Good morning.

At 5 am Tropical Depression Eta was moving ENE at 10 mph with peak winds of 35 mph. Last night around 8:30 pm Eta had minimal convection and it appeared that it could dissipate however overnight an area of deep convection has reformed NE of the center. Note if you compare the map below to the water vapor loop you will see that the center is actually well SW of the "green blob", it is actually just below the small green flare to the west. This is due the high amount of shear that it is encountering and why it hasn't strengthened yet. One possible scenario is that a new center may form NE of the present one under the area of convection. If this should occur it could intensify.
The NHC's track hasn't changed much, its a little west and north of yesterdays, however note it is significantly slower not bringing weather to South Florida until late Sunday night through Monday.

My track has not changed and is a little south of theirs. Bringing Eta just south of the Lower Florida Keys. (This difference will not likely affect the amount of weather that South Florida receives.)

Also note on the water vapor loop you can see the upper level low which I talked about yesterday just south of Louisiana. This is forecast to move into the central Gulf of Mexico and merge with Eta probably Wednesday/Thursday. In addition note the dry, yellow air in the Central Gulf of Mexico.

Due to high shear Eta will be an asymmetric system with most of its weather ENE of the center making Monday afternoon as the time when South Florida could see the most weather. (If the present timing is accurate.) Its still too early to say how much weather though most likely at this point, winds in the 40s with potentially a lot of rain if the "blob" stays over us but with the high shear, it may not. I suspect that it won't be as much as they are saying. (? 2-6" ?) It will all depend on how much it will be able to keep itself together in the hostile environment aloft in our area.

It is still possible that it doesn't intensify much if the center doesn't relocate or even dissipate in the high shear environment, and it still has to cross over the mountains of Cuba.

I'll write again this evening and early tomorrow morning.

Until next time,
                                                       Matt.

Good morning.

Tropical Depression Eta is currently located just east of Belize and is moving northward at 7 mph. Over night Eta has been moving north of where the NHC had anticipated it to be. At 11 pm their track took it further west passing near Dry Tortugas. The models at 2 am and 5 am have been shifting further east. We'll have to see if this trend continues or not. The keys will be, first when it starts to move NE as forecast and second how far east it gets before turning N and then NW due to an approaching front and cut off low which is expected to form in the Central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Extremely high shear exists north of Cuba and in particular over the Florida Straits and due to this Eta is not expected to become a hurricane again. In addition due to the high shear it is forecast to have a very large circulation with a lot of its weather displaced to the north and east of the center. The NHC is currently forecasting storm force winds to extend 150-200 to the NE of the center on Sunday and Monday.

If you look at the surface map below you can see the Bermuda High extending over Florida with easterly surface flow through the Florida Straits. If you look at the water vapor loop, bottom graphic, you can see the very strong westerly winds aloft (shear) over the Straits as well.

My current track takes it across west central Cuba just south of Miami, then turning N, then NW then WNW through the Florida Straits passing close to the Lower Florida Keys. My track is south and west of the NHC's at present. On my track it would pass between 150-200 miles SW of Miami. Due to this South Florida may receive tropical storm conditions on Sunday and early Monday morning, most likely in the 40-50 mph range and should prepare accordingly; however it is still way to early to say for sure if we will have more or less. Due to its slow movement South Florida will likely receive a lot of rain.

After passing South Florida it will probably make landfall in NW Florida somewhere between the Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida late next week, hopefully as an even weaker system.

I'll write again tomorrow morning. 

I currently do not anticipate hurricane conditions for Florida.

Until next time,

                                                                    Matt.

PS. As it progresses we'll get a better idea as to just how much weather South Florida will receive.

Good evening.

Just a quick update on Eta. Eta is currently over north-central Nicaragua as a minimal tropical storm. It should be downgraded to a depression soon. It is currently forecast to re-emerge over the Western Caribbean on Friday and then cross west -central Cuba on Sunday. Shear is extremely high north of Cuba, see bottom diagram, in excess of  70 knots.
The current NHC forecast is a very low probability forecast with a huge spread in the models at 5 days. We probably will not really know much until Friday.

I'll write again on Friday morning.

Until then,                                       
​                                                        Matt.

Good morning.

The 2020 Hurricane Season continues with Hurricane Eta about to make landfall along the Nicaraguan Coast as a Cat 4 hurricane. This is going to be a huge flooding event for Central America over the next several days with a very slow moving system. If it survives its trek across the spine of Central America it may emerge back into the Western Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Where it goes from there is highly uncertain. The models are all over the place. There is a good chance that it may dissipate altogether, we're just going to have to wait and see.

There is currently dry air and high shear over the entire state of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

I'll probably write again on Friday or Saturday, sooner if needed.

Until next time,   

                                                                Matt.

Good morning.

Hurricane Zeta made landfall along coastal Louisiana at 4:01 pm yesterday afternoon as a Cat 2 hurricane. Despite shear and cooler waters it did not weaken prior to landfall as was anticipated. A peak wind gust of 110 mph was recorded along the Mississippi Delta. Zeta passed directly over New Orleans with peak sustained winds recorded there in the 60s with gusts into the 80s.

