Good evening.

At 8 pm Hurricane Ida was in the east central Gulf of Mexico and is currently headed in the direction of New Orleans. Today it took a NNW wobble and has since resumed its NW motion however this has caused the models and track to shift further east. On its current trajectory it should pass between New Orlean and Houma in the vicinity of the La Fourche Bayou and Golden Meadow.
Ida is projected to be a 130-140 mph Cat 4 storm at landfall with a very narrow band of hurricane force winds. They are projected to extend 30 miles to the NE and SE of the center and 25 miles to the NW. The major hurricane force winds should be confined to the eye wall. Hurricane hunters are probably in the storm now and hopefully we'll have more information soon about the size of the eye and if an eye wall has formed yet. In a major hurricane "eye wall is everything". If you are outside of the eye wall you usually only receive Cat 1 conditions. (Occasionally Cat 2 in extreme storms.) Due to its forecast rapid intensification I would estimate that the eye will be between 10-20 miles wide at landfall. Eye walls are usually 3-5 miles thick. If we take the 2 larger numbers, 20 mile eye, 5 mile thick eye wall, it would have to pass within 15 miles of you to receive major hurricane conditions. (Possibly as little as 8 if we take the 2 smaller numbers.)

It is going to be close for New Orleans. If it receives eye wall it will be worse than Katrina. Fortunately its moving fairly quickly so its shouldn't be a prolonged event but its going to be very bad for those in its direct path. Stick structures do not fair well in major hurricanes.

Note the ULL in the Gulf is now south of Texas and should have no influence on Ida.

I wish everyone well and that those in its direct path can get out, and that it's center doesn't pass within 15 miles of NOLA.

Until next time,             

                                                             Matt.

Good morning.

Just a brief update. Florida currently appears to be okay however it looks like Louisiana is going to get another hurricane possibly a major one. If you look at the models below they have become focused on Louisiana. 

If you look at the Water Vapor Loop below you will notice an upper level low just south of Mississippi moving slowly westward. This was the same ULL that was just off the SE FL coast 2 d ago. Just where it is on Sunday may have a significant influence on just where Ida goes. If it is just to the west of it, it will tend to deflect her eastward, conversely if it remains to its east a more westerly track. If it is not close enough to affect it, it would tend to proceed straight in the direction that it is currently headed which would be towards Lake Charles, Louisiana.

After it enters the Gulf of Mexico it will be entering an area of low shear and very warm water, (see Wind Shear Analysis and SSTs below) and rapid intensification is possible. The NHC is currently forecasting it to be a Cat 3 115 mph hurricane at landfall. It could even be more but hopefully will run out of time before it gets a chance.

I'll try to put out an update tomorrow evening when we should know more.

Until next time,

                                                                    Matt.

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Good morning.

​I'm writing today about a few systems out there but would like to start by saying that none are currently forecast to affect the US. Texas will need to keep an eye on the one in the Caribbean however it is currently expected to turn west into Mexico.

I just would like to point out a few things. First if you look at the SAL Analysis below you can see that dry Saharan air and dust are still being pumped SW deep into the Tropical Atlantic. This is good and has led to relatively little activity so far in July and August of this year. You can also see the dust currently over South Florida, and some larger gaps in it are starting to form. This has been due to erosion of the dust by the various weather systems in the Atlantic, you can actually see the effects of each of them.

Next if you look at the IR of Africa below you can see a weather system over central Africa centered around 10 degrees latitude. This will become the next system for us to watch. It should come off the African coast in around 4 days and is around 14 days away from potentially affecting the US. Hopefully it will move out to sea, however it may be coming off the coast in the "sweet spot" (between 10 and 12 degrees) and climatologically at a time of high risk for development.

Next if you look at the water vapor loop, last image, you can see an upper level low over the Bahamas moving west towards South Florida. This will lead increased rain chances across South Florida for the next several days.

So far so good.

Until next time,
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                                                          Matt.

Good morning.

We have three systems to discuss this morning but none to worry about.

Fred is currently headed to the Panama City / St. Vincent Island area as a 50 mph tropical storm. It should arrive tonight and primarily be a rain event for them.

TD Grace never made the WNW move as the NHC had forecast yesterday and instead moved west all day yesterday. In light of this the models and tracks have shifted further south and it now appears that she will be going to Mexico. (It may even track further south than the current track.)

TD #8 formed yesterday NE of Bermuda and is forecast to take a loop around the island and then move out to sea.

Elsewhere all is good for now. I may not write for a few days unless things should change with Grace or other threats should arise.

Until next time,

                                                                       Matt.

 Good morning.

He's back ! Hurricane Hunters this morning found a new center of circulation well north of where they had projected the old one to be and TS Fred is back. Due to shear Fred is only anticipated to be a 45-50 mph TS when it makes landfall tomorrow along the Florida Panhandle. The primary impact will be rainfall.

Meanwhile Grace remains poorly organized and in looking at Puerto Rico radar a clear center of circulation is not evident. It remains a minimal TS and is about to cross Hispaniola and Cuba. No significant weather is anticipated for Florida though some enhancement of our normal summer thunderstorms can be expected with the increase in tropical moisture when it passes south of Florida.

If you look at the Saharan Air Layer Analysis and the IR Satellite image of Africa below you see what I talked about yesterday evening. We should be ok for a while.

Until next time,

                                            Matt.

Good evening.

At 11 am the NHC officially acknowledged Fred's dissipation though they still expect that it may regenerate. My thoughts about it are unchanged since this am. Grace however appears to have chosen the southern route and the NHC have shifted their track accordingly. Early this morning it appeared to be moving WNW however if you look at the current water vapor loop below you can see that it has taken a decided WSW  move, ? wobble. The net effect is that Grace has moved overall due west today and has entered the Caribbean. The NHC's current track is in alignment with the model consensus along the southern scenario that I mentioned this am. Grace is currently a tiny storm and hopefully will meet the same fate as Fred. We'll see. It is moving rather quickly as you can see below.

