Good morning just a quick update.
The NHC is following a weak area of low pressure along the Yucatan Peninsula, Invest 93. It is giving it a 70% chance of tropical development over the next 2 days, 90% over the next 7 days. Steering forces are weak though the current models are in agreement in it moving towards the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend area. There is plenty of warm water in front of it though there is significant wind shear in front of it which should slow development. High pressure over the central and south central US has weakened as has the high pressure over the Atlantic. It should move slowly and a more westerly track is possible. We'll need to keep an eye on it however it currently does NOT pose a threat to South Florida. We may see enhanced rainfall associated with it on Monday and Tuesday.
We'll start to get a better feel for where it may go after it actually forms, if it does, though it is likely.
Until next time,
Matt.
The NHC is following a weak area of low pressure along the Yucatan Peninsula, Invest 93. It is giving it a 70% chance of tropical development over the next 2 days, 90% over the next 7 days. Steering forces are weak though the current models are in agreement in it moving towards the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend area. There is plenty of warm water in front of it though there is significant wind shear in front of it which should slow development. High pressure over the central and south central US has weakened as has the high pressure over the Atlantic. It should move slowly and a more westerly track is possible. We'll need to keep an eye on it however it currently does NOT pose a threat to South Florida. We may see enhanced rainfall associated with it on Monday and Tuesday.
We'll start to get a better feel for where it may go after it actually forms, if it does, though it is likely.
Until next time,
Matt.