Good morning.
At 5 am the NHC guesstimated the center of Fred just north of Havana. If you look at the water vapor loop you will notice once again that there is no weather anywhere near this area. In reality Fred dissipated on Thursday. The NHC hasn't acknowledged it yet because they have felt that it would regenerate once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, which is possible, however they have been unable to find a center of circulation for a while. If it should regenerate it is likely to only become a minimal system and I presently have little concerns about it. It is probably at its closest approach to SE FL now. Also note that the ULL off the FL SW coast has moved little and will make it even harder on Fred.
The one which we'll have to watch for now is Grace. Grace formed yesterday and was much further SE than the NHC had originally thought. This has placed it further south than anticipated earlier and it has a chance of entering the Caribbean. The NHC track, no surprise, is center near Miami however if you look at the models 2 distinct scenarios are present. One that takes it into Cuba and the other that takes it east of Florida. They of course have to average them and pick Miami, despite none of the models are pointing at us. I suspect it will take the northern route however until it makes its move, and remains to our south we'll have to watch it. It way too early to say. Grace is presently a tiny system and would have to go thru a similar environment that Fred did, which took him out. It is only projected to be a 40-50 mph TS when it is near FL. The average NHC error in their tracks at 5 days is almost 200 miles. The current NHC track is unlikely.
Until next time,
Matt.
At 5 am the NHC guesstimated the center of Fred just north of Havana. If you look at the water vapor loop you will notice once again that there is no weather anywhere near this area. In reality Fred dissipated on Thursday. The NHC hasn't acknowledged it yet because they have felt that it would regenerate once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, which is possible, however they have been unable to find a center of circulation for a while. If it should regenerate it is likely to only become a minimal system and I presently have little concerns about it. It is probably at its closest approach to SE FL now. Also note that the ULL off the FL SW coast has moved little and will make it even harder on Fred.
The one which we'll have to watch for now is Grace. Grace formed yesterday and was much further SE than the NHC had originally thought. This has placed it further south than anticipated earlier and it has a chance of entering the Caribbean. The NHC track, no surprise, is center near Miami however if you look at the models 2 distinct scenarios are present. One that takes it into Cuba and the other that takes it east of Florida. They of course have to average them and pick Miami, despite none of the models are pointing at us. I suspect it will take the northern route however until it makes its move, and remains to our south we'll have to watch it. It way too early to say. Grace is presently a tiny system and would have to go thru a similar environment that Fred did, which took him out. It is only projected to be a 40-50 mph TS when it is near FL. The average NHC error in their tracks at 5 days is almost 200 miles. The current NHC track is unlikely.
Until next time,
Matt.