Good morning.

At 5 AM TD Fred was located along the northern Coast of Cuba. Over the past 3 days Fred's track has changed little. Fred remains poorly organized with no weather near its center.

If you look at the Water Vapor Loops below you will notice several features. First Invest 95 moving WNW across the Central Tropical Atlantic. It will probably become our next tropical storm. On its current trajectory it looks like it will pass to the north of the Caribbean and likely miss Florida. Next is the upper level low south of Bermuda now appears to be moving SE. This will hopefully help Invest 95 to move more northwesterly. Next is the upper level low near Florida that I've been talking about for the past 3 days. It first was over Andros Island, yesterday morning over North Florida and it now appears to be just off the SW Florida coast and appears to be making a loop and I suspect is now heading SE and soon to be eastward. Just where this is in relation to Fred when it approaches Florida will be key. If it remains where it is and takes Fred head on it will significantly weaken or take out Fred. (appears unlikely as I think its moving). If it moves east of Fred it will tend to deflect Fred further west. (What I suspect will happen.) If it moves west of Fred it could deflect him eastward, closer to the West Coast of FL.

My current track is unchanged taking Fred near Key West and then in the direction of St Vincent's Island, just east of Panama City. Fred is anticipated to be a minimal Tropical storm when it approaches the Keys and the Panhandle. It currently has very little weather associated with it. The rain we had last night and will get today is related to the upper level low that I've been talking about.
Due to that ULL and the moisture associated with Fred we should see increased shower activity tonight and tomorrow but I do not anticipate a rain event for SE FL. Wind forecast is as stated previously. Not much. The Florida Panhandle will probably get more rain.

Until next time.

                                                                          Matt.

​

Good morning. 

Tropical depression Fred is currently over the extreme northwest tip of Hispaniola and it’s about to enter “The Box”, see weather trivia section. Fred is currently poorly organized with no weather near the center of circulation having been disrupted during its trek across the island of Hispaniola. 
Fred is currently located approximately 25 miles south west of where the NHC had forecast it to be at this time yesterday. My track and forecast have not changed since yesterday.
What happens today with Fred will be key by tomorrow morning we should have a better idea. 

Until next time, Matt.

Good morning.

Yesterday evening a closed circulation center was found by Hurricane Hunters and TS Fred was officially named. Fred is currently just off the SE coast of Hispaniola as a minimal tropical storm. Of particular note is that Fred is a very small storm with storm force winds extending only 40 miles to the NE and NW of the center. Fred should be crossing Hispaniola today and its mountainous terrain. Of note small storms are particularly vulnerable to land and wind shear interactions. If you look at the Wind Shear Analysis below you will see that once Fred crosses Hispaniola and approaches Cuba it will be entering a high shear environment (everything in red). There is a distinct possibility that Fred will significantly weaken or even dissipate when in the region of Cuba. Even if it survives it is unlikely to more than a minimal tropical storm when at its closest approach to South Florida. After it enters the Gulf of Mexico shear will lessen and intensification may then be possible.

On the present NHC track it would pass over 100 miles to the SW of Southeast Florida at its closest approach. At that time the tropical storm wind field is expected to only extend 50-60 miles to the NE. Storm conditions are currently NOT anticipated for mainland SE FL. My current track is 20-30 miles west of theirs. If it proceeds on the NHC track mainland SE Florida would be expected to have winds in the 20s and maybe some showers Friday night and Saturday. Too early say right now.

If you look at the water vapor loop below you will notice that the upper level low south of Bermuda appears to have stalled (and will likely not have any influence on Fred) and the upper level low that was over Andros Island yesterday is now just off the SE coast of FL and is slowly moving westward. Just where it is on Friday could have a significant affect on Fred, we'll have to see.

Until next time,

                                                       Matt.
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Good morning.

