Good morning.

Overnight Isaias has moved WNW and is currently near the island of Great Inagua. Isaias is stronger than the NHC had originally forecast because the new eye that formed north of Hispaniola didn't have to cross the island, so it wasn't disrupted. The original one got wiped out. Additional strengthening is forecast today however once it gets east of the Florida peninsula shear is forecast to increase and gradual weakening is anticipated. The stronger it gets the further east it will tend to go.
If you look at the surface map below you will see the isobar that it is on cross over the center of Grand Bahama Island. This is the track that it is currently on and my track is unchanged from yesterday. The NHC's track is now in close agreement. After 48 hours there is wide disparity in the models with a spread of over 700 miles. If you look at the water vapor loop below you will see a frontal boundary across the Mississippi Valley pushing eastward. (preceded by a blue line). The timing of this will be the key as to whether any of the US gets any significant weather. Hopefully it will continue to push east and steer Isaias out to sea. There is probably about a 60% chance of that happening, but we'll have to see. This feature will cause the storm to move N and eventually NE after it enters the Bahamas.

The current wind field to the NW, our side of the storm, is hurricane force winds 30 miles, strong storm force winds 80 miles and weak storm force winds 150 miles. Due to the forecast strengthening it is forecast to tighten up and when it is at closest approach tomorrow afternoon the wind field is forecast to be, hurricane force 20 miles, strong storm force 40 miles and weak storm force winds 80 miles. On its present track it is forecast to pass 140 east of the Miami area. Therefore winds should be in the 20s with gusts to the 30s, possibly 40 in a squall. I wouldn't anticipate much rainfall in the Miami area, possibly more towards the central and northern parts of the state.

I currently do not anticipate hurricane conditions for the state of Florida.

I'll write again tomorrow,

​                                                          Matt.

 Good afternoon.

An interesting phenomenon appears to have occurred with Isaias. Due to its interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola a new center appears to have formed along the northern coast of Hispaniola. You can see it if you look closely at the current satellite loop below. Local radar shows the prior center along the SE coast of Hispaniola, it will probably dissipate in the mountains. The result of this is that Isaias has taken a jog to the NW which should result in a slightly more easterly track. If you look at the surface map below you can see a gap in the high pressure ridges to its north centered around Grand Bahama, this is currently the area of greatest risk. 

My current track is a little east of the NHC's centered over Grand Bahama.

Due to SW shear over Florida, the Florida Straits and the northern Caribbean most of its weather is NE of the center. If the current track hold South Florida could expect winds in the 20s with gusts into the 40s with a few passing squalls. I would not anticipate much rainfall, ?1-2 inches or less??

I'll write again tomorrow however the overall risk to Florida currently appears fairly low. 

​                                             Matt.

Good morning,

At 11 PM last night the National Hurricane Center finally felt they had found a center of circulation and tropical storm Isaias was named. Coordinates at that time were 15.8 N and 67.0 W. Looking  at the coordinates from yesterday it was an exercise in futility with the NHC struggling to try to find a center of circulation. First it appeared to move strongly to the west, then back to the east, then down to the south and finally again back towards the north. It illustrated the difficulty in making a forecast on a system that does not exist. If the 11 PM, 2 AM, and 5 AM coordinates are accurate it appears that the storm may now be moving to the NW. Also of note is even though most of the convection has been in the Caribbean, most of its winds have been displaced well to the north east in the Atlantic. In light of this after it crosses Hispaniola we may see the remnants drawn further north and east. The current models are reflecting this possibility and now project it moving closer to the East Coast to Florida. If this occurred it would be good because, due to strong southwest shear, most of the weather is located well north east of the center and would therefore remain offshore. As it is almost impossible to determine what exactly its course was yesterday I am going to wait until this afternoon or evening before I write my forecast to see what actual motion it is taking.

Until then,
Matt

 Good morning.

At 5 am the approximated center of Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 was located in the region of Dominica. A defined center of circulation still does not exist. Yesterday there were two areas of spin, one to the SW and one to the NE along the elongated trough of low pressure. Yesterday afternoon the NE one appeared as if it would dominate, and highest winds are in that region; however overnight deep convection over the SW center is now prevailing and it looks like this will become the center of circulation and this is the area that the NHC is now focusing on. Note until a defined center exists the forecasts have a high degree of uncertainty. If the NE one should reestablish a track east of the Bahamas could occur, however this appears unlikely now.
If you look at the Water Vapor Loop below you will notice that most of the convection has moved into the Caribbean and is SW of where the NHC track currently lies. Note my first forecast on this system, when the models were taking it towards Bermuda, I stated that Florida should be ok UNLESS it got into the Caribbean south of us. This appears to be occurring. High pressure remains over South Florida and for now doesn't appear to be moving. In light of this and its apparent more southerly track my current track, which is south and west of the NHC's takes it over Hispaniola, into Cuba then into the west coast of Florida with the area between Tampa and Cedar Key being at greatest risk. Fortunately there is a lot of shear, dry air and land between it and Florida and it is likely to be only a tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane. Again it is still too early to say and the forecast is likely to continue to change. Hopefully it will be significantly disrupted.