I will probably post tomorrow early afternoon as it will take that time to see just how Grace approaches Hispaniola. That will be key. If it takes the NHC's track it would be severely disrupted. A more northerly track could be of concern but hopefully will remain a minimal tropical storm, or less.

​Beyond Grace Saharan dust and dry air has once again invaded the Eastern Tropical Atlantic and I suspect that we will not see further activity for 1-2 weeks or more.

Until next time,

                                                                   Matt.

Good morning.

At 5 am the NHC guesstimated the center of Fred just north of Havana. If you look at the water vapor loop you will notice once again that there is no weather anywhere near this area. In reality Fred dissipated on Thursday. The NHC hasn't acknowledged it yet because they have felt that it would regenerate once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, which is possible, however they have been unable to find a center of circulation for a while. If it should regenerate it is likely to only become a minimal system and I presently have little concerns about it. It is probably at its closest approach to SE FL now. Also note that the ULL off the FL SW coast has moved little and will make it even harder on Fred.

The one which we'll have to watch for now is Grace. Grace formed yesterday and was much further SE than the NHC had originally thought. This has placed it further south than anticipated earlier and it has a chance of entering the Caribbean. The NHC track, no surprise, is center near Miami however if you look at the models 2 distinct scenarios are present. One that takes it into Cuba and the other that takes it east of Florida. They of course have to average them and pick Miami, despite none of the models are pointing at us. I suspect it will take the northern route however until it makes its move, and remains to our south we'll have to watch it. It way too early to say. Grace is presently a tiny system and would have to go thru a similar environment that Fred did, which took him out. It is only projected to be a 40-50 mph TS when it is near FL. The average NHC error in their tracks at 5 days is almost 200 miles. The current NHC track is unlikely.

Until next time,

                                                 Matt.

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Good morning.

At 5 AM TD Fred was located along the northern Coast of Cuba. Over the past 3 days Fred's track has changed little. Fred remains poorly organized with no weather near its center.

If you look at the Water Vapor Loops below you will notice several features. First Invest 95 moving WNW across the Central Tropical Atlantic. It will probably become our next tropical storm. On its current trajectory it looks like it will pass to the north of the Caribbean and likely miss Florida. Next is the upper level low south of Bermuda now appears to be moving SE. This will hopefully help Invest 95 to move more northwesterly. Next is the upper level low near Florida that I've been talking about for the past 3 days. It first was over Andros Island, yesterday morning over North Florida and it now appears to be just off the SW Florida coast and appears to be making a loop and I suspect is now heading SE and soon to be eastward. Just where this is in relation to Fred when it approaches Florida will be key. If it remains where it is and takes Fred head on it will significantly weaken or take out Fred. (appears unlikely as I think its moving). If it moves east of Fred it will tend to deflect Fred further west. (What I suspect will happen.) If it moves west of Fred it could deflect him eastward, closer to the West Coast of FL.

My current track is unchanged taking Fred near Key West and then in the direction of St Vincent's Island, just east of Panama City. Fred is anticipated to be a minimal Tropical storm when it approaches the Keys and the Panhandle. It currently has very little weather associated with it. The rain we had last night and will get today is related to the upper level low that I've been talking about.
Due to that ULL and the moisture associated with Fred we should see increased shower activity tonight and tomorrow but I do not anticipate a rain event for SE FL. Wind forecast is as stated previously. Not much. The Florida Panhandle will probably get more rain.

Until next time.

                                                                          Matt.

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Good morning. 

Tropical depression Fred is currently over the extreme northwest tip of Hispaniola and it’s about to enter “The Box”, see weather trivia section. Fred is currently poorly organized with no weather near the center of circulation having been disrupted during its trek across the island of Hispaniola. 
Fred is currently located approximately 25 miles south west of where the NHC had forecast it to be at this time yesterday. My track and forecast have not changed since yesterday.
What happens today with Fred will be key by tomorrow morning we should have a better idea. 

Until next time, Matt.

Good morning.

Yesterday evening a closed circulation center was found by Hurricane Hunters and TS Fred was officially named. Fred is currently just off the SE coast of Hispaniola as a minimal tropical storm. Of particular note is that Fred is a very small storm with storm force winds extending only 40 miles to the NE and NW of the center. Fred should be crossing Hispaniola today and its mountainous terrain. Of note small storms are particularly vulnerable to land and wind shear interactions. If you look at the Wind Shear Analysis below you will see that once Fred crosses Hispaniola and approaches Cuba it will be entering a high shear environment (everything in red). There is a distinct possibility that Fred will significantly weaken or even dissipate when in the region of Cuba. Even if it survives it is unlikely to more than a minimal tropical storm when at its closest approach to South Florida. After it enters the Gulf of Mexico shear will lessen and intensification may then be possible.

On the present NHC track it would pass over 100 miles to the SW of Southeast Florida at its closest approach. At that time the tropical storm wind field is expected to only extend 50-60 miles to the NE. Storm conditions are currently NOT anticipated for mainland SE FL. My current track is 20-30 miles west of theirs. If it proceeds on the NHC track mainland SE Florida would be expected to have winds in the 20s and maybe some showers Friday night and Saturday. Too early say right now.

If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice that the upper level low south of Bermuda appears to have stalled (and will likely not have any influence on Fred) and the upper level low that was over Andros Island yesterday is now just off the SE coast of FL and is slowly moving westward. Just where it is on Friday could have a significant affect on Fred, we'll have to see.

Until next time,

                                                       Matt.
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