Good morning.

Overnight TS Zeta has become much better organized and if you look at the water vapor loop below you can see that it is now moving NW towards the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is forecast to become a Cat 1 hurricane this morning. If you look at the satellite image, first diagram, you can see the frontal system that I wrote about yesterday approaching, spreading from Texas to the Great Lakes. If you look at the surface map you can see that high pressure has moved over Florida. If you look again at the water vapor loop again you can see dry air and high shear aloft over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC's track hasn't changed much and the models are coming into better agreement.

It is looking like Louisiana is going to get another storm, most likely a strong tropical storm, but we'll have to see. How much it is affected by its course over the Yucatan and how much it can shield itself from the dry air and shear will be key to how much it will weaken. It will be crossing cooler waters in the northern Gulf as well, however it will be moving faster.

The Florida Panhandle will probably get some squalls however the rest of the state of Florida shouldn't see much.

Elsewhere all is quiet and I'm hoping that this may be the last of them to threaten the US this year.

Until next time,
                                                    Matt.
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Good morning.

TS Zeta formed early this morning well south and west of where the NHC had forecast it to. Though the NHC says that it is currently moving N at 1 mph, if you look at the water vapor loop below you can see that it has been moving slowly SW over night. This has lead to a further westward shift in the models. It is expected to begin moving slowly NW later today. An approaching cold front over the Central US is forecast to cause high pressure over Florida to move westward drawing Zeta towards the Northern Gulf Coast.

Due to high shear and cooler waters over the northern Gulf of Mexico it is currently forecast to make landfall on late Wednesday or early Thursday as a tropical storm. 

I'll write again tomorrow, sooner if things should change. The risk to South Florida remains low.

Until next time, 

                                                      Matt.

Good morning.

The area in the Western Caribbean which I spoke about yesterday (Invest 95) still has not developed into a tropical depression. Since yesterday the models have shifted westward however there is huge uncertainty in the forecast as steering forces over Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico are very weak, see surface map below. There is also a huge spread in the models. Also if you look at the water vapor loop below you will see the high amount of shear, strong upper level winds streaming the cloud tops east to west over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Note the high pressure east of Florida is forecast to drift slowly westward, which is why the models are shifting, it hasn't happened yet.

The NHC is currently forecasting this area to slowly drift NW or N for the next few days. Development is likely in the next day or two. It should bring rains to the state of Florida.

Until it actually forms and a center of circulation is defined it will be very difficult to forecast just where it will go. Due to weak steering forces it is not likely to move very quickly.

I'll continue to watch it and will write again tomorrow, sooner if needed.

Until next time,
                                                         Matt.

Good morning.

I'm writing about a new area of disturbed weather in the Central Caribbean. The NHC is currently giving it a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days. It is currently in an area of low shear however if you look at the wind shear analysis below you can see that it will encounter high shear as it approaches Western Cuba. If you look at the Surface map below it currently looks like it should pass through the Florida Straits toward the Central and Northern Bahamas. It could however pass close to South Florida and will likely bring more rain with tropical storm force winds possible. Due to the high shear over Florida it is unlikely to more than a tropical storm when it is near South Florida. We'll need to keep an eye on this one.

I'll write again tomorrow.

                                                                  Matt.

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Good morning.

Tropical Storm Epsilon formed yesterday morning and is moving out to sea. It should miss Bermuda and the US. Elsewhere a weak area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean has a low probability of development and even if it should, it should be a weak system due to high shear to its north and move into Mexico.

If you look at the water vapor loop and the wind shear analysis below you can see that overall shear is increasing every where. The 2020 Hurricane Season is winding down, thank goodness.

I'll write again if things should change but currently nothing is out there threatening the US.

Until next time,
                                                                             Matt.

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Good morning.