Below I've attached a GeoColor Satellite loop from approximately 1 pm to 9 pm yesterday capturing its landfall. It is currently moving NE at near 40 mph and it is expected to move even faster today moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast this evening.

I've also attached a current SE US radar loop.

Until next time,

                                                          Matt.

Good morning.

Hurricane Zeta has strengthened continuously over night and a distinct eye is now apparent. (Note distinct eyes usually form when winds reach 90- 100 mph.) The latest advisory notes winds up to 90 mph and some additional strengthening is possible before landfall late this afternoon along the Louisiana Coast. If you look at the surface map below it looks like Zeta is going to New Orleans via Houma, LA first. Due to steady strengthening overnight Zeta has so far been able to fend off the shear to its north. It should start to weaken just prior to landfall however due to its fairly fast forward motion winds may still be in the  85-100 mph range when it comes onshore. Intensity is one of the hardest things to forecast as the storms affect the variables themselves.

The eye is currently around 30 miles wide and on its present track may pass over New Orleans. If you look at the satellite loop below you can see that it is now moving slightly east of north and you can also see the city lights across the southeastern US.

Until next time,

                                                        Matt.

​

Good morning.

TS Zeta is currently over the Northern Yucatan Peninsula. It made landfall last night as a Cat 1 hurricane near Tulum, Mexico with highest recorded sustained winds on land of 75 mph with a peak gust of near 90 mph. If you look at the water vapor loop below of the Gulf of Mexico you can see that it has weakening significantly since being over land however it should re emerge over the Southern Gulf of Mexico soon and re-intensification back to a Cat 1 hurricane is forecast. Winds will likely be in the 65-75 mph range at landfall along the Northern Gulf Coast late tomorrow night.

If you look at the surface map below you can see that high pressure over Florida has strengthen significantly and in accordance with that the models have come into strong agreement. It should be moving fairly quickly probably around 20 mph at landfall and after landfall should accelerate rapidly to the NE. I am currently in NC and it should pass directly over me as a Tropical Depression at around 12:30 pm on Thursday. It should be primarily a rain event here, however due to its rapid motion, probably over 40 mph, rainfall shouldn't be excessive, (? 1-3").

Elsewhere all is good and our La Nina continues, this is why 2020 has been such an active season. It is forecast to continue likely into spring which should lead to a warmer, dryer winter for the SE US and a wetter, cooler winter for the northern portions of the country with more polar fronts. Just how long it persists will be key to next years season. Most likely we'll have neutral ENSO conditions in the summer and fall of 2021 which should lead to an average season next year, but we'll have to see.

Until next time,
                                                         Matt.

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Good morning.

Overnight TS Zeta has become much better organized and if you look at the water vapor loop below you can see that it is now moving NW towards the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is forecast to become a Cat 1 hurricane this morning. If you look at the satellite image, first diagram, you can see the frontal system that I wrote about yesterday approaching, spreading from Texas to the Great Lakes. If you look at the surface map you can see that high pressure has moved over Florida. If you look again at the water vapor loop again you can see dry air and high shear aloft over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC's track hasn't changed much and the models are coming into better agreement.

It is looking like Louisiana is going to get another storm, most likely a strong tropical storm, but we'll have to see. How much it is affected by its course over the Yucatan and how much it can shield itself from the dry air and shear will be key to how much it will weaken. It will be crossing cooler waters in the northern Gulf as well, however it will be moving faster.

The Florida Panhandle will probably get some squalls however the rest of the state of Florida shouldn't see much.

Elsewhere all is quiet and I'm hoping that this may be the last of them to threaten the US this year.

Until next time,
                                                    Matt.
​

Good morning.

TS Zeta formed early this morning well south and west of where the NHC had forecast it to. Though the NHC says that it is currently moving N at 1 mph, if you look at the water vapor loop below you can see that it has been moving slowly SW over night. This has lead to a further westward shift in the models. It is expected to begin moving slowly NW later today. An approaching cold front over the Central US is forecast to cause high pressure over Florida to move westward drawing Zeta towards the Northern Gulf Coast.

Due to high shear and cooler waters over the northern Gulf of Mexico it is currently forecast to make landfall on late Wednesday or early Thursday as a tropical storm. 

I'll write again tomorrow, sooner if things should change. The risk to South Florida remains low.

Until next time, 

                                                      Matt.

Good morning.

The area in the Western Caribbean which I spoke about yesterday (Invest 95) still has not developed into a tropical depression. Since yesterday the models have shifted westward however there is huge uncertainty in the forecast as steering forces over Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico are very weak, see surface map below. There is also a huge spread in the models. Also if you look at the water vapor loop below you will see the high amount of shear, strong upper level winds streaming the cloud tops east to west over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Note the high pressure east of Florida is forecast to drift slowly westward, which is why the models are shifting, it hasn't happened yet.

The NHC is currently forecasting this area to slowly drift NW or N for the next few days. Development is likely in the next day or two. It should bring rains to the state of Florida.

Until it actually forms and a center of circulation is defined it will be very difficult to forecast just where it will go. Due to weak steering forces it is not likely to move very quickly.

I'll continue to watch it and will write again tomorrow, sooner if needed.

Until next time,
                                                         Matt.