Good morning.

Just a quick update. So far so good. The combination of strong high pressure over the Atlantic and abundant dust storms over North Africa with resultant abundant Saharan dust and hot dry air over the Atlantic has kept a lid on tropical development in the Atlantic Basin to date. 
This has also lead to a hot dry summer for South Florida as well. It will probably take at least 2-3 weeks before we see any significant development as it will take time and several systems to erode the dust that is out there and it continues to move WSW across the Atlantic. In addition the high pressure should keep any systems well south of the US East Coast and Florida for a while. I anticipate that we won't see much until late August / September. As noted earlier the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico will be the areas to watch later in the season, ? September/ October?

Wishing everyone a quiet 2022 Hurricane Season.

                                                                          Matt.

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Tropical Storm Alex was named this morning well after crossing the Florida peninsula yesterday. It is currently headed out to sea and should pass north of Bermuda.

Rainfall in Miami-Dade County ranged from 6-12”. The greatest rainfall actually fell in Biscayne Bay with over 15 inches of rain wetting the fish. Peak winds were in the 10s to low 20s with a single gust to 31 mph recorded at Miami International Airport. Similar winds were noted on the SW coast. No storm conditions were recorded. (It was not a depression nor tropical storm when it crossed Florida.)

Rainfall at my house totaled 11.53 inches again showing the significance of rain events.

Until next time,

                                                       Matt.
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Good morning.

Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 remains a potential. It has not developed into a Depression nor a Tropical Storm and it probably won't until after it crosses Florida. Most of its associated weather has already moved east of the state. The NHC has found that it continues to be a broad trough of low pressure with peak winds recorded in the 30s. If you look at the radar below you can see a low pressure circulation center approaching the Fort Myers area. The NHC is currently expecting a new low pressure center to form east of the Central Florida Peninsula and effectively "jump" into the Atlantic. The continuous rain of last night is over, today we'll see improving conditions with bands of rain with further improvement in conditions by early afternoon.
Rainfall totals so far are in the 4-8" range and should end up in the 5-10" range when the event ends.

Florida should be fine and end up with a significant recharge of our freshwater reservoirs including Lake Okeechobee and we'll all be better off because of this.

Until next time,
                                               Matt.

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Good evening.

"Potential Tropical Cyclone #1" continues to head toward SW Florida. Hurricane Hunters were in the system recently and were still unable to find a discrete center of circulation nor any storm force winds. It remains a trough of low pressure with several vortices along it. Frankly it is irrelevant. This will be  a RAIN EVENT. It remains in a high shear environment and the estimated center remains just to the west of the western most convection. It rained a lot in South and Central Florida today however the real rain will begin tonight and last through Saturday afternoon. Rainfall estimates have been increased to 6-12" with some areas potentially receiving up to 20 inches. Currently the NHC is predicting it to be a 40-45 mph storm at land fall early tomorrow afternoon. As all the weather is east of the center, once it passes conditions will improve quickly. It will speed up as it approaches.

My estimates for location and winds for SE FL have not changes, winds 20s with gusts to 30s. The Fort Myers area remains at greatest risk however as it is a weak diffuse system all of SW Florida will receive similar weather. Heavy rain with wInds  in the 30s with gusts to 40s.

My best to all.

Until next time,
                                            Matt.

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Good afternoon.

Since yesterday's forecast nothing has changed. The NHC is giving the low pressure system currently over the NW Yucatan Peninsula an 80% chance of tropical development over the next 2 days. Due to high shear over the system all of the associated weather is displaced to the east of the low. This should help to slow development and should prevent it from becoming too strong.
The Ft. Myers area remains at highest risk though due to an anticipated weak system the weather should be fairly diffuse. For SE Florida winds in the 20s with gusts to 30s with 5-10+ inches of rain are anticipated. SW FL should have similar rainfall with higher winds.

I'll probably post again tomorrow afternoon. South Florida should expect a blustery and rainy Friday and Saturday.

Until next time,
                                                      Matt.

Good morning.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3, respectively. The list of names for 2022 is as follows:

Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen  Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie and Walter .

I am writing about an area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula and the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC is currently giving it a 70% chance for a tropical depression to form within the next 5 days. There is currently an old frontal boundary in the region of lake Okeechobee which would tend to draw whatever weather that does develop towards SW Florida. Fortunately wind shear is very high over the Gulf of Mexico and even if it should develop it is unlikely to become more than a weak to medium strength tropical storm. Hurricane conditions would be very unlikely. As no center of circulation currently exists it would be very difficult to predict exactly where it would go at this time however the Ft Myers area currently appears to be at greatest risk. Whether or not tropical development occurs anticipate rain across South Florida the next few days greatest on Friday and Saturday.

