Good morning.
Delta has been undergoing rapid intensification since this time yesterday when it was a depression with 35 mph winds. They are now 100 mph and further rapid intensification is forecast and it will likely become a Cat 3 or 4 storm later today. Yesterday it moved due west rather than NW as was forecast and is now well south and west of where the NHC had forecast it to be. In light of this all of the models , for now, have shifted westward. It is presently in an area of low shear and warm water however shear will increase markedly after it moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico.. Delta is currently a very compact storm with hurricane force winds extending only 10-20 miles from the center and storm force winds extending 60-80 miles from the center. It will be much larger after it enters the Gulf.
Gamma has dissipated and its remnants are currently over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. They will be drawn into Delta late tonight and early tomorrow as Delta approaches the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
In looking at the surface map below you can see the "window" centered over Louisiana, however due to shear most of Delta's weather is likely to be displaced to the east of the center. The NHC is still forecasting it to make landfall along the northern Gulf coast as a 100 mph Cat 2, due to shear and cooler waters close to shore, however its too soon to say.
I'll continue to watch for changes.
Until next time, Matt.
PS. I'm going to try and post a Geo-Satellite Color Loop this afternoon which should be impressive by then. We should be seeing a distinct eye by then.
Delta has been undergoing rapid intensification since this time yesterday when it was a depression with 35 mph winds. They are now 100 mph and further rapid intensification is forecast and it will likely become a Cat 3 or 4 storm later today. Yesterday it moved due west rather than NW as was forecast and is now well south and west of where the NHC had forecast it to be. In light of this all of the models , for now, have shifted westward. It is presently in an area of low shear and warm water however shear will increase markedly after it moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico.. Delta is currently a very compact storm with hurricane force winds extending only 10-20 miles from the center and storm force winds extending 60-80 miles from the center. It will be much larger after it enters the Gulf.
Gamma has dissipated and its remnants are currently over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. They will be drawn into Delta late tonight and early tomorrow as Delta approaches the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
In looking at the surface map below you can see the "window" centered over Louisiana, however due to shear most of Delta's weather is likely to be displaced to the east of the center. The NHC is still forecasting it to make landfall along the northern Gulf coast as a 100 mph Cat 2, due to shear and cooler waters close to shore, however its too soon to say.
I'll continue to watch for changes.
Until next time, Matt.
PS. I'm going to try and post a Geo-Satellite Color Loop this afternoon which should be impressive by then. We should be seeing a distinct eye by then.