Good afternoon.

I'm writing about a couple of areas of disturbed weather neither of which pose a threat to Florida at this time.
The first is located in the Florida Straits and is associated with the shower activity which we are experiencing this afternoon in South Florida. It is currently heading towards eastern Texas, see surface map below. 
The second is located in the Southern Atlantic and will probably become a tropical depression later today or tomorrow. It will likely threaten Barbados, Grenada, the Southern Caribbean and Central America (Nicaragua- Belize).
Both are in areas of low shear and development is likely of both systems.
High pressure east of Florida should protect the state.
I'll be keeping an eye on both of them and will keep you posted as things develop.

Until next time,   
                                      Matt.
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PS. Note the abundant dry air and dust in the Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic, last diagram. This should prevent much development north of 10 degrees, which is good news for now.

Good afternoon.

Tropical Storm Cristobal just formed in the Bay of Campeche. It is forecast to meander in the southern Bay of Campeche for a few days before eventually drifting north by this weekend. 
If you look at the surface map, 3rd diagram you can see strong high pressure over Florida which should protect the state and steer it in the general direction of eastern Texas or Louisiana.
If you look at Wind Shear analysis below, high shear over the Gulf of Mexico should prevent it from becoming too strong. The NHC is currently forecasting it to be either a strong Tropical Storm or Cat 1 Hurricane at landfall late Sunday or early Monday.

I'll be keeping an eye on it however it does not appear to pose a significant risk to Florida at the present time.

Until next time,     Matt.

Good morning.

Tropical Storm Bertha formed this am just off the coast of SE South Carolina and is expected to move inland over the next couple of hours. It should produce mild tropical storm conditions and abundant rainfall. It formed from  the remnants of the system that produced over 12" of rain at my house in South Florida this past Memorial Day weekend. It should be downgraded to a depression shortly after landfall. Elsewhere things are quiet.

Until next time,     Matt.

PS. My site has been down the past couple of weeks and I was unable to get a post out on Arthur. Fortunately it was fixed this am.

Hello all,

2019 was a quiet year for South Florida and the US in general though we had a scare from Hurricane Dorian which devastated Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Island with sustained Cat 5 conditions, and clipped the Outer Banks with Cat 1 conditions.

The National Weather Service just came out with its April 20th ENSO forecast. It currently shows that we have neutral ENSO conditions and is giving a 60% chance that they will continue through the end of the 2020 Hurricane Season. They currently give around a 30% chance of La Nina conditions developing in the fall. If that would occur it could increase the likelihood for an above average season.

In looking at the tropics, we have above average water temperatures in the Caribbean and right along the coast of Central Africa with below average water temperatures across the Eastern and Central Atlantic (see first image below).

In looking at the current Saharan Air Layer Analysis (second image) we can see extensive dry air and Saharan dust across the entire Tropical Atlantic extending into the Caribbean Sea.

In light of all the above I am currently forecasting an above average season with a slow start and potentially busy finish to the season with areas of greatest risk being the Caribbean, northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico as well as the Carolinas. The warm water in the far eastern Atlantic could lead to an above average Cape Verde season as well.

On average we see  12 named storms/ year with 6-7 hurricanes of which 2-3 become major hurricanes. The overall risk for South Florida should be around average. The average risk of hurricane conditions being experienced in South Florida is about 14% chance per year.

Last year rainfall at my house totaled 58.08 ", below my 30 year running average of 67.55".


I'll be watching closely as usual and will write Updates as the need arises.

Hoping for a quiet season for all,

Matt.

​Good morning,
 
At 8 am the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm Nestor was located over the extreme northwest Gulf of Mexico. Due to high shear over Nestor, Nestor is a completely “uncoupled” system, meaning that all weather and thunderstorm activity is well away from the center. The exact center of circulation is poorly defined and uncertain, according to the NHC, with no associated weather over it. This will be a non-event for those that the center passes over. 
 
All the weather is well east of the center, and the primary area affected will be the Big Bend area of Florida. Peak winds will be in the 40s and the main risk will be from isolated brief tornadoes and to those on the immediate coast who are at risk from a 2-4 ft. storm surge.
 
