Good morning.
I'm writing about a few areas in the tropics which we'll need to watch. See charts above. The first is a tropical wave just north of Hispaniola which is on the back side of an upper level low. It is headed our way and should enhance rain chances this weekend. High shear from the upper level low should prevent development. Harvey is headed toward Belize and should not affect us. The area in the mid Atlantic labeled 1 is headed in our general direction. It is currently in a high shear environment and should remain so until just prior to getting into our vicinity which should be middle of next week. If it should form it would probably be a tropical storm at best. Depending on the exact location of the center if and when that occurred it would tend to head either toward South Florida (currently around or south of the Lake Okeechobee region) or approach the coast and then move N and NE missing the state. The area labeled 2 and the wave currently over Africa should both be pulled north into the Mid Atlantic Trough and miss the US.
I'll write further as things develop, or not.
Have a good weekend, Matt.
PS. I'll be in NE Georgia on Monday 8-21, hopefully weather permitting, watching the Eclipse !
I'm writing about a few areas in the tropics which we'll need to watch. See charts above. The first is a tropical wave just north of Hispaniola which is on the back side of an upper level low. It is headed our way and should enhance rain chances this weekend. High shear from the upper level low should prevent development. Harvey is headed toward Belize and should not affect us. The area in the mid Atlantic labeled 1 is headed in our general direction. It is currently in a high shear environment and should remain so until just prior to getting into our vicinity which should be middle of next week. If it should form it would probably be a tropical storm at best. Depending on the exact location of the center if and when that occurred it would tend to head either toward South Florida (currently around or south of the Lake Okeechobee region) or approach the coast and then move N and NE missing the state. The area labeled 2 and the wave currently over Africa should both be pulled north into the Mid Atlantic Trough and miss the US.
I'll write further as things develop, or not.
Have a good weekend, Matt.
PS. I'll be in NE Georgia on Monday 8-21, hopefully weather permitting, watching the Eclipse !