Good morning.

Marco has dissipated and TS Laura is currently moving through the Yucatan Channel. The current NHC track brings it to the Louisiana/Texas border early Thursday morning as a 115 mph Cat 3 hurricane. If you look at the bottom diagram, water vapor loop, you can see a large upper level low just north of the Windward Passage moving west. This has been the main feature which has pushed Laura more south and west than had been forecast and I believe it will continue to influence its track. In light of this my current track is west of the NHC's bringing Laura ashore between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass Texas. Everyone in this area should prepare for major hurricane conditions. There is one significant variable in play regarding intensity. If you look at the water vapor loop of the Gulf of Mexico you will see strong upper level SW winds along the Texas coast, this is shear and could potentially weaken Laura just prior to landfall. We'll have to see.

​Elsewhere all is quiet.

Until next time,

                                                         Matt.

Good morning.

Today is the 28th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew which made landfall across  Miami-Dade County on 8-24-92. A day most of us will never forget.

​If you look at the water vapor loop below you can see both TS Laura and TS Marco. Laura is now south of Cuba and is experiencing shear out of the north. In light of this South Florida will see very little rain today. It will be due south of Miami at around 11 am today and at its closest approach. Marco is experiencing shear out of the SW and has very little weather near its center. In light of this it is forecast to remain a tropical storm.

See NHC forecast tracks below. The real risk for the northern Gulf Coast is Laura which is forecast to cross over both the Gulf Stream and the Gulf Loop Current with very warm water. Though the current forecast advisory is for peak winds to 95 mph there is the possibility of it becoming a major hurricane. What happens tomorrow and Wednesday will be the key.

Until next time,                             Matt.

Good morning,

See charts below - it looks like Louisiana will be receiving unprecedented back-to-back hurricanes early this week. Marco is forecast to come in as a Cat 1 and Laura as a Cat 1 or 2, but we will have to see regarding intensity.

All that I anticipate for South Florida is a breezy day tomorrow with passing showers.

Until next time,
​Matt

Good morning.

Yesterday afternoon hurricane hunters relocated Laura's eye around 100 miles south of where they had previously thought it was. (See yesterday's forecast about TD# 13 being uncoupled and weak storms being tricky.) This changed everything because as opposed to being in the Atlantic Laura is in the Caribbean. See water vapor loop below. It has moved almost due west over the past 24 hours and is well south of yesterday's forecast track. The current NHC track has it crossing the spines of the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. This will lead to Laura remaining weak until it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico.  It is currently forecast to hit Louisiana as a Cat 1 hurricane. Laura remains weak with multiple vortices moving around its current center and one of the concerns is that we may see new eyes reform after it crosses over the islands which could again change its track. (Like what happened with Isaias.)

On its present track I do not anticipate storm or hurricane conditions in the state of Florida.

Elsewhere all else is quiet. The wave off of Africa, currently in the region of the Cape Verde Islands, is probably already too far north to pose a threat to the US. I'll be watching it but my concern is much less at this time.

Have a good weekend !

Until next time,       
                                      
                                                   Matt.

Good morning. 

Over the past couple of days there have been some interesting developments, though both systems are still very poorly organized. Neither currently appear to pose a significant risk to South Florida.

If you look at the water vapor loop, bottom diagram you will see an upper level low centered along the northern Gulf Coast near the Louisiana - Mississippi border. This is associated with a stationary front along the northern Gulf. ( see surface map of Gulf of Mexico below.) This will be the main factor steering both of these systems. One will come in on its back side the other just on its front side. The wild card which is totally unpredictable at this time is the interaction which will occur between the two systems as they start to approach each other and the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. See Fujiwhara Effect in Weather Trivia Section of this Blog.

Of the two only TD #13 should have an affect on Florida. It is currently tracking south and west of NHC's projected path from yesterday and the NHC has adjusted their track accordingly. The model consensus brings it through the lower Florida Keys then toward the Florida - Alabama border near where the stationary front nips the Panhandle. If this track holds it would pass around 100-120 miles SW of the Miami area. Its weak tropical storm force wind field to the NE at that time is projected to extend 110 miles, therefore the southern parts of Miami-Dade County may experience winds in the 30-40 mph range in squalls and 2-4" of rainfall.

Its still too early to make an accurate prediction. TD #13 is currently uncoupled with a mid level center several hundred miles SE of the low level center. As we saw with Isaias weak systems can be tricky.

Frankly the one I'm concerned with is the one just off the coast of Africa now, but its way too early to say anything about it.

I'll write again tomorrow,  

                                                              Matt.
​

Good morning.

I'm writing about 2 areas of disturbed weather that we'll need to watch though neither appears to present a significant threat to South Florida at this time. Both are very far south in the central and eastern Atlantic, see 2 day outlook below, one just north and one just south of 10 degrees latitude.
If you look at the surface map below you will see that the western one will tend to be steered toward Central America and the Yucatan, after which it should slow down and then turn north toward the Florida Panhandle or the west coast of Florida. The eastern one should approach the NE Caribbean and then turn NW, then N and NE just to the east or over the Central and Northern Bahamas.
Fortunately neither is well organized and there is a lot of shear between them and Florida or the Bahamas and they may not even form or dissipate. However if they should make it to the Gulf of Mexico or the Bahamas shear will lessen in those areas and development could occur. We'll have to see.

A moist light S to SW flow over Florida this week should lead to enhanced shower activity along the Florida east coast.

Until next time,      

                                                 Matt.

Good morning.

Just a quick update. Currently things are quiet however there are two areas which we'll need to watch. The first is in the east-central Atlantic at around 9 degrees latitude. The second is a strong tropical wave over Africa at around 12.5 degrees. See satellite image of the Atlantic and infra red image of Africa and the Eastern Atlantic below. The first is fair far south and would have a low probability of making it to South Florida. The second is in the window that we need to watch  (10-12 degrees). It should come off the coast in about 3 days. I'll be watching it. After those two there is nothing else in the pipeline over Africa for at least another week.

Until next time, 

                                           Matt.
​

Good morning.

TS Isaias is currently located east of Jacksonville. See 5 day NHC forecast and water vapor loop below. Fortunately Isaias did not make a Florida landfall and remained offshore as expected. In addition due to strong SW shear most of its weather remained offshore. Peak winds yesterday in Miami were 17 mph with gust to 25. West Palm Beach had a peak wind of 31 mph with a gust to 43. Melbourne when it was at closest approach had winds of 20 mph with a gust of 32. Florida only experienced weak tropical storm conditions.

Rainfall at my house over the weekend totaled 1.68", within my expected 1-2" forecast range.

Elsewhere all else is quiet. A weak disturbance in the Atlantic will move out to sea, even if it should develop. There are a couple of strong waves over Africa which we'll need to watch in a week or two.

Until next time,                  Matt.
​

PS. Hopefully if you were following you were not part of the panicked crowds out there.

Good evening,

​ At 5 PM Tropical Storm Isaias was located east of Melbourne. See radar image below. Isaias has been moving just slightly west of due north all day and has remained offshore, and due to strong south west shear almost all of its associated weather has remained well offshore sparing Florida from most of its weather.

Until next time,

​Matt. 

Good morning. 

At 4:30 AM tropical storm Isaias was located just east of Boca Raton Florida. Isaias has become uncoupled. Even though the center may pass over or near the coast all the weather is displaced, due to shear, north east of the center with the main area of convection just south of Grand Bahama island. 
Areas from Jupiter and north should prepare for tropical storm conditions however if it remains uncoupled Florida  may not receive much significant weather.

I’ll post again this afternoon,

Matt.