Good morning.

The Western Caribbean Sea remains the area to watch. TS Gamma is currently just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and is totally uncoupled and undergoing significant southerly shear with all of its weather displaced to the north and east of the center. (See water vapor loop below.) It is forecast to meander SW and then eastward as TD # 26, soon to become TS Delta approaches. It should eventually dissipate as its weather and circulation is drawn into TS or Hurricane Delta as it passes through the Yucatan Channel.

TD#26 is forecast to become TS Delta soon and the NHC is currently forecasting it to make landfall along the Louisiana coast as a Cat 2 hurricane. Due to the abundant shear in the northern Gulf of Mexico I'm not sure that that will happen. If you look at the surface map below you will see a wide window between the Louisiana coast and the Big Bend area of Florida. With the high amount of shear a track to the east of Louisiana appears to be more likely; and a weaker storm, but it is still way too early to make a prediction and just how much interaction that occurs between Gamma and Delta could have a significant impact on where Delta goes. They will come quite close to one another. 

South Florida should be okay.

Until next time,               
​                                                                       Matt.

Good morning.

Things are starting to heat up again in the Tropics and as forecast the Western Caribbean Sea is the area to watch. There are 2 systems of note at present.

The first in the southwestern Caribbean is likely to become a tropical depression later today and make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula before turning SW into the Bay of Campeche and dissipating. 

The second area is the one which we'll need to watch. If you look at the water vapor loop below you can see a cold front barely moving along the Big Bend area of Florida, with high SW shear aloft. The first system is too far south to feel it affects. If the system in the Eastern Caribbean gets far enough north by the time it enters the Western Caribbean it could be turned N and NE toward that front. The NHC is currently only giving it a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. It currently has no organization in looking at the water vapor loop. If it should develop and get into the NW Caribbean a track toward the West Coast of Florida could happen with the current areas of greatest risk being between Ft Myers and Tampa.

Wind shear is extremely strong over Florida at present and unless it moves very rapidly NE it is unlikely to be a strong system. There is however a lot of hot water in the NW Caribbean.

If you look at the IR image of Africa below you will notice the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over Africa with 4 systems lined up, notice that they are all below 10 degrees latitude. Tropical cyclones don't develop within 8 degrees of the equator due to the absence of spin. The Cape Verde season is almost over. It ends when the I T C Z moves south of 8 degrees latitude.

I'll continue to watch as things develop, or not.

Until next time,

                                                                Matt.

Good morning.

So far so good.

Teddy is heading north and should pass east of Bermuda. It is forecast to become an extra-tropical storm on Wednesday.

Beta, a slow moving very small storm could become a rain maker along the Texas and Louisiana coasts this week. It has already sucked quite a bit of heat out of the Western Gulf of Mexico.

If you look at the surface map below you will see that high pressure remains over Florida, protecting the state.

Until next time,

                                                             Matt.

Good morning.

The tropics remain active this morning. Sally made landfall on Wednesday morning as a Cat 2 near Gulf Shores Alabama, between Mobile Bay and the Florida/Alabama state line.

Teddy currently a Cat 4 is heading toward Bermuda and Nova Scotia. It should pass east of Bermuda but could be close. Its too soon to say about Nova Scotia.

The orange X below should become TD #23 soon and should follow in Teddy's wake, out to sea. If you look at the surface map below a prominent window remains between the high pressure just east of Florida and the one in the Central Atlantic. If this persists it should continue to protect the southern 1/2  and east coast of the state of Florida.

If you look at the Infra Red image of Africa below you will see little activity over the continent. The Cape Verde season is almost over. After the current batch we will probably not see many. The Cape Verde season usually ends around the beginning of October.

If you look at Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Heat Content (influenced by water temps and the depth of the warm water) diagrams below you can see that the next areas to watch will be the Western Gulf of Mexico, where TD #22 is now, and the Western Caribbean. Their season usually starts early October to early November.