The NHC has named the disturbance discussed yesterday Potential Tropical Cyclone #6. If you look at the water vapor loop below you can see that it is becoming better organized and will likely become TS Fred later today or tonight. There are a couple of features to note on the water vapor loop. First is the upper level low to its north, south of Bermuda. Second is a smaller upper level low over Andros Island which appears to be moving slowly westward. Also note SW shear over Cuba. Just note these for now, they may or may not have an impact on where Fred goes later. The Hurricane Hunters will be flying into the system later today to better evaluate it.
It is currently headed toward Hispaniola. After that a track over or along the northern coast of Cuba followed by a NW turn into the Gulf of Mexico toward the northern Gulf Coast is anticipated. It is still too early to make an accurate forecast, especially as a circulation center has not been identified. In addition if it crosses Hispaniola reformation of the eye could happen in an unexpected location which could alter its course.

If you look at the SAL Analysis below you can see that there is dry air ahead of the system which will be moving along with it which should slow development. You will also notice that compared to the SAL images in July, the dry air and dust has become eroded and is appearing moth eaten along its southern borders. This is due to the gradual moistening of the air by tropical systems as they move eastward off of Africa. This trend should continue making development of future systems more likely.
If you look at the IR image of Africa below you can see the pipeline of systems starting to line up over tropical Africa. The Cape Verde Season is starting. The systems that come off the African Coast between 10 and 12 degrees latitude are the ones that we in Florida need to watch the most. 

I'll be watching.

Until next time, 
​
                                              Matt.

Good morning.

I'm writing about an area of disturbed weather east of the Lesser Antilles which is likely to become TS Fred in the next day or two. It is too early to make an accurate forecast as a center of circulation still does not exist however in looking at the Surface Map below I would anticipate that it would be steered toward Cuba or the Florida Straits and then the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Hopefully high pressure will remain over Florida and protect it. I'll be watching, but at present, I am not overly concerned.

Until next time.

                                                    Matt.

Good morning.

TS Elsa is currently just west of Cedar Key FL and should be making landfall in the Big Bend of Florida this morning. Elsa briefly regained hurricane status yesterday evening however due to shear, dry air entrapment, its proximity to land and the shallow waters of the Gulf it has weakened. The NHC put peak wind generously at 65 mph at 5 am despite a central pressure of 1004 mbs. It will most likely come in as a 50-60 mph tropical storm. The main effects will and have been heavy rainfall along the West Coast of Florida.
If you look at the radar image below you will see that there is little weather on the west side of the storm. Once ashore it should weaken fairly quickly being a weak system to begin with.

This will be my last update on Elsa. Fortunately another miss for SE Florida.

Until next time,

                                            Matt.

​

Good morning.

At 5 am TS Elsa was located in the vicinity of the Dry Tortugas and was moving NNW @ 12 mph. It is currently located about 20 miles to the east of where the NHC had anticipated it to be at this time. As a result the models and their track have shifted eastward. The NHC is now forecasting landfall about 40 miles to the east of where they had it yesterday and it is currently pretty much in line with my track from yesterday. My track has not changed.

If you look at the wind shear analysis below you can see that Elsa has around 25-30 knots of shear over it. This will slow development though there is a possibility that it could have winds near 75 mph at landfall tomorrow. 
If you look at the water vapor loop below you will see that Elsa appears very ragged, having been disrupted by its course across Cuba with little weather near its center of circulation. The upper level low remains, now over Louisiana. If you look at the Florida radar below you can see it starting to move up through the Florida Straits. Its center is on the west side of the rain mass which is currently spreading across the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.

Overall not much has changed and my forecast from yesterday still holds. With a moist S to SW flow over South Florida expect scattered rain showers today, especially this afternoon.

My best to all.

Until next time,

                                                Matt.

Good morning. 

At 5 am TS Elsa was located at 21.0 N & 79.9 W and was moving NW @ 14 mph with peak winds of 65 mph and a barometric pressure of 1004 mbs (again note this is relatively very high). It is currently due south of Miami, FL. Elsa is currently south and west of where the NHC had projected it to be at this time yesterday. In light of this the models have shifted further west and Elsa is now projected to pass near the Dry Tortugas tomorrow and being at its closest approach to SE Florida tomorrow afternoon. On the current NHC track it would pass around 200 miles to the west of the Miami area.
Elsa is currently a very compact storm with tropical storm force winds extending only 60 miles from the center. When it is west of South Florida the wind field is forecast to extend 90 miles. In light of this SE Florida will likely only see winds into the 20s with a few showers. Some rain but probably not a lot.

