Good morning, I
There have been some interesting developments overnight with regards to Florence and Isaac.
First, with regards to Florence. In looking at the water vapor loop this morning (image #3 below), Florence is starting to slow and shift its movement from a NW to a WNW direction. We also notice that the eye is no longer well-defined. In support of this, when Hurricane Hunters investigated the system this morning, they found a peak wind of only 98 mph. Florence is currently a Cat 2. If you look at the surface map (image #4 below), you can see an interesting development. The high pressure over the Midwest has merged with the Bermuda High, creating a blocking ridge to its northwest. This is why Florence will turn to the west and stall, followed by a slow drift to the southwest. The exact location of where this occurs will be key to how much weather the Carolinas receive. Due to shear and upwelling as it slows and approaches the coast, Florence should continue to weaken and is likely to be a Cat 1 storm when it makes landfall. Its windfield, however, is quite large, with hurricane-force winds extending 60 miles to the northwest and 50 miles to the southwest , and with storm-force winds extending 140 miles NW and 110 miles SW. This will create a prolonged weather event, though not of the intensity as originally forecast.
With regards to Isaac, there is good news. If you look at the Two-Day satellite map (image #5), you can see that all its weather is displaced from the center. Peak winds have decreased to 45 mph and the NHC is currently expecting it to degenerate into an open trough in 2-4 days. More likely this will happen in 1-2 days as it is entering an area of even higher shear. In looking at the surface map, even if it should regenerate, it should still miss the state of Florida and is unlikely to pose a significant threat to the US.
Elsewhere, Joyce and Helene are weakening, and the area in the Gulf doesn't look like it will have time to develop.
Until next time,
Matt (and Cassie)
There have been some interesting developments overnight with regards to Florence and Isaac.
First, with regards to Florence. In looking at the water vapor loop this morning (image #3 below), Florence is starting to slow and shift its movement from a NW to a WNW direction. We also notice that the eye is no longer well-defined. In support of this, when Hurricane Hunters investigated the system this morning, they found a peak wind of only 98 mph. Florence is currently a Cat 2. If you look at the surface map (image #4 below), you can see an interesting development. The high pressure over the Midwest has merged with the Bermuda High, creating a blocking ridge to its northwest. This is why Florence will turn to the west and stall, followed by a slow drift to the southwest. The exact location of where this occurs will be key to how much weather the Carolinas receive. Due to shear and upwelling as it slows and approaches the coast, Florence should continue to weaken and is likely to be a Cat 1 storm when it makes landfall. Its windfield, however, is quite large, with hurricane-force winds extending 60 miles to the northwest and 50 miles to the southwest , and with storm-force winds extending 140 miles NW and 110 miles SW. This will create a prolonged weather event, though not of the intensity as originally forecast.
With regards to Isaac, there is good news. If you look at the Two-Day satellite map (image #5), you can see that all its weather is displaced from the center. Peak winds have decreased to 45 mph and the NHC is currently expecting it to degenerate into an open trough in 2-4 days. More likely this will happen in 1-2 days as it is entering an area of even higher shear. In looking at the surface map, even if it should regenerate, it should still miss the state of Florida and is unlikely to pose a significant threat to the US.
Elsewhere, Joyce and Helene are weakening, and the area in the Gulf doesn't look like it will have time to develop.
Until next time,
Matt (and Cassie)