Hurricane Delta made landfall on Friday evening near Creole, Louisiana, about 13 miles east of where Laura made landfall, as a Cat 2 hurricane. Peak sustained winds recorded on land were in the mid 80s with a peak gust of 100 mph at Texas Point, Texas near the Louisiana border at Sabine Pass. The highest rainfall was at Iowa, La., about 20 miles east of Lake Charles, La. with 16.51" recorded. The highest surge recorded was 9.3 feet SSW of Lafayette, La..

Below is a chart of Deltas Wind History. The yellow are storm force winds and the red hurricane force.

Currently there is nothing of real concern out there. One system exists which should encounter high shear and even if it should develop, it should miss the US.

Until next time,
                                                            Matt.

​

Good morning.

At 5 am Hurricane Delta was moving N @ 12 mph towards the SW Louisiana coastline. It is probably at its peak intensity now and gradual weakening prior to land fall is forecast due to increasing wind shear to its north and cooler waters. The NHC is currently calling for it to be a 100-110 mph Cat 2 at land fall. More likely peak sustained winds will be in the 90-100 mph range. If you look at the water vapor loop below you can see it starting to encounter SW shear.

Delta currently has a 30 mile wide eye with hurricane force winds extending 35 miles to the east and 25 miles to the west of the center with strongest winds extending 20 miles from the center. If you look at the Wind Field diagram below, the dark orange area would have to pass over you to experience hurricane conditions. If you look at the Surface Map below you can see exactly where it is heading. It should make landfall around 9-10 pm tonight. You will also notice high pressure over Florida. This should protect the state both from Delta and the yellow X below.

If you look at the Sea Surface Temperature diagram below you can see how both Gamma and Delta have removed a lot of heat from the Western Caribbean. (Compare to prior diagrams, especially 10-2-20, 1 week ago. That is good.)

Until next time,

                                                         Matt.

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Good morning.

Hurricane Delta is currently making landfall along the Northern Yucatan Peninsula between Cancun and Cozumel as a Cat 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. It has weakened overnight with steadily rising barometric pressures.

If you look at the surface map below you can see that building high pressure over Florida is making a Louisiana landfall more likely. High shear and cooler waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico should lead to weakening prior to landfall. It is forecast to strengthen once again to a Cat 4 tomorrow after it moves away from the Yucatan.

Just how strong it is at landfall will depend on how fast it is moving. In general the slower it goes the weaker it should become as it will have more time to be affected by the cooler waters and shear.

We'll have to see.

Elsewhere all is quiet.

Until next time,
                                                                     Matt.

​

Attached is the current color satellite loop of Delta, as of 2 pm a 140 mph Cat 4 hurricane. Surprisingly a distinct eye is not yet apparent though should be so very soon. The eye is a tiny 5 miles wide at present. You'll notice the remnants of Gamma over the northern Yucatan which are starting to be drawn into Delta. By tomorrow what's left of Gamma should be gone, eaten by Delta.

​Matt.

Good morning.

Delta has been undergoing rapid intensification since this time yesterday when it was a depression with 35 mph winds. They are now 100 mph and further rapid intensification is forecast and it will likely become a Cat 3 or 4 storm later today. Yesterday it moved due west rather than NW as was forecast and is now well south and west of where the NHC had forecast it to be. In light of this all of the models , for now, have shifted westward. It is presently in an area of low shear and warm water however shear will increase markedly after it moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico.. Delta is currently a very compact storm with hurricane force winds extending only 10-20 miles from the center and storm force winds extending 60-80 miles from the center. It will be much larger after it enters the Gulf. 

Gamma has dissipated and its remnants are currently over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. They will be drawn into Delta late tonight and early tomorrow as Delta approaches the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

In looking at the surface map below you can see the "window" centered over Louisiana, however due to shear most of Delta's weather is likely to be displaced to the east of the center. The NHC is still forecasting it to make landfall along the northern Gulf coast as a 100 mph Cat 2, due to shear and cooler waters close to shore, however its too soon to say.

I'll continue to watch for changes.

Until next time,                                     Matt.

PS. I'm going to try and post a Geo-Satellite Color Loop this afternoon which should be impressive by then.  We should be seeing a distinct eye by then.