Until next time,
 
                                                                   Matt.

​

Good morning.

The tropics are active this morning, though Florida remains at low risk.

Sally formed on Saturday, AFTER crossing South Florida giving us a rainy Saturday as forecast. It is currently forecast to make landfall in Mississippi tomorrow PM as a Cat 1 hurricane.

The NHC has changed its forecast on Teddy, formerly TD# 20, and it is now forecast to follow in the wake Paulette and Rene and move out to sea. I wrote about that on Friday.

TD# 21 is too far north and is forecast to dissipate, as is Rene. 

Paulette, a Cat 1 hurricane, is in the region of Bermuda and is moving out to sea.

We'll need to watch the tropical wave just off the coast of Africa, however if you look at the surface map below, bottom diagram, you'll see a broad window between the Bermuda High and high pressure over the Central US which would tend to steer anything that enters the Caribbean or SW Atlantic out to sea, likely east of the Bahamas.

So far so good. A strong wave over Central Africa should emerge off the coast in 4-5 days. I'll be watching.

Until next time,                                    Matt.

​PS. Don't be intimidated by all these storms out there. Its actually good as each one diminishes the heat content of the ocean a little bit. Some more than others.

Good morning.

We are currently at the peak of Hurricane Season and things in the tropics are heating up though Florida still looks okay. A tropical wave currently over the Bahamas will move over South Florida tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow should be a rainy day with frequent showers. It has potential for development AFTER it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Paulette and Rene are moving out to sea. The one that we'll need to watch is the area just off the coast of Africa. If it stay far enough south it may miss the Mid Atlantic Trough and enter the Caribbean or Florida Straits. The high pressure that was over Florida last week has shifted north and the current "windows" are open through the Caribbean and Florida Straits. See surface map below. 
Hopefully it will be drawn north into the wake of Paulette and Rene and move out to sea, but we'll have to see.

Until next time,                           Matt.

​

Good morning.

See below. We're still OK.
​High pressure over Florida is currently protecting the state.

Matt.

Good morning.

Just a quick update. There are several systems out there though none currently pose a threat to Florida. High pressure just north of the Yucatan Channel should protect the state. The system in the Caribbean should be steered toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Those in the Atlantic should move east of Florida, possibly affecting the Bahamas though likely missing them as well.

I'll be watching and let you know as things develop, or not.

Until next time,               Matt.

Good morning.

Laura made landfall early yesterday morning as a strong Cat 4 with 150 mph winds and a barometric pressure of 937 mbs, just east of the Texas - Louisiana state line in the region of Cameron, LA. Our thoughts are with those who live in that area, having been through that ourselves.

Elsewhere in the tropical there are a couple of weak systems what I'm watching though none currently pose a threat to Florida. High pressure over the Central Bahamas just east of South Florida should protect most of the state except the Panhandle, see surface map below. Dry air over the western tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean should help us as well.

The main area of concern is Africa where you can see on Infra Red image an active pipeline of storms moving across tropical Africa. These will become the ones to watch over the next 1 - 2 weeks as we approach the peak of hurricane season.

Until next time,                 Matt.

Good morning.

Hurricane Laura is currently spinning in the central Gulf of Mexico. The NHC is currently forecasting it to become a 130 mph Cat 4 hurricane later today and to make land fall as a 120 mph Cat 3 at around 1 am tonight. The NHC has not changed its track, nor have I. My forecast from yesterday still holds. The upper level low which I talked about yesterday is now south of Cuba, and contributing to its NW motion.

Galveston is currently under a mandatory evacuation. If you'd like to read an amazing story about the deadliest hurricane in US history, read "Isaac's Storm", a true story about the meteorologist in Galveston in 1900, who forecast the coming hurricane with only rudimentary information at the time and his description of the devastation that followed that 150 mph hurricane. Storms were not named at that time, it is known as the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. It came ashore on September 8th, 1900.

Until next time,
                                                             Matt.

​