Good morning.

At 5 am TS Eta was about to cross Central Cuba. Overnight it has been moving NNE and is slowing down. If you look at the water vapor loop below you can see the convection weakening some as it interacts with Cuba with dry (yellow) air moving into its SW quadrant. You can also see the upper level low which I'v been talking about is just north of the western tip of Cuba.

The models have continued to shift southward and the NHC has adjusted their track slightly southward though it is still north of the model consensus which is currently in alignment with my track, bringing Eta just south of the Lower Florida Keys. Due to its further than anticipated eastward location, it should pass 80-100 miles south of Miami at its closest approach, if this track holds.

Strong storm force winds, 60+ are currently forecast to extend 40-60 miles to the north of the center when it passes Florida with weak storm force winds extending 150-240 miles north of the center. In light of this The Miami area should experience winds in the 40s with gusts to 50s. The southern parts of Miami - Dade could experience winds 40-60 mph on this track. 60s in the Keys with higher gusts.

Most of the weather will occur late tonight and Monday morning with strongest winds out of the NE, E and SE.

I'll write again this afternoon and again this evening.

Until next time,                  
                                                                         Matt.

Good evening.

There has been an interesting development with Eta over the past few hours. Since 4 pm it has been moving due east at 12 mph and is currently south and east of where the NHC had forecast it to be. The net result of this is that a track a little further south is possible, more in line with my original track near the lower Florida Keys. Its too early to say for sure as it could just represent an eastward wobble and the NHC has not changed their track however the models are now reflecting this change, see below.

If that trend persists my original forecast would hold with winds in the 40s vs the 60s for mainland South Florida, more in the Keys.

We'll know more in the morning and I'll be reviewing data and reporting around 5 am.

I'll probably make three posts tomorrow.

Cross our fingers.

Until next time,
                                                         Matt.

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Good afternoon.

At 1 pm Hurricane Hunters found a new center of circulation of TS Eta over 200 miles to the ENE of the old center under the area of deep convection. This changes everything.

If you look at the water vapor loop below you can see the new center just north of Grand Cayman, The old center is just north of the Honduran coast. You can also see that the upper level low off of Louisiana is moving SSE.

Eta is already south of the Florida Peninsula and a more eastward track is now highly likely. The NHC's current track takes it across Key Largo. Due to the high shear an even further eastward track is possible. As expected in this scenario it is now stronger, 60 mph and the NHC is calling for it to be a 60-65 mph storm as it approaches South Florida, now on Sunday night and Monday morning. The track is likely to change further however South Florida should prepare for winds in the 60s. Tropical storms tend to be tree storms rather than structure storms however there is always the potential for tornados.

I will write again this evening.

Until then,                                        Matt.

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Good morning.

At 5 am Tropical Depression Eta was moving ENE at 10 mph with peak winds of 35 mph. Last night around 8:30 pm Eta had minimal convection and it appeared that it could dissipate however overnight an area of deep convection has reformed NE of the center. Note if you compare the map below to the water vapor loop you will see that the center is actually well SW of the "green blob", it is actually just below the small green flare to the west. This is due the high amount of shear that it is encountering and why it hasn't strengthened yet. One possible scenario is that a new center may form NE of the present one under the area of convection. If this should occur it could intensify.
The NHC's track hasn't changed much, its a little west and north of yesterdays, however note it is significantly slower not bringing weather to South Florida until late Sunday night through Monday.

My track has not changed and is a little south of theirs. Bringing Eta just south of the Lower Florida Keys. (This difference will not likely affect the amount of weather that South Florida receives.)

Also note on the water vapor loop you can see the upper level low which I talked about yesterday just south of Louisiana. This is forecast to move into the central Gulf of Mexico and merge with Eta probably Wednesday/Thursday. In addition note the dry, yellow air in the Central Gulf of Mexico.

Due to high shear Eta will be an asymmetric system with most of its weather ENE of the center making Monday afternoon as the time when South Florida could see the most weather. (If the present timing is accurate.) Its still too early to say how much weather though most likely at this point, winds in the 40s with potentially a lot of rain if the "blob" stays over us but with the high shear, it may not. I suspect that it won't be as much as they are saying. (? 2-6" ?) It will all depend on how much it will be able to keep itself together in the hostile environment aloft in our area.

It is still possible that it doesn't intensify much if the center doesn't relocate or even dissipate in the high shear environment, and it still has to cross over the mountains of Cuba.

I'll write again this evening and early tomorrow morning.

Until next time,
                                                       Matt.

Good morning.

Tropical Depression Eta is currently located just east of Belize and is moving northward at 7 mph. Over night Eta has been moving north of where the NHC had anticipated it to be. At 11 pm their track took it further west passing near Dry Tortugas. The models at 2 am and 5 am have been shifting further east. We'll have to see if this trend continues or not. The keys will be, first when it starts to move NE as forecast and second how far east it gets before turning N and then NW due to an approaching front and cut off low which is expected to form in the Central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Extremely high shear exists north of Cuba and in particular over the Florida Straits and due to this Eta is not expected to become a hurricane again. In addition due to the high shear it is forecast to have a very large circulation with a lot of its weather displaced to the north and east of the center. The NHC is currently forecasting storm force winds to extend 150-200 to the NE of the center on Sunday and Monday.

