Good morning.
I have been following conditions in the Atlantic and Pacific for the past few months and it is starting to look more likely that an El Nino may form by the end of the year. We currently have La Nina conditions, why we had above normal activity last year, however they will probably end in June with neutral ENSO conditions for the summer with an El Nino starting between September and January. If it starts in November or December it should have little impact on the 2018 Tropical Season, however if it starts in September or October it could lead to reduced activity late in the season.
Currently we have reduced shear, related to the La Nina, below average water temperatures in the Eastern Atlantic and above average temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic. This pattern would favor storms in the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic putting the northern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas at greater risk this year.
I currently anticipate an average Hurricane season for the Atlantic. If an El Nino develops early enough we may see some reduction in late storms. With the currently favorable conditions the possibility of late May or June storms would be greater.
On average we see 12 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes with 3 major in the Atlantic Basin each year with an approximate 14% chance of hurricane conditions being observed in Miami-Dade County.
Below are charts of, first, water temperatures in the Pacific, blue are below average, yellow are above average. La Nina is >3 months of temperatures < 0.5 degrees below average, El Nino > 3 months with water temperature > 0.5 degrees above average. Notice we are currently in the blue however temperatures are rising.
Second is the probability of La Nina, Neutral ENSO or El Nino conditions. Notice by October, November, December El Nino condition are more likely than La Nina or Neutral Enso conditions and that the probability curve is rising.
Hoping for a quiet tropical season in South Florida however remember how busy a season over all is not what counts. Its weather you get a storm or not and that is dependent on the specific conditions that exist at the time it is out there. And that is not something that anyone can predict at this time.
My best to all, Matt.
PS. For those new to the site I recommend viewing 3 things in the Archive Section to give you a better feel for what I do, and how I differ from anyone else. Please read my Perspective from 2005, as well as my forecasts for Ivan and Katrina.
I have been following conditions in the Atlantic and Pacific for the past few months and it is starting to look more likely that an El Nino may form by the end of the year. We currently have La Nina conditions, why we had above normal activity last year, however they will probably end in June with neutral ENSO conditions for the summer with an El Nino starting between September and January. If it starts in November or December it should have little impact on the 2018 Tropical Season, however if it starts in September or October it could lead to reduced activity late in the season.
Currently we have reduced shear, related to the La Nina, below average water temperatures in the Eastern Atlantic and above average temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic. This pattern would favor storms in the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic putting the northern Gulf Coast and the Carolinas at greater risk this year.
I currently anticipate an average Hurricane season for the Atlantic. If an El Nino develops early enough we may see some reduction in late storms. With the currently favorable conditions the possibility of late May or June storms would be greater.
On average we see 12 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes with 3 major in the Atlantic Basin each year with an approximate 14% chance of hurricane conditions being observed in Miami-Dade County.
Below are charts of, first, water temperatures in the Pacific, blue are below average, yellow are above average. La Nina is >3 months of temperatures < 0.5 degrees below average, El Nino > 3 months with water temperature > 0.5 degrees above average. Notice we are currently in the blue however temperatures are rising.
Second is the probability of La Nina, Neutral ENSO or El Nino conditions. Notice by October, November, December El Nino condition are more likely than La Nina or Neutral Enso conditions and that the probability curve is rising.
Hoping for a quiet tropical season in South Florida however remember how busy a season over all is not what counts. Its weather you get a storm or not and that is dependent on the specific conditions that exist at the time it is out there. And that is not something that anyone can predict at this time.
My best to all, Matt.
PS. For those new to the site I recommend viewing 3 things in the Archive Section to give you a better feel for what I do, and how I differ from anyone else. Please read my Perspective from 2005, as well as my forecasts for Ivan and Katrina.