If you look at the Water Vapor Loop below you will notice a few features. First an upper level low just south of Louisiana, next a frontal boundary across southern Georgia, now drifting slightly north and TS Elsa south of Central Cuba slowly moving NW. My current track takes Elsa just north of the Isle of Pine crossing Western Cuba then tracking NW, then N, then NNE into the Big Bend area of Florida. Note the current model consensus takes it into the Panama City area. The official NHC track is east of that and I agree. Due to the upper level low in the northern Gulf of Mexico a slight deflection to the NE would be expected late in the forecast period. My current projection for landfall is between Homosassa Springs and Cedar Key centered around Waccasassa Bay Preserve State Park. The NHC track is a little west of that.

Fortunately this is not a strong system. Hopefully it will remain that way.

Until next time,

                                                        Matt.

PS. If you look at the Saharan Air layer Analysis below you can see that there has been a significant invasion of dry Saharan air and dust into the Tropical Atlantic. There must have been some big dust storms. The Tropics will probably be quiet for at least the next week or two.

Good morning.

With regards to Elsa there has been an interesting development overnight. When the Hurricane Hunters were in it early this morning they discovered that a new center had formed under the area of deepest convection well east of the previous center. The old center basically uncoupled and ran away from it. The net effect of this is Elsa is now centered south and east of the prior projections and is currently right along the NE coast of Jamaica. Because of this it is now better organized and moving slower and it could temporarily regain hurricane strength later today. Due to its more southerly location a track across eastern Cuba is much less likely and confidence is increasing in the current NHC track. After it crosses Central Cuba it should weaken, and increased shear north of Cuba will hamper re-intensification. The NHC is currently calling for it to be a  50-60 mph storm when it passes just west of Key West and at its closest approach to SE Florida. On the current track it would bring it around 150 miles west of the Miami area. Tropical storm force winds are projected to extend only 90-100 miles to the NE of the center that time. If the current track hold SE Florida would not experience storm conditions. Probably peak winds in the 30s in a few squalls and showers.

I'll write again tomorrow morning sooner if things should change,

                                                            Matt.

​

Good morning.

At 5 am H. Elsa was located at 16.2 N and 69.0 W with a minimum pressure of 998 mbs and was moving WNW @ 31 mph with peak winds of 75 mph (which is probably generous. You usually need a pressure of around 983 mbs to see that, see Weather Trivia on this site). Due to its rapid forward motion Elsa has become uncoupled and has weakened some with its center to the NW of most of its weather which is displaced to the SE.
On its present track it will most likely just nip the southern tip of Hispaniola. With its rapid speed and inertia it will be hard for it to change direction quickly. 
If you look at the models there are two main solutions emerging. The first which is the NHC's track continues Elsa on its present course passing along the southern coast of Cuba before crossing central Cuba and entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The cold front mentioned yesterday is now across northern Florida, where it will probably stall, would then direct it into the West Coast of Florida. The second solution takes Elsa into Eastern Cuba, where with the center displaced to the NW of its weather, it could cross eastern Cuba, or the eye could reform along the NE coast of Cuba. If this were to occur a track east of Florida toward Grand Bahama would be more likely. Due to anticipated land interactions Elsa is forecast to be a tropical storm when in the vicinity of Florida or the Bahamas. Due to significant inertia I would favor the first solution ? 60% probability, ? 40% for the later. Just where it is around this time tomorrow will be the key.
On the present NHC track SE Florida would receive peak winds in the 30s-40s with a lot of rain. If it takes the eastern track 20s-30s with little rain. If it should go in between and hit South Florida directly 60s-70s  (less likely ? 10% chance) and lots of rain . 

I'll write again tomorrow, sooner if needed.

Until next time,
                                         
​                                                       Matt.