I'll be following it and will keep you posted.

Until next time,

                                                    Matt.

Good morning.

Just a quick statement referring to some interesting data / images.

Below first is the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Loop Current which carries warm water from the Caribbean into the GOM then passes through the Florida Straits and becomes the Gulf Stream. You can see it well defined along with several warm water eddies in the western GOM.

Next is the Heat Content of the Western Caribbean and the GOM which is a combination of water temperatures and warm water to depths > 100 feet. It shows a huge amount of heat to great depths already (actually to over 300 feet) in the East Central GOM. This is more and further north than is usually seen this time of year.

Next is the Saharan Air layer Analysis. Like last year there have been a lot of dust storms over northern Africa this year with abundant dust and dry air extending over the Tropical and Western Atlantic. (This will make tropical development in these areas difficult.)

The bottom line. The Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean will be the areas to watch June thru November. By late August / September the SAL should be mitigated and we'll be re-evaluating the Atlantic (and the time in between).

Until next time.

                                                   Matt.

Good morning.

2022 is currently forecast to be an above average hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. La Nina conditions returned in September last year, however thanks to Sam the 2021 season ended quietly. Whereas the NWS had expected the current La Nina to end by early summer, the past month has actually seen a further drop in water temperatures in the eastern Pacific. It is now looking more likely the the present La Nina will persist through most if not all of the 2022 Hurricane Season. La Ninas are associated with reduced shear across the Caribbean and Western Atlantic and subsequently are usually associated with more tropical storms and hurricanes. So far the warmest waters are in the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic. Therefore the areas of greatest risk this year appear to be the north central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, the Bahamas and SE Florida and the Carolinas. It does NOT mean all of these areas will have storms this years. Just greater than average risk. For SE Florida for example, we see hurricane conditions on average 1 in 7 years or 14% risk. Even if the risk was 20%, it is still unlikely that any specific area will have a storm.

2021 was an extremely dry year at my house with total rainfall of only 25.45" well below my 32 year running average of 66.79". I believe this was a very localized phenomenon as other parts of South Florida were not nearly as dry. As opposed to 2020 we had no rain events. (See Preseason Forecast from last year 4-23-21.)

Remember the absolute number of storms is not what is important, its where they go. Last year was on overall active year however most went out to sea. 

Hopefully this year they all will.

With best wishes to all,

                                                                     Matt.

Thank God For Sam. (TGFS)

Today marks the official end of the 2021 Hurricane Season and TGFS.

2021 was overall an active season with regards to the absolute number of storms however aside from Hurricane Ida it was a good year for the US in general. As suspected in my 4-23-21 Preseason Update Florida and the Northern and Eastern Gulf Coasts saw the bulk of the activity.
On 7/7/21 TS Elsa made landfall along the Big Bend area of Florida as a 65 mph TS.
On 8/16/21 TS Fred made landfall on the Florida Panhandle near Panama City as a 50 mph TS.
The only significant storm was Hurricane Ida which made landfall along the Louisiana coast passing over Houma, LA as a Cat 4 hurricane causing significant damage. It fortunately passed far enough west of NOLA to spare it from the worst of it.

As forecast La Nina conditions returned in September, which are usually associated with increased storm activity, however thanks to Sam, an unusually slow moving, long lived major hurricane which slowly moved out to sea not making any landfall, a huge amount of heat was removed out of a key portion of the tropical Atlantic in September effectively wiping out all of the systems which followed in its wake. Subsequently instead of a busy finish, the 2021 season ended quietly with no significant activity after Sam. Never knock a White Knight.

Wishing everyone a great Holiday Season and New Years,

                                                       Matt.

Good morning.

Just a quick update. Everything looks good for the time being.

There are several systems out there however none currently pose a threat to the US. They are all moving out to sea. Hurricane Sam remains a major hurricane and has been doing a great job in removing a huge amount of heat from a broad swath of the Tropical Atlantic moving very slowly over the past week, producing significant up-welling and cooling the waters under it. Each storm does its part in reducing the potential of future storms. Having all of these out there, moving away, is a good thing and better than if they didn't exist at all. High pressure remains over Florida and has been protecting the state.

Until next time,

                                            Matt.