If you look at the surface map below you can see the Bermuda High extending over Florida with easterly surface flow through the Florida Straits. If you look at the water vapor loop, bottom graphic, you can see the very strong westerly winds aloft (shear) over the Straits as well.

My current track takes it across west central Cuba just south of Miami, then turning N, then NW then WNW through the Florida Straits passing close to the Lower Florida Keys. My track is south and west of the NHC's at present. On my track it would pass between 150-200 miles SW of Miami. Due to this South Florida may receive tropical storm conditions on Sunday and early Monday morning, most likely in the 40-50 mph range and should prepare accordingly; however it is still way to early to say for sure if we will have more or less. Due to its slow movement South Florida will likely receive a lot of rain.

After passing South Florida it will probably make landfall in NW Florida somewhere between the Panhandle and the Big Bend area of Florida late next week, hopefully as an even weaker system.

I'll write again tomorrow morning. 

I currently do not anticipate hurricane conditions for Florida.

Until next time,

                                                                    Matt.

PS. As it progresses we'll get a better idea as to just how much weather South Florida will receive.

Good evening.

Just a quick update on Eta. Eta is currently over north-central Nicaragua as a minimal tropical storm. It should be downgraded to a depression soon. It is currently forecast to re-emerge over the Western Caribbean on Friday and then cross west -central Cuba on Sunday. Shear is extremely high north of Cuba, see bottom diagram, in excess of  70 knots.
The current NHC forecast is a very low probability forecast with a huge spread in the models at 5 days. We probably will not really know much until Friday.

I'll write again on Friday morning.

Until then,                                       
​                                                        Matt.

Good morning.

The 2020 Hurricane Season continues with Hurricane Eta about to make landfall along the Nicaraguan Coast as a Cat 4 hurricane. This is going to be a huge flooding event for Central America over the next several days with a very slow moving system. If it survives its trek across the spine of Central America it may emerge back into the Western Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Where it goes from there is highly uncertain. The models are all over the place. There is a good chance that it may dissipate altogether, we're just going to have to wait and see.

There is currently dry air and high shear over the entire state of Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

I'll probably write again on Friday or Saturday, sooner if needed.

Until next time,   

                                                                Matt.

Good morning.

Hurricane Zeta made landfall along coastal Louisiana at 4:01 pm yesterday afternoon as a Cat 2 hurricane. Despite shear and cooler waters it did not weaken prior to landfall as was anticipated. A peak wind gust of 110 mph was recorded along the Mississippi Delta. Zeta passed directly over New Orleans with peak sustained winds recorded there in the 60s with gusts into the 80s.

Below I've attached a GeoColor Satellite loop from approximately 1 pm to 9 pm yesterday capturing its landfall. It is currently moving NE at near 40 mph and it is expected to move even faster today moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast this evening.

I've also attached a current SE US radar loop.

Until next time,

                                                          Matt.

Good morning.

Hurricane Zeta has strengthened continuously over night and a distinct eye is now apparent. (Note distinct eyes usually form when winds reach 90- 100 mph.) The latest advisory notes winds up to 90 mph and some additional strengthening is possible before landfall late this afternoon along the Louisiana Coast. If you look at the surface map below it looks like Zeta is going to New Orleans via Houma, LA first. Due to steady strengthening overnight Zeta has so far been able to fend off the shear to its north. It should start to weaken just prior to landfall however due to its fairly fast forward motion winds may still be in the  85-100 mph range when it comes onshore. Intensity is one of the hardest things to forecast as the storms affect the variables themselves.

The eye is currently around 30 miles wide and on its present track may pass over New Orleans. If you look at the satellite loop below you can see that it is now moving slightly east of north and you can also see the city lights across the southeastern US.

Until next time,

                                                        Matt.

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Good morning.

TS Zeta is currently over the Northern Yucatan Peninsula. It made landfall last night as a Cat 1 hurricane near Tulum, Mexico with highest recorded sustained winds on land of 75 mph with a peak gust of near 90 mph. If you look at the water vapor loop below of the Gulf of Mexico you can see that it has weakening significantly since being over land however it should re emerge over the Southern Gulf of Mexico soon and re-intensification back to a Cat 1 hurricane is forecast. Winds will likely be in the 65-75 mph range at landfall along the Northern Gulf Coast late tomorrow night.

If you look at the surface map below you can see that high pressure over Florida has strengthen significantly and in accordance with that the models have come into strong agreement. It should be moving fairly quickly probably around 20 mph at landfall and after landfall should accelerate rapidly to the NE. I am currently in NC and it should pass directly over me as a Tropical Depression at around 12:30 pm on Thursday. It should be primarily a rain event here, however due to its rapid motion, probably over 40 mph, rainfall shouldn't be excessive, (? 1-3").

Elsewhere all is good and our La Nina continues, this is why 2020 has been such an active season. It is forecast to continue likely into spring which should lead to a warmer, dryer winter for the SE US and a wetter, cooler winter for the northern portions of the country with more polar fronts. Just how long it persists will be key to next years season. Most likely we'll have neutral ENSO conditions in the summer and fall of 2021 which should lead to an average season next year, but we'll have to see.

Until next time,
                                                         Matt.

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