I'll write again tomorrow, sooner if significant changes should occur. 

​                                        Matt.
​

Good afternoon.

At 11 am the NHC pronounced Potential Tropical Cyclone #9. It will likely become TS Isaias tomorrow. Winds are estimated at 40 mph however a defined center of circulation does not exist, thus the "Potential". An elongated area of low pressure was found instead. In light of this there is great amount of uncertainty in the forecast as the center could form distant to where they are projecting now. If you look at the surface map below you can see high pressure centered over South Florida. If you look at yesterdays surface map you will note that it was east of that, in other words, it is dynamic and unlikely to be in the same place in a few days. They tend to wobble back and forth, east and west in the Atlantic. Also note the dry air in front of the system.
The NHC's current track is through South Florida, however the average error in their forecasts at 5 days is 200 miles, and with this system as we do not know where the center will be when it forms, even greater. In other words it is unlikely to go on their present track. A track to our east is more likely, though I wouldn't want to make any prediction at this time with out knowing where it will be located if and when it forms.

I'll be watching it,        Matt.

Good morning.

I'm writing about an area of disturbed weather in the central tropical Atlantic. The NHC is giving it an 80% chance of becoming a depression in the next 2 days. Currently there is high pressure just east of the State of Florida (see surface map bottom diagram) which would protect the state unless it should get into the Caribbean, south of Florida. It is still way to early to make an accurate prediction and there is still a lot of dry air and dust in front of it. 

I'll be keeping  an eye on it and will let you know as things develop.

                            Matt.
​

Good morning.

Since my last update on Tuesday both systems which I spoke about are now tropical storms however the overall forecast is really about the same.

Hanna is currently in the west-central Gulf of Mexico and is heading toward SE Texas. It is forecast to make landfall Saturday afternoon as a  65 mph tropical storm. The primary affects should be heavy rainfall with tree damage. In looking at the Gulf of Mexico water vapor loop below you can see it heading slowly WNW with nothing in front of it to alter it's course.

Gonzalo, a tiny storm with storm force winds currently extending only 20 miles from the center, continues to head in the general direction of Barbados / Grenada and Central America. If you look at the water vapor loop of the Caribbean below you will see SW shear north of Venezuela. Also look at the Saharan Air Layer Analysis, next to last diagram. Once it enters the Caribbean it will begin to encounter shear and dry air and dissipation is forecast in 4 days, before it reaches Central America.

The area which we'll need to watch is right off the coast of Africa. See bottom diagram. Note there is abundant dust and dry air in front of it and high shear currently over Florida which should hinder it. I'll be watching it but the current risk to Florida is low.

Until next time,

                                       Matt.
​

Good afternoon.

I'm writing about a couple of areas of disturbed weather neither of which pose a threat to Florida at this time.
The first is located in the Florida Straits and is associated with the shower activity which we are experiencing this afternoon in South Florida. It is currently heading towards eastern Texas, see surface map below. 
The second is located in the Southern Atlantic and will probably become a tropical depression later today or tomorrow. It will likely threaten Barbados, Grenada, the Southern Caribbean and Central America (Nicaragua- Belize).
Both are in areas of low shear and development is likely of both systems.
High pressure east of Florida should protect the state.
I'll be keeping an eye on both of them and will keep you posted as things develop.

Until next time,   
                                      Matt.
​
PS. Note the abundant dry air and dust in the Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic, last diagram. This should prevent much development north of 10 degrees, which is good news for now.

Good afternoon.

Tropical Storm Cristobal just formed in the Bay of Campeche. It is forecast to meander in the southern Bay of Campeche for a few days before eventually drifting north by this weekend. 
If you look at the surface map, 3rd diagram you can see strong high pressure over Florida which should protect the state and steer it in the general direction of eastern Texas or Louisiana.
If you look at Wind Shear analysis below, high shear over the Gulf of Mexico should prevent it from becoming too strong. The NHC is currently forecasting it to be either a strong Tropical Storm or Cat 1 Hurricane at landfall late Sunday or early Monday.

I'll be keeping an eye on it however it does not appear to pose a significant risk to Florida at the present time.

Until next time,     Matt.