Wishing everyone a good weekend.
 
Until next time,
Matt

Good morning.

Just a quick update. Things continue to look good in the tropics. An area of low pressure in the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico is forecast to drift  NE and eventually east. The NHC is currently giving it a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days. If you look at the Surface Map below you can see that the steering forces will head it generally toward the Big Bend area of Florida. High wind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico however should prevent any significant development. 
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Sea surface temperatures, bottom diagram, fortunately are continuing to moderate.

Until next time,              Matt. 
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Good morning.

Just a quick update. The tropics remain quiet. There are a couple of areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic. Both should miss the US and are surrounded by significant shear which should limit development. There are a couple of waves coming off Africa which I'll be watching however nothing to them at present.
Elsewhere a stalled frontal boundary over the Lake Okeechobee region of Florida combined with a southerly flow will lead to increased shower chances for South Florida this week.

Until next time,          Matt.
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PS. Note SST diagram below. The waters are starting to cool. The Western Gulf of Mexico remains warm.

Good morning.

With regards to Karen we have good news. First it is north of where the NHC had expected it to be at this time. Second, and most importantly it is much weaker. The strong upper level westerly winds which I talked about on Monday have taken their toll. The latest NHC satellite observations could not find a clear center of circulation and all of the dynamic models are now forecasting dissipation within 4 days due to an increasingly hostile upper level environment. If you look at the water vapor loop below you can see that the upper level low, now over the northern Bahamas remains between Karen and the state of Florida. This is contributing to the shear of Karen. Currently the risk to Florida and the US is minimal.

Elsewhere Lorenzo is a Cat 4 storm and is slowly moving NNW and out to sea. It is drawing a lot of heat out of the ocean in the process which is also good news.

Presently there is nothing else out there and we should have another 1-2 weeks of low risk.

​Until next time,             Matt.

Good morning.

With regards to TS Karen not much has changed overall. The NHC is forecasting it to stall on Friday and then meander for a few days while a ridge builds to its east and north. The models are still all over the place and the confidence in ANY track right now is very low. Of the approximately 50 models in the diagram below very few approach Florida. We currently have dry air and high pressure over Florida which is protecting the state. The variable of time with it stalling will be the wild card. It's just way too early to make a prediction however we are approaching October and frontal systems will be marching across the country and in all likelihood, if it meanders long enough, one will pick it up and whisk it off to the NE out to sea. It's just going to be a matter of timing.

Below you will see the Surface Map which shows where Karen and Jerry are heading. If you look at the Water Vapor Loop, bottom diagram you will notice an upper level low just north of the SE Bahamas. This could become a significant factor in a few days. If it stays between Karen and South- Central Florida it could  protect parts or all of the state.

​Jerry and Lorenzo are both moving out to sea. A wave over the Yucatan Peninsula will move into the Bay of Campeche and will be moving into Central Mexico in a few days.

Until next time,                  

Matt.
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Good morning. 

I'm writing about a few areas in the tropics. First TS Jerry and TD #13 are going to both move out to sea. The only area of potential concern is TS Karen. It is in an area of high shear and is forecast to pass over or near Puerto Rico tomorrow afternoon as a weak tropical storm. The main concern there will be rainfall over the mountainous terrain. On Friday it is forecast to stall east of Florida, south of Bermuda. If you look at the models they are all over the place after it stalls.
If you look at the water vapor loop below you will see it struggling under easterly shear. You will also notice very strong westerly upper level winds over South and Central Florida. This is good. It is way too early to predict where it will ultimately go. We probably won't really know until late this weekend. Currently conditions do NOT favor a storm for South Florida, however the atmosphere is constantly changing and when systems stall, things can change. There is a good chance that it will stall, loop and then go back out to sea.

I'll write again later in the week, though at this time I am not overly concerned. 

Until next time,

Matt.

PS. Please note Sea Surface Temperatures (SST), bottom diagram, notice how these past several storms have reduced the overall water temperatures. Compare to SST chart of 9-10-19.
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