currently. (Typical of non-tropical lows). If this occurs it would allow Nicole to strengthen.

​ If you look at the Water Vapor Loop below you will notice, for the first time with Nicole, a burst of convection near its center. Shear is forecast to decrease tomorrow and the NHC is currently forecasting Nicole to approach the East Coast of Central Florida as a 65-75 mph tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane. If it does transition into a tropical system more wind and rain would be expected, if it doesn't most of its weather could remain offshore, however given this new development, tropical transition is more likely.

Until next time,
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                                            Matt.

At 5 am the NHC named Subtropical Storm Nicole.
See NHC forecast track below. Due to the unfavorable conditions previously discussed they are anticipating that it will remain a tropical storm. This will not be an Ian. It should primarily be a rain event for areas that get EAST of the center which may be limited. We'll know more as it develops.

             Matt.
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