Good afternoon.

Just a quick update.

Hurricane Beryl has been undergoing rapid intensification the past day and a half and as of 2 PM attained Cat 4 status. After entering the Caribbean it should encounter shear and is expected to decrease back to a Cat 3 Tuesday and be a Cat 2 at landfall along Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. 

High pressure remains in control over the Western Atlantic, Florida and the Northern Gulf of Mexico.
The bottom line. Beryl is going to Mexico. Beryl is very far south. If it was further north a possible track into the Bahamas would be possible, however it is not. My current track is a little south of the current NHC track and brings Beryl into Northern Belize and from there into mainland Mexico.

Late in the forecast period we will need to see if high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico moves eastward which could shift the track closer to southern Texas, however that is not currently expected. 

Until next time,

                                                 Matt.
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Good afternoon.

Just quick update. The NHC is currently following 2 tropical waves, one in the Caribbean and one in the Tropical Atlantic. Neither poses a threat to Florida at this time. High pressure over the Western Atlantic, The Bahamas and South Florida is currently protecting the state.

I'll let you know if things should change but our risk is low.

                             Matt.

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Good morning.

2023 turned out to be an average Hurricane season, though overall active in total number of storms with 20 storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. On average there are 12 storms, 7 hurricanes and 2 - 3 major hurricanes.
Fortunately most went out to sea. See 2023 tracks below.

The 2024 season is shaping up to be a potentially very active season with an increased risk for major hurricanes. Our current El Nino, which has led to a cooler wetter winter, is rapidly fading and it now appears likely that we will have La Nina conditions by late July. La Ninas are characterized by below average water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific and reduced shear across the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic and a resultant increase in tropical activity.
Water temperatures currently are above average across the Eastern Atlantic and the Tropical Atlantic as well as the extreme Western Caribbean. This should translate into an active Cape Verde season with more long track storms and potentially more major hurricanes. The Colorado State University is currently forecasting 23 storms with 15 hurricanes and 5 major.

The areas at greatest risk this year appear to be the NE Caribbean, Cuba, the Bahamas, Florida (particularly South Florida), the Yucatan Peninsula and the Central Gulf of Mexico.
(See analog Hotspots diagram with location of storms in past from years with similar conditions.)

Rainfall at my house in 2023 totaled 75.86", above my 34 yr running average of 67.26 ".

Notes hurricanes are still low probability events and even if we have an increased risk this year it is still unlikely that we will get one, however we need to be prepared. 

On average our risk of seeing hurricane conditions any given year is around 14%. Also, it's not the number of storms that counts, it's where they go. If we have 25 and they all go out to sea it would be a great year. Saying that note, the Bermuda high is forecast to be strong this year which could lead to more landfalling storms.

Wishing everyone a great and safe 2024,

                                   Matt.


 
2024 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names:
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

It was a soaker !

Rainfall totals in general have ranged from 6-18" (Homestead).
The total at my house was 10.55" most falling between 4 pm yesterday and 1 am this morning.
We should dry out from here.

​                                                       Matt.

Good morning.

We are going to have a rain event today. Deep tropical moisture overriding a warm front just north of South Florida combined with a developing non-tropical low just east of S. Florida will lead to a rain event today. Rainfall is currently forecast to range from 4-12 inches, highest in areas of training of the storms. Most will occur this afternoon and tonight. The low is forecast to start moving away from S FL tomorrow morning which should pull the moisture away from us.

​If you look at the Wind Shear Analysis below you can see that extremely high shear over Florida and the Caribbean should prevent any significant tropical development.

Until next time,
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                                             Matt.

Good evening.

Just a quick note. There a couple of systems out there, though neither appears to present a risk to the US at this time. If you look at the Surface Map below you can see strong high pressure over Cuba and Florida, this should shield Florida and the US for a while. 

If you look at the Wind Shear Analysis below, everything in red is hostile to development, you can see that the Caribbean remains a nemesis for storms this year. Due to this TS Sean is anticipated to dissipate within 3 days. The one behind it will probably experience a similar fate.

Until next time, 

                                  Matt.
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Good afternoon.

All remains quiet on the western front.

Weak high pressure remains over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida and a weak NW flow continues over Florida. The Caribbean and the Western Gulf of Mexico contain unusually warm water however due to our current strong El Nino nothing has been able to reach those areas. As cold fronts move into the Gulf with fall we may see a low spin up out there late in the season. The NW Caribbean will also be an area to watch however I wouldn't be surprised if nothing happens there until the El Nino ends next year.

If you look at the bottom diagram below, a summary of the storms and their tracks so far this season, you will notice a decided absence of systems in the Caribbean.

Until next time,

                                                Matt.
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Good morning.

Just a quick note. Florida remains in the clear.

High pressure remains over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida and a northwest flow continues over the state. 

The NC Outer Banks will get a tropical or non-tropical storm today and tomorrow. The system in the eastern Atlantic is forecast to move out to sea missing Bermuda and the US. Nothing else is out there.

We should see another 1-2 weeks of low risk.

Until next time,
                                              Matt.
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Good evening.

Just a quick update on Lee. I have already received several calls and texts due to our hysterical media. It is extremely unlikely that Lee will affect South Florida or other parts of the state as well. 

If you look at the surface map below you can see that high pressure remains over Florida, however its center has shifted westward and it is no longer directly over Florida. You will also notice extreme weakness (large distance between the isobars north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) in the pressure pattern over the Western Atlantic. This will allow Lee to move northward when it gets north of the islands. There are currently north and NW winds over Florida which would prevent it from approaching the state if it were in our vicinity now, we'll have to see what they are when it gets closer however this type of pattern has persisted all summer and it is unlikely to be significantly different in a few days. 

If you look at the models below you can see that they also agree in this scenario with all of them taking Lee north, probably missing the US entirely.

​The one thing that could throw things off would be if it were to stall. As long as it keeps moving we should be okay.

Please don't let the TV and other medias psyche you out. We will probably be in a low risk pattern for the next couple of weeks.

Until next time,

                                            Matt. 
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Good morning.

There are a few systems currently in the Atlantic though none pose a threat to to he US at this time.
If you look at the surface map below you can see that high pressure has moved over the SE US and Florida. This should shield Florida and the US East Coast. It is forecast to remain roughly in place for the next week. In fact the only areas in the Continental US currently potentially vulnerable are Louisiana and Texas, and there is nothing out there threatening them.

If you look at the bottom diagram, Sea Surface Temperatures, you can once again see that the area to watch remains the Gulf of Mexico. We will likely see at least one more system there later in the season.

The climatological peak of hurricane season is September 10th with a second small peak in early October.

We should have a breather for a week, ? +,  until things change.

Until next time,

​                                